POLITICAL pollsters need to interview the respondents in their surveys more deeply for more accurate results, said analysts. 

“The weakness of telephone polling, for instance, is that it does not give an accurate reading of the respondents. More so when the political literacy of the respondents is unclear,” said Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

He said accuracy was crucial when the sample number of respondents was not of a sufficiently large size.

Awang Azman was commenting on Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research’s latest survey showing 67% approval for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin.

The results are deemed to be inaccurate by various critics on social media following a backlash against the government as seen from the #KerajaanGagal hashtag recently trending on Twitter.

In contrast, an online poll last month by Pakatan Harapan-linked think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan last month said only two in 10 Malaysians wanted Muhyiddin to remain prime minister. 

When contacted, a Merdeka Centre official said the research centre would respond tomorrow with a statement.

Awang Azman, who heads UM’s Malay ethnic studies, said it was important to know the respondents’ level of political literacy as Malays were not homogenous in their political views.

“A more accurate reading can only be obtained through in-depth interviews. Particularly, if Merdeka had asked about the Perikatan Nasional government that resulted from the Sheraton Move in 2020.”

He said Muhyiddin should call for elections now if it were true that he enjoyed 83% support among Malays and 67% overall. 

“If that were the case, Bersatu and PN would surely win big if elections were to be held now. The accuracy of a survey can only be tested through the general election,” said Awang Azman, who is a fellow of UM’s Centre for Democracy and Elections.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar also said telephone surveys were inadequate to achieve accurate results.

“Ilham conducts face-to-face interviews. I don’t doubt the methodology of other pollsters to identify the demographic group but phone interviews are limited,” said Hisomuddin.

Unlike 2018 when a six-decade regime was toppled, the current political issues are more complicated, particularly for Malay voters, said Hisomuddin.

“Although many Malay voters we interviewed recently said they were pro-government, they appeared confused when presented with different scenarios.

“When we asked whether they would vote for PN and Barisan Nasional/Umno in the Malay seats, many said Umno. 

“So on one hand they said they would support Muhyiddin or PN, but when asked to vote, they still chose BN,” said Hisomuddin.

The current political situation, following Umno’s rejection of Bersatu, has added to voters’ confusion, he added.

The polls have not proved to be particularly accurate, in regards to voters’ sentiment.

In the run-up to the May 2018 elections, Merdeka Centre in January had predicted a two-thirds majority for BN. As it turned out, BN did not only fail to achieve that but lost the elections altogether.

In March the same year, PKR-linked Invoke Malaysia forecasted PAS would lose all its seats in the general election. PAS won 18 seats.

And just days before the Tanjung Piai by-election in November 2019, IDE had predicted a slim victory for PH with 50% support of Chinese voters. Pakatan was soundly whipped by BN, losing at most of the Chinese-majority polling stations. – April 26, 2021.