UMNO will benefit from its decision not to cooperate with Bersatu in the next general election as it will no longer need to negotiate over seats to contest in, said analysts.

Universiti Malaya analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi said this will make the 15th general election an open contest and whoever is stronger will win.

This will benefit Umno as the larger, stronger party, with a better-established grassroots network and machinery. It will also benefit Umno, which won certain seats in 2018 but lost them to Bersatu through defections.

Awang Azman said one example is the Mersing seat in Johor where Abdul Latiff Ahmad is the MP. He won on a Barisan Nasional ticket before leaving Umno to join Bersatu.

“The grassroots in the area are from Umno. If Bersatu was to contest there against other parties without Umno on its side, it might not win.”

If Umno is still cooperating with Perikatan Nasional for GE15, then it needs to share the existing seats with Bersatu, making it difficult for it to dominate even though the party is more influential than Bersatu and PAS in PN, he said.

“We know between Umno, PAS, and Bersatu, which party has more members. Of course, it is Umno. Bersatu will not be able to win in a state with many Umno members, for example in Malacca or Penang.”

Umno also knows it cannot accept any negotiation on seats with the aim of providing both it and Bersatu equal opportunities, because it will then be unable to exert control.

“Let’s say there is a 50-50 distribution of seats (between Umno and Bersatu), Umno will not be able to dominate. Even before contesting, it knows it will lose,” said Awang Azman.

Therefore, he said, Umno needs to make a decision now for the sake of its long-term survival and end the current political uncertainty about its direction.

“Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi certainly does not want to be the president who caused Umno to lose their seats to Bersatu.”

After GE15, the party can then return to the negotiating table with the seats it wins to form a new government coalition.

“Once they have won, they will think of a new alliance.”

Umno confirmed that it will no longer cooperate with Bersatu in GE15 but will remain in the PN government for now.

The decision was made at an Umno meeting on February 19 and Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin who is also Bersatu president, has been told.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) political analyst Mazlan Ali said Umno leaders still think they are the only party that can represent the Malays.

“They feel no one can stop them from contesting at least 100 seats in the Malay areas and winning about 82 seats,” said Mazlan.

There are 222 parliamentary seats.

Muhyiddin’s do-nothing strategy

Even though it lost federal power in GE14, Umno remains the party with the highest number of seats in PN.

Umno’s decision has also complicated things for PAS, its partner in their Muafakat Nasional pact, said Mazlan.

“Umno will now no longer negotiate over seats with Bersatu. When that happens, there will be some confusion between Umno and PAS, especially in Kelantan, which is central to PAS.”

Mazlan said Umno is aware of the fact that its actions will result in a three-cornered contest but it is confident based on the results of recent by-elections.

“Malay support for Umno in the Slim by-election showed that Umno has recovered.

“That is why it is confident that it can contest three-cornered fights.”

Mazlan said Umno will stay in the PN government until the general election is called, not just for stability, but to pressure Muhyiddin to dissolve Parliament as soon as possible.

He, however, doubts that Muhyiddin will respond to such calls. The government insists that Parliament will not convene during the current state of emergency, contrary to the Agong’s decree that it can.

“I expect Muhyiddin to remain calm. He doesn’t lash out. His government is safe until August due to the emergency.

“The longer PN stays in government, the stronger it can get, while there is a chance Umno can grow weaker.

“Umno will continue to push Bersatu for a general election to be held immediately, but the longer this government stays in place, the weaker Umno becomes and the stronger PN gets,” Mazlan said.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Umno’s decision to sever ties with PN come GE15, but continue to stay in the government until then, shows it lacked dignity.

“They severed ties with the government party but want to be in the government. It raises big questions to the integrity and dignity of Umno,” he said.

“These three parties survive only to come to power but there is no understanding to govern in harmony. This causes distrust on the part of outsiders.”

Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah shares the same view when he issued his recent statement urging the party to withdraw immediately from the PN government to protect its dignity. – March 6, 2021.