Najib will win GE14, regain two-thirds majority, says survey

The Malaysian Insight

Prime Minister Najib Razak may look forward to a strong finish in the next general election, a poll has indicated. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, January 7, 2018.

DR Mahathir Mohamad’s mission to drive Prime Minister Najib Razak out of Putrajaya in the 14th general election will fail, a nationwide survey has shown.

The Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research poll conducted in December finds that although Barisan Nasional’s (BN) share of the popular vote is likely to shrink further, a combination of three-cornered fights and redelineation could enable the coalition to regain a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat.

Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) fractious nature could also drive the opposition’s failure, concludes the the survey, which results were presented at the CIMB Malaysia Corporate Day last week.

“BN is just 13 seats short of regaining a two-thirds majority in Dewan Rakyat. With an intra-opposition deal looking increasingly remote, BN is in a position to regain its two-thirds,” said Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian.

“The opposition’s prospects range from slim to zero as PAS leaders appear keen to prevent a PH victory. PAS seems ready to assist Umno on the grounds of preserving Malay political hegemony.”

PAS may see losses in Kelantan and Selangor in return for “unspecified rewards”, the survey said.

In short, BN’s projected victory will have little to do with Najib’s policies or the coalition’s appeal.

If Najib wins, he will owe much of his victory to PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, whose decision to let his party stand apart from PH would have effectively split the Malay vote for the opposition to tilt the contest in Umno’s favour.

Key battle states in GE14 will be Kedah, Selangor, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor, and Sabah.

Voters sentiment towards PH on the decline

The survey notes that public opinion of the opposition took a dip in December.

Only 21% of the total respondents said they are “happy” with PH, and only 13% of Malay respondents feel the same.

At the same time, opinion of the government has steadily improved since September although the public mood remains cautious due to economic and political factors.

In December, 37% of respondents said the country was headed in the right direction and 50% disagreed.

The study shows that the top three concerns of Malaysians are still inflation (68%), corruption (36%) and job opportunities (19%).

Other concerns are housing, political instability, preservation of Malay rights, weakness of leadership, and deteriorating race relations.

That the prime minister’s integrity was called into question and the 1Malaysia Development Bhd financial scandal are the respondents’ least concerns, at 3% and 2%, respectively. 

Najib’s position in Umno has strengthened, due to the lack of credible alternative leadership, his Malay-Muslim image, and improving economic sentiments – January 7, 2018.

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  • Title should be 'Najib will cheat to win GE 14,regain thirds majority

    Posted 6 years ago by Leslie Chan · Reply

  • Too.many people not understand 1MDB is not about just stolen money. The destruction of governance that came with it is disaster waiting to happen. Cost of living and wages problems will blow up if it's not fixed. It is about income and cost for living but when it happens it's too late to fix.

    Posted 6 years ago by Bigjoe Lam · Reply

    • You want to restore better governance by introducing Mahathirism. GOOD LUCK. The reason PH wants Mahathir is of the fact that they think PH could ride on him. PPBM might ally with UMNO in the end.

      U turn can keep happening.

      Cost of living and wages problems will blow up if it's not fixed.

      Sorry man, PH has no better manifesto at the moment except replacing Banglas with you.

      Many PH especially rich DAP supporters relied economy of cheap labor.

      Bangla is much preferred than you. What they want is your VOTE only.

      DAP will not dare to challenge the status quo as that would weaken PH support from rural Tongkat Supremacist Mahathir Made Malays.

      The new PH will also not fire the Malay dominated government servants for you.

      MCA and Gerakan are reduced to chow kow.

      You want better wages - cut some skin underneath, profess some verbs - best is to be n love with one of them and consummate.

      Posted 6 years ago by Carl Lee · Reply

  • Something is wrong. MCA, Gerakan, MIC should be wiped out in this GE. Does not add up.

    Posted 6 years ago by Bigjoe Lam · Reply

  • "I was the 'victim' of an assumption that I would win." — Hilary Clinton

    Posted 6 years ago by Raz Musa · Reply

  • Survey is purely based on prediction or probably hearsay but Murphy's Law applies - Expect the Unexpected.
    If one follows the update on Malaysoa politicd as days drawing nearer to GE 14 things look like getting out of hand and childish rival between party. Party can have good track records but just one mistakes from any individual in the party will be disaster or backlash . So all prediction or survey will just be a headline.

    Posted 6 years ago by Abdul Rahman Abdul Razak · Reply

  • ha ha...''merdeka centre''....

    Posted 5 years ago by Lipdah Lia · Reply