THERE is a maxim in Malaysian politics: no matter how the country changes, Umno will always reign and rule.

It appeared the 14th general election might have finally broken that maxim, but Umno has swiftly transformed from the party of government to an effective opposition in the 22 months of Pakatan Harapan (PH) rule.

This was wholly evident when the anti-ICERD rally was held in late 2018 that was partly orchestrated by Umno and PAS to gauge its grassroot support for the burgeoning political alliance.

The rally and the subsequent by-election victories by Umno – with PAS’s explicit cooperation – cemented the political alliance and gave birth to Muafakat Nasional (MN), which served as the biggest threat to PH rule.

While the “Sheraton Move” was a political crisis mostly of PH’s making, being battered by the race and religion issued by MN did not help, either.

The opposition at the time painted the PH government as a government led by DAP and therefore, threatened Malay rights.

Finally, the exodus of Bersatu and Azmin’s gang of 10 gave MN the opportunity to govern and Umno joined the government under the pretext of ensuring Malay parties would be united. It was wishful thinking of Umno, i.e., things would return to when it then dominated the BN coalition.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Anwar Ibrahim and Muhyiddin Yassin were the only three names that were mooted when MPs sought audience with the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong and Umno knew the path to power was only possible by supporting one of them.

For Umno and MN as a whole, Bersatu’s Muhyiddin was seen as the only acceptable choice out of the three, given Mahathir’s bitterness with Umno’s top echelons and Anwar’s association with the DAP. Thus, Bersatu’s Muhyiddin was chosen as the ninth prime minister with the blessing of Umno.

Fast forward to 2021, all is indeed not well between Umno and Bersatu, with both parties seen to be at loggerheads constantly. And the conflict arises because the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government is propped up by two parties that could realistically lay claim to the premiership – a political muddle that mirrors PH’s Anwar-Mahathir conflict no less.

Umno has at first exploited Anwar’s desperation to give itself an advantage over Muhyiddin, but largely to no avail.

The fall of Perak’s Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu, who is also Bersatu’s deputy president, is a humiliation to Bersatu, and yet any potential fallout at the federal level were quickly contained when Umno, PAS and Bersatu immediately closed ranks.

Muhyiddin’s supply bill was also passed with the collective support of Umno, despite Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah’s solitary abstention.

It was outside of the political institutions where Umno continues to criticise the government and threatens to pull back its support.

There were the various Umno’s supreme council meetings, which were often hyped as Umno finally leaving this current government for good – but always ended up being a damp squib.

While the latest supreme council meetings this week made clear the relationship with Bersatu would immediately cease upon the next general election, Umno’s support for the Muhyiddin’s government still stands despite Umno’s grassroot making clear of their intentions.

Some might argue that Muhyiddin’s hand continues to be weakened the longer he remains as PM, but the same could be said of Umno too.

To date, it is only Umno that continues to argue and splitter over its role in the current government and call for a swift election as opposed to “weak and feeble” Muhyiddin and Bersatu. This is because, deep down, Umno is also aware that it is equally disadvantaged the longer Muhyiddin remains as PM.

Umno’s main rift with the government is that the executive positions it was granted were disproportionate given that it is the biggest party in terms of parliamentary numbers.

Most of the important offices of this nation belongs to Bersatu, with the sole exception of the Defence Ministry.

The fact that Muhyiddin would rather have an unelected bureaucrat to helm the Finance Ministry than anyone from Umno has certainly bruised its warlords’ egos. And It is as what Najib has recently complained, Umno was given no say on economic affairs but will be equally blamed for any economic failings committed by this government.

Beyond the corridors of powers, Umno is also facing the existential threat of being gobbled up by Bersatu. UMNO’s accusation of Bersatu actively recruiting its members is not wide off the mark given that both of them are ideologically similar, while seeking the same constituents.

Moreover, Bersatu has the federal resources it could tap in to do the party’s bidding. Umno, which has been surviving on patronage politics during its reign, knows too well how disastrous this could be for its survival.

Umno’s constant call for an election looks to be a forlorn effort, too, as only the PM holds the prerogative of calling one. Muhyiddin is also aware that the conditions of stabilizing Covid-19 must first be fulfilled before dissolving the parliament, but Malaysia is far from achieving that currently.

What’s more, the Anwar threat that Umno has previously used against Muhyiddin also has lost its effectiveness given that Muhyiddin looks to be unperturbed by Anwar’s empty threat.

With the prospect of Anwar becoming PM almost nil and Umno having no say over the general election, Umno could only continue to stay in the government while remaining to bicker among themselves, which would inadvertently split the party even further.

The quick return of power was certainly not foreseen by Umno when Mahathir first resigned and it would much prefer a general election to ameliorate the fallout from the 2020 political crisis.

Nevertheless, Umno’s desire for a general election should not be construed as some democratic idealism, but rather the polls, at that time, were generally in favour of them.

Even until now, its sole aim for a general election is to break the political impasse, but only if it promises benefits. Yet, the Merdeka Centre findings have revealed that most Malays wanted Umno to stick with PN – which means working with Bersatu – and a repeat of 2018 might ensue if Umno chooses to contest against PN in the coming general election.

This means that Umno could prevent PH from ruling by continuing to play second fiddle and cooperate with Muhyiddin’s Bersatu, but Umno might risk being further marginalized by the latter.

Yet, if Umno and Bersatu split, there is a chance that the PH would return to power because of the split of Malay votes and Umno would be held responsible for that.

Furthermore, the idea of a general election right now might not appear more appealing as compared to the situation in 2020, given that their once trusted ally PAS has been swayed by Bersatu.

Umno is currently in a quagmire, but this is the path it has chosen since it decided to collude with Bersatu and it is now living with the consequences of that choice. – January 10, 2020.

* Kenneth Cheng has always been interested in the interplay between human rights and government but more importantly he is a father of two cats, Tangyuan and Toufu. When he is not attending to his feline matters, he is most likely reading books about politics and human rights or playing video games. He is a firm believer in the dictum “power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will”.