Voters asked to pick stability or hope at GE14

Chan Kok Leong Chan Kok Leong Updated 8 years ago · Published on 9 Jan 2018 7:00AM · 9 Comments

Umno president Najib Razak (right) with his deputy, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, at last month's general assembly. The duo mean status quo for the country and do not offer anything new, says a researcher. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, January 9, 2018.

THE 14th general election will be a toss-up between stability and the promise to end corruption, said political analysts.

And while Pakatan Harapan is offering the chance to reform, Barisan Nasional’s offer of political stability is reassuring to many, they added.

“From a policy perspective, the most striking offer from the Dr Mahathir Mohamad-Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail pairing is the promise to end corruption.

“While other promises, such as zero goods and services tax (GST), reducing National Higher Education Fund Corporation (PTPTN) loans or free English Premier League matches seem far-fetched, their promise to end corruption has far-reaching consequences,” said Ilham Centre director Hisommudin Bakar, who conducts qualitative research among Malaysian voters.

By eradicating or even reducing corruption, Malaysia can begin rebuilding its international image and improve investors’ confidence, said the Universiti Malaya (UM) political science graduate.

On the other hand, the Najib Razak-Ahmad Zahid Hamidi pairing means status quo for the country and does not offer anything new, said the 38-year-old researcher.

“The Barisan Nasional pair can only offer political and economic stability. Sure, the economy has improved and the big projects like ECRL and MRT will go on this year but it’s nothing new.

“But unlike PH, BN has less infighting and the stability is reassuring to the civil service and rural voters.”

A 2017 Transparency International survey of about 22,000 showed that 59% of Malaysians believed that corruption had worsened recently.

The People and Corruption: Asia Pacific (Global Corruption Barometer) said 62% of Malaysians surveyed felt the government was doing badly at fighting corruption.

A recent UM survey also showed that voters surveyed in 12 federal seats wanted corrupt-free leaders. 

UM Associate Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the PH pair looked “solid” and Dr Mahathir has now turned into a “uniting” factor in the opposition.

“That was a high point for PH. Dr Mahathir’s gesture to Anwar Ibrahim and family and PH’s nomination showed that the opposition is able to move on and forgive him for what he did to them,” said Awang Azman.

Policy wise, he expected Dr Mahathir to return to his old-and-tested formula of attracting foreign investors while Najib will continue pandering to China for investments.

Where Najib has given many opportunities to China to invest here and is on the country’s good books, Dr Mahathir will want to dictate the type of investments China brings.

“Dr Mahathir will focus on investments that involve the transfer of technology in order to create more jobs. If he takes over, he may even freeze some of China’s investments that do not have any long-term gains for Malaysia.

“He doesn’t want the same kind of negative impact China had on Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe.”

‘Kak Wan’ v Zahid

On this score, Zahid has the upper hand, said Awang Azman, who heads UM’s Academy of Malay Studies.

“Zahid has shown strong leadership and has good grassroots support. He is someone capable of replacing Najib if Umno wants a new leader but Dr Wan Azizah looks like an interim leader only.

“And there’s some uncertainty about what will happen after her husband, Anwar Ibrahim, is released. Voters don’t know what will happen to the Dr Mahathir-Dr Wan Azizah partnership after that,” Awang Azman said.

The PKR president is a symbol of the Anwar family and is still important to unite the opposition vote, said the UM academic.

But the nomination of “Kak Wan” to be the first woman deputy prime minister by PH may work in the opposition’s favour, said Hisommudin.

“This is a new recipe and it has never happened before. And so, it will be interesting how women voters react to the first coalition to field a woman as a deputy prime minister.

“On the negative side, the PH pairing has some uncertainty about it. Are Dr Mahathir and Dr Wan Azizah interim leaders? What will happen after Anwar is released?

“How will Anwar become the next prime minister when by law, he cannot contest because of the prison sentence? These are important questions that PH has to answer ahead of GE14.

“There is a lot of uncertainty in the PH pairing compared with its counterpart. If BN wins, I expect Najib to be secure. And having beaten his fiercest critic Dr Mahathir, Najib will go on to rule for another five years and more,” said Hisommudin. 

Who will voters pick?

Though all the four leaders are veterans and come from the elite political class, they represent the difference between status quo and change, said lawyer Syahredzan Johan.

“I think none of the pairing is particularly exciting as all four are veterans. We are not looking at a Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn, who are veterans but outsiders. 

“Nor are we looking at our version of Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron or Jacinda Ardern – young politicians taking up the mantle of leading the country. So, in terms of the pairings, they are not particularly fresh or exciting.

“But I think it will boil down to what the pairings represent. Najib and Zahid – the status quo and the continuation of the long, unbroken BN rule. And Dr Mahathir and Dr Wan Azizah – the possibility of change, a new beginning and the end of the BN winning streak.”

Syahredzan, who is active on the forum circuit and a human rights lawyer, said voters are likely to pick based on which pairing represents the better vision of Malaysia for the next five years.

“Viewed from this perspective, the PH pairing is the more ‘exciting’ one, for the simple reason that it represents hope for a change. Not because they themselves are exciting candidates,” said the 35-year-old. – January 9, 2018.

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Comments

  • Asal bukan umno BN PAS we will support..

    Posted 8 years ago by Ali Along · Reply

  • WHAT RAKYAT WANT IS CHANGE - Change for better wages, jobs and income, lower cost including less taxes, better education, LESS social conflicts and problems, less corruption. In other words, both the BN govt and opposition IS NOT OFFERING what they want. BN offer is not even stability, they are offering more religosity with partnership with PAS, they are MORE sandiwara on corruption, more debt and spending - they are offering the stability of the wrong direction in the first place. BUT PH IS NOT offering certainty of change, hope is not certain for some.

    Posted 8 years ago by Bigjoe Lam · Reply

    • Big Joe - I agree with you. But when it comes to the crunch - you eat bullshit or you drink cow's urine. Both are bad but one is much easier to consume - ie Cow's Unrine (PH). Recycled politicians - Tun Mahatir, Muhyiddin & Anwar are know racist, religious bigot & twice confirmed sadomy.

      Posted 8 years ago by Chris Ng · Reply

  • We are sick of BN/UMNO and we want change. Change it must.

    Posted 8 years ago by Awang Top · Reply

  • Stabilty under BN? Yes you can choose stability and accept all the destruction and kleptocracy.
    Is that what you agree and accept?

    We need change...especially reforms that will ensure transparency and rule of law. I certainly prefer reform rather than stability that will further the destruction of our nation. To die hoping is much better than being alive in hopelessness.

    Posted 8 years ago by Putra Kraken · Reply

  • Either party does not offer much hopes.One thing for sure, if BN wins and with the Govt's debts, there is possibility that GST will increase , cost of living will increase and we will pay more taxes as BN did not leave much for development expenditure and has a huge operating expenses in the budget.
    On the other hand, if PH can put credible candidates compared to BN's abang adik candidates, it might steal a chance to sneak thru but expect a lot of kataks and chaotic moments and the rakyat will get caught in between.It could be an impasse where economy come a halt.

    Posted 8 years ago by Can Lim · Reply

  • It is a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Many may be cynical and decide to stay on the side lines and watch. By doing so they are actually making a choice, a choice to maintain the status quo i.e. BN. I can only see the situation getting worse if Najib stays on because he will try to settle the 1MDB debt by either using the various Govt agencies or he will get the country into more debt which ultimately we the Rakyaat have pay. Though there will be some uncertainty if the PH comes to power we have to take the risk and hope the new Govt will sort things out. The current opposition are doing well in the managing Penang and Selangor. On this basis we should give PH an opportunity.

    Posted 8 years ago by Saham san · Reply

  • Chinese would continue to vote the same way as in GE 13 despite Mahathir being named the PM candidate, because they know that 93 is near 100, and Mahathir cannot do more harm than he had done in 22 plus Najib's 9 years. The results would depend on voters who voted PAS in GE 13 and how they choose now among Pribumi and Amanah and PAS. UMNO members who are not actively involved in politics want status quo. They are not bothered with the policy options in economic sphere.

    Pribumi's MPs can come from cross-overs and Najib should get his answers on 1MDB ready for court cases.

    Posted 8 years ago by Meng Kow Loh · Reply

  • Bad piece of analogy and write up. Let's take BN for a start. What stability ???. More of a stable government in the process of ensuring a continuious plundering and massive corruptions without any opposition to rock the boat. Is that stability that the writer is presuming on the incumbent Government. Is that the options for such an environment of psyeudo peace and tranqulity in the country where the obvious undercurrent is in fully in chaotic conditions. The country humongus wealth are depleted thru corruptions and rent seeking process with blatant funds transfer being viewed like an ordinary remittance. Is that the stability of such nature that is offer to us?? Very often we have bigots in religious issues and also jack asses creating commotions in opposition states to derail the administration. Is that still view as an enhancer of stability. Such stability is only like a ticking time bomb. When the country becomes bankrupt and always in constant fear of racial conflicts will only lead to a "failed state" in the making. This is non other than a process of enforced dictatorial adminstration thru suppresive acts and laws in the guise of stability. What status quo?? Pairing of both misfits and allowing their incompetency to continue dishing out miseries and no plans whatsoever to uplift the economic well being of the Rakyat. What BRIM??when it is funded by apportioning a minute sum from the GST plan which has been mutilated from its true form of a sensible economic system of taxation for the greater good of the rakyat. The implementation is a total deformed structure of taxation devised to increase hardship with unresonable form of taxation in every process of the supply chain resulting in stiffling the economic developement and blatantly more for personal benefits in UmnoBN leaders . All in all the rakyat are being f@#k by such so called stability process in legalising a strategic robbery plan in the hideous form of GST. China Investment ???????????? Another scandalised debacles , Another greatest heist in the country conducted by our leaders. Strikinly and known world wide that China investment support in building of infrasturcture in other countries are almost a third or half the price. We are being bullshited or like Anina phrase kencing kaw kaw by our dynamic leader who is seeking continuity of leadership.. If that is on the platters offered to us I would rather have a new regime working very hard in implementing instituinal reforms for a revival of the country. We can go along with the ups and down and even some failures from the new regime in their long ardous journey to put back the country on the right track for it is acceptable as it is not only in their lack of want in trying but the passion to see unity , peace and economic well being of the rakyat. Can the "stable" UmnoBN understand and deliver that???????? IF THE NEW REGIME PLAY US OUT IT IS ONLY A TERM FOR THEM AS WE THE RAKYAT ARE NOW IN OFFENSIVE MODE AND GETTING USE TO ACCEPTING CHANGE

    Posted 8 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply