THE Umno-Perikatan Nasional situation remains fluid despite an “official” break-up, said analysts.

“Umno’s announcement is not surprising as the party has said that it did not plan to partner Bersatu in GE15 despite joining the Perikatan Nasional government,” said Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

And going by Bersatu’s nonchalant response after its meeting on Thursday, Awang Azman believes the party will continue to “force” Umno back to the PN fold before calling for elections.

“The only thing Bersatu and PAS are worried about is Umno trying to force elections this year. More so, when Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan said the party plans to contest in as many as 96 out of the 165 seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

“But I believe Bersatu will try to ensure Umno backs down and cooperate with PN in GE15,” said the political science lecturer.

Awang Azman was commenting on Bersatu’s decision to strengthen the PN parties – PAS, STAR, SAPP and Gerakan – after Umno officially rejected cooperation with Bersatu in the next elections.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Bersatu is playing it safe as it still wants to bring Umno back into the fold.

“Bersatu’s decision on Thursday is not firm (on the break-up) as Umno’s decision has huge implications for PN.”

Hisommudin said Umno’s decision to end cooperation in GE15 but remain in government may also make the party look indecisive.

“This strange decision will render Barisan Nasional’s participation in the PN government meaningless.

“Worse, it could empower the pro-Bersatu factions to start a movement to topple Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi,” said the pollster.

Zahid must notify Bersatu about the impending break-up as there is pressure from the grassroots, said Hisommudin.

“There has been a lot of pressure from the Umno grassroots after the disaster in the Sabah elections.

“So, while Umno initially planned to let the general assembly decide on the issue, multiple pressure points from both Umno and Bersatu meetings forced Zahid to speak up sooner rather than later.”

PAS could ditch Bersatu

PAS may be backing Bersatu to stop Umno’s dominance for now but the party could strike a deal with it later, said Dr Wong Chin Huat.

“PAS will choose neutrality in exchange for Umno’s support or neutral constituencies.” said the political scientist.

And if this were to happen, Bersatu will be crushed, said Wong.

“Any Umno-PAS deal coupled with a partial Umno-Pakatan Harapan arrangement will see Umno annihilating Bersatu.

“(The peninsula’s) 165 seats will be dominated by three groups: Pakatan, Umno and PAS.

“If Pakatan wins the largest share but fewer than 90 seats, then it would most likely be a Pakatan-Umno government with their (Sabah and Sarawak) allies.

“If Umno wins the largest share, then Umno may have the choice of partnering either Pakatan or PAS, also with their respective (Sabah and Sarawak) allies,” he said. – March 8, 2021.