IN a week’s time, the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government will mark its first year in power, but on the political front, it does not seem to have much cause to celebrate.

Twelve months on, the state of politics in Malaysia appears even less stable than it was under Pakatan Harapan (PH), which is deeply ironic, as political instability was one of the key factors cited for the Sheraton Move in the first place.

Attempt after attempt has been made by various parties to claim the prime ministership from under Muhyiddin Yassin, only to be rebuffed, by a combination of tactical political manoeuvres, last-second political deals and compromise, or sheer timing of extenuating events.

The Covid-19 pandemic provided some political cover for the government too, as it did three things – it quickly rallied the civil service behind the government, prevented the opposition from conducting an open counter-offensive, but most importantly, bought a lot of public goodwill.

A year on, however, most of that goodwill has sapped away – with inconsistent SOP implementations, lack of financial aid, conflicting instructions and a prolonged lockdown, technically one never lifted since March 18, 2020.

We are also in a technical state of emergency till August, prohibiting all political activity. That has done little to curb politicking, everywhere except in Parliament. Even if it did, all it serves is to prolong the state of political uncertainty, buying the country and parties some respite, but leaving pertinent questions unanswered.

What alliances or pacts will we see, and what would their shared ideology be?

These are questions many are asking but no one dares answer, for fear of upsetting the status quo, with plenty at stake. PN risks its federal government, control over agencies and GLCs, most of whose appointments were carefully balanced to maintain interests of multiple parties. The pact itself is just a year old, but within it lies Muafakat, a BN-UMNO-PAS’ pact that forms a huge bulk of members and party machinery.

UMNO and PAS have their own respective issues. UMNO is split in three, at least with political direction. One part of the party believes the party should go at it alone, holding onto its past glory as juggernaut and undisputed leader of BN and by far, the most powerful party in the country. The other believes in Malay unity ideals and that Muafakat is the way to go. Both these schools of thought do not appreciate Bersatu’s role, perceived as unfairly powerful. The third group believes the future lies with Bersatu, and that UMNO’s glory days died with the collapse of the larger BN.

Similarly, within PAS, while most of the members agree on the Muafakat pact, some find PN less easy to explain to their flock, as after a year, PAS has little to show in terms of deliverables – the promise to bring Adib’s “killer” to justice, to table RUU 355, to fight for hudud.

They were not even able to ban alcohol, or even tighten its sales restrictions, or even curtail gambling hours.

For PH, it risks its state governments and their agencies, and the strong core pact of PKR-DAP-former PAS, that have lasted over a decade. The problem here is simpler, merely a question of who is the boss.

Opting for Dr Mahathir Mohamad brings in a few MPs from Pejuang and the potential for Bornean MPs who might be less comfortable with Anwar Ibrahim helming it, while Anwar offers relative youth and freshness. A third option of Mohd Shafie Apdal died down after the loss of Sabah to PN.

Both pacts should make their decisions soon, with the election looming.

PH needs to formalise its pact and select its champion, while PN needs to decide once and for all if it intends to move into the election as a pact, or as individual parties.

Declaring these upfront won’t destabilise a government, rather it would provide clarity.

We have precedents for this scenario too – in 2016, PAS pulled out of Pakatan Rakyat, but continued to govern Selangor with DAP and PKR. They also declared they would contest against PH in the next general elections. The state administration remained largely intact and cordial for two more years before election was called.

There can also be scenarios of main alliances teaming with smaller fringe parties, as was the case with BN, or more recently, PH.

Either way, the impasse needs to be ended, and alliances, temporal or more permanent, need to be clarified, or the political crisis will drag on, just like the MCO. – February 24, 2021.

* Emmanuel Joseph firmly believes that Klang is the best place on Earth, and that motivated people can do far more good than any leader with motive.

* Emmanuel Joseph firmly believes that Klang is the best place on Earth, and that motivated people can do far more good than any leader with motive.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.