GERAKAN will unlikely make a huge impact at the next general election as it still needs to do more to draw support, said analysts.

Commenting on the former Barisan Nasional (BN) party teaming up with Perikatan Nasional (PN), analysts said if Gerakan is to be a player in the Malaysian political scene, the party would have to make changes and rebrand itself.

If anything, Gerakan joining PN only shows the ruling coalition is not Malay-Muslim centric and had space for a multiracial party, they said.

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said looking at the current political scenario, the party might get fewer seats as opposed to what it got in the 14th general election.

“Gerakan has to be realistic if they want to contest the seats they got in GE14, as there will be changes in seat negotiations with PN.

“They only got the seats (in GE14) because of cooperation with BN,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin last Thursday said Gerakan has been accepted into the PN coalition as one of the new coalition’s component parties.

On Friday, Gerakan president Dominic Lau pledged support to PN and said the party will ensure the pact’s victory in the next general election.  

He said they are ready to collaborate with all parties to ensure the coalition’s (Bersatu, PAS, Star and Sabah Progressive Party) victory in GE15.

In GE14, Gerakan performed badly, losing all 11 parliamentary and 31 state seats it contested.

Awang Azman said Gerakan has to change its stance as its candidates will most likely face those from DAP and PKR.  

“They (opposition) have raised relevant issues to the public and have suitable candidates. Unlike the vibrant opposition front, Gerakan looks like an outdated party.”

Based on current sentiments, it would be difficult for Gerakan to attract votes because it is going up against an opposition that is on the uptick, he said.

However, Gerakan joining PN is a plus point for the new coalition in its branding – showing it is multiracial.

“So, this is a slight advantage to PN.”

Gerakan no heavyweight

Political scientist and social activist Chandra Muzaffar said Gerakan is not a big party so they will not be demanding many seats.

He said the party is not going to be a major factor in seat allocations after losing in the last elections.

“If they were to demand seats it would be limited to the party’s performance (in certain areas). Likewise, with MCA and MIC.

“So, I don’t think they will be able to demand seats, as in the last general election they were unable to champion the cause of non-Malays.”

He, however, said given what had happened to the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government, non-Malays will be thinking again about supporting the opposition as voters will be more wary.

Chandra said in terms of the larger political landscape, Gerakan joining PN is a positive move.  

“This potentially makes PN more of a multi-ethnic coalition. It gives PN a sort of balance, which is important.”

On their chances for GE15, he said it will be hard to predict as the dynamics will not be the same as in GE14.

“Some individuals who were prominent in GE14 won’t be now. The issues this time around are different.

“In GE14 there was 1MDB and the goods and services tax. This time it is all about tackling the Covid-19 pandemic.”

PH made history when they won GE14. However, the coalition only ruled for 22 months before falling to PN.

He added that the public now would be more influenced by the economic downturn and people losing jobs.  

“There is also the new dynamics that 18-year-olds can vote in the next general election.”

Too early to predict seats

International Islamic University Malaysia lecturer Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said it is too early to predict when it comes to seat negotiations.

“PN seems to be a pro-Malay coalition. With Bersatu and PAS at the helm, and without a strong non-Malay partner in the coalition, Gerakan may not have a strong bargaining power.

“The party joining PN may strengthen it a bit electorally but it remains to be seen by how much.”

As for the last general election, he said Gerakan’s losses were partly because it was in BN.

“But, then again, Gerakan also did not have much to offer and its direct competitor was DAP, who was stronger then.

“However, GE15 will be a totally different ball game, where DAP’s electoral strength is also suspect.”

Tunku Mohar said Gerakan will be helpful in getting the non-Malay votes for PN, but they are not a strictly “Chinese” or “Indian” party, and may not get a lot of the non-Malay votes.

“As a general rule, voters in mixed seats normally vote for DAP or PKR more than any other party.

“However, if it is in a mostly Chinese-majority seat, Gerakan may have a chance, provided it has an influential candidate.” – February 15, 2021.