THE Umno and PAS partnership in Muafakat Nasional is on the verge of collapse, just a year after the country’s two largest Muslim-Malay parties inked a unity agreement, said analysts.

The two political forces are finding it hard to find common ground after PAS joined the Perikatan Nasional government led by Bersatu, they said.

The Islamist party’s entry to the ruling coalition, where it has the status of a founding member, has boosted its ties with Bersatu, with which Umno is also allied but far less happily.

Umno is opting out of PN, choosing to remain instead in Barisan Nasional, where it is the alpha member.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Dr Mazlan Ali said MN is breaking down because Umno refuses to admit Bersatu into the pact while PAS insists it would not leave out Bersatu.

“PAS and Umno cannot find agreement. Umno does not want Bersatu to join MN, Umno also does not want to join PN,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Mazlan pointed to recent events in Perak where Umno and PAS found themselves working at cross-purposes over the ousting of menteri besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu.

“Umno made the unexpected move of toppling the Bersatu menteri besar and PAS reacted strongly with the declaration that it would not take part on the new state government. That meant that PAS did not approve of Umno’s actions.”

As a consequence of the rift, Umno Perak did not appoint a religious exco from PAS as is customary, said Mazlan.

Umno sidelined

Mazlan said Umno is finding itself increasingly sidelined as PAS grows closer to Bersatu.

That Umno is unhappy was clear when the party’s youth leader Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said seat negotiations would no longer take place between Umno and PAS but between Barisan Nasional and PN.

“This shows that Umno is disappointed in PAS, that it resents PAS’ close relationship with Bersatu.

“As PAS becomes a valued component of PN, Umno wishes to show that it recognises the official alliance, hence its decision to stop talking directly with PAS through MN but through BN and PN.

“It is too early to say if MN will sink but it is fractured. Because now PAS sees Bersatu as a strategic partner,” said Mazlan.

MN was formed in September last year. PN was established in March after the opposition successfully wrested power from Pakatan Harapan, primarily through Bersatu’s defection to link up with Umno and PAS.

PAS and Bersatu subsequently decided to make the pact official and registered PN in early August.

Rudderless and irrelevant

Ilham Centre researcher Hisommudin Bakar said MN lacks purpose and direction.

“It is just a matter of time before MN breaks up. Its first anniversary has passed by just like that. It appears to me that the alliance has been left hanging,” he said.

How the partnership would pan out depends entirely on whether PAS succeeds in mediating between Umno and Bersatu, he said.

“PAS considers itself to be the middleman in the relationship between Bersatu and Umno,” said Hisommudin.

Three-cornered fights in the elections would be the consequence of PAS’ failure to reconcile the two parties, he said.

“PAS has made it clear (to Umno) that if you want to negotiate, you need to get Bersatu in. It looks like it is forcing Umno to get Bersatu involved if Umno wishes to have a discussion with PAS.”

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said MN became irrelevant the day PAS joined PN.

PAS recognises the importance and power of Bersatu, which holds the highest position in the country and has the power to determine its political survival, he said.

Waiting for dissolution

Awang Azman said it’s clear Umno is conflicted over its relationship with PAS and the role of MN.

But Umno would act decisively when Parliament is dissolved for elections, he said.

“Umno does not dare to act more aggressively now because it is afraid it will not be able to respond firmly (to provocation).

“But when Parliament is dissolved, only then will Umno respond… it is inevitable that there will be three-cornered contests.” – December 29, 2020.