BERSATU and PKR may be contesting more seats than their allies in the Pakatan Harapan opposition coalition, but they will face a tougher general election than their allies.

Such were the findings of the study “Election Forecast for Pakatan Harapan (PH) in Peninsular Malaysia (GE14)” conducted by political social media research outfit Politweet. The study found that most voters in the 52 federal seats to be contested by Bersatu were more inclined to support Barisan Nasional.

A large 62% leaned towards BN, while only 27% preferred the opposition. The remaining 11% were fence-sitters.

Uphill climb

Politweet explained that Bersatu, which is contesting 44 rural Malay-majority seats out of the total 52, would find it challenging to win straight fights against BN, and even more so three-cornered fights.

“In the last polls, 35 of the 52 seats (allotted to Bersatu) were contested by PAS. It means Bersatu will face an even greater challenge in three-cornered fights with PAS (also contesting),” the research firm said.

Bersatu’s other seats are urban (2) and semi-urban (6). There are a total 2.99 million voters in its 52 allotted seats.

PKR gets even odds

Ally PKR fared better with voters in the 51 seats it is contesting. The voters were split 40% for the opposition and 39% for BN. The rest were fence-sitters.

“PKR is contesting a mix of seats with fairly evenly split opposition and BN voters.”

There are 4.31 million voters in PKR’s 51 seats. They are mostly semi-urban seats at 23, with 14 seats each in rural and urban areas.

Amanah gets opposition-friendly seats but…

PAS splinter party Amanah is contesting 27 seats with 2.13 million voters, half of which were found to be leaning towards the opposition, 35% towards BN, and 15% fence-sitters.

Most of its seats are also rural Malay-majority seats. Only five seats each are in urban and semi-urban areas.

“Amanah is contesting seats with a large proportion of opposition-leaning voters.

“But because 26 of the seats were contested by PAS in the last polls, a large share of voters will be split between the two opposition parties,” Politweet said.

PAS was an ally until it broke ties with DAP and PKR, ending the old Pakatan Rakyat coalition. The Islamist party is expected to contest against its former colleagues and create three-cornered fights in the process.

DAP has it easiest

DAP is expected to have the easiest fight with 63% of 2.79 million voters in 35 seats supportive of the opposition. Fence-sitters at 20% also outnumber the 17% leaning towards BN.

Of the 35 seats, 21 are predominantly-Chinese, 19 urban, 10 semi-urban, and six rural seats. Twelve are mixed seats and only two are Malay-majority.

“DAP is contesting mostly urban and semi-urban Chinese majority seats with a large number of opposition-leaning voters.”

Need to win over BN supporters, more East Malaysian seats

Politweet said an election simulation showed that in a straight fight between PH and BN, the opposition coalition would take Putrajaya with a five-point swing of support that delivered 115 seats.

But three cornered-fights with PAS in the picture would likely benefit BN.

Politweet said while PAS took away anti-BN votes from PH, the coalition could overcome this by winning over pro-BN supporters

“If PH can do this, it will achieve a five-point (support) swing. This will lead to record PH victories in Kedah and Johor, and winning the federal government.”

Politweet said PH also needed to win East Malaysia federal seats, as a three-seat majority win would not be enough to form a stable government. 

“A stronger swing of support and wins in East Malaysia will be important for PH. Due to high risk seats, PH needs to target an additional 10 or more seats in East Malaysia.

“Given the performance of the opposition in the Sarawak state elections in 2016, and the current state of the opposition in Sabah, we expect it to be difficult for PH to win 10 seats,” it said.

Tough fight overall for PH

In the study based on data from the electoral roll in the first quarter of 2017, Politweet estimated 44% of voters overall leaned towards the opposition and 39% towards BN. The rest were on the fence.

The support patterns had changed little since the last polls, it said. 

In the 13th general election, the same percentage of voters preferred the opposition and 37%, BN. Fence-sitters made up 18%.

“If voter sentiment in the 14th general election remains the same as in the last election, we can expect Bersatu and Amanah to win few seats,” the research firm said.

It also found that new voters on the peninsula were almost equally split between BN and the opposition. It estimated that 44% leaned towards the opposition while 45% were for BN. The rest are fence-sitters.

The Politweet study said the constituency redelineation, which has not been confirmed, might improve BN’s winning chances in 10 seats now held by PAS, Amanah and PKR.

The seats are Bukit Gantang, Kapar, Sepang, Lembah Pantai, Batu Pahat, Teluk Kemang, Bukit Katil, Hulu Langat, Lumut and Kuala Nerus.

Another issue to consider, Politweet said, was the declining interest in political parties on Facebook. Interest was high in December 2015 at 63.57% but plunged to 29.5% last month.

Observations on Twitter also showed weak support for opposition parties, which also indicated that support from the youth would be a problem in the coming polls, the research firm said.

As of the first quarter of last year, peninsular voters are 60.76% Malay and Muslim Bumiputera, 29.45% Chinese, 8.3% Indian, 1.16% others, and 0.18% and 0.15% Bumiputera from Sarawak and Sabah, respectively.

Of the new voters, 71.3% are Malay, 21.08% Chinese, 6.24% Indian, 1.15% others, and 0.16% and 0.06% Bumiputera from Sarawak and Sabah, respectively. – January 16, 2018.