PAKATAN Harapan chairman Anwar Ibrahim claims Muhyiddin Yassin’s government has fallen yet he refuses to say who and how many support his bid to be prime minister. 

As speculation grows over where the opposition leader’s support lies, Umno has added to the intrigue with the announcement that it is reviewing its support for Muhyiddin and wishes to set new terms for its participation in the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government. 

Umno’s Muafakat Nasional partner, PAS, meanwhile, wants all parties in the government to back Muhyiddin. So does Umno’s Annuar Musa, who is Barisan Nasional secretary-general and Federal Territories minister.

In Sabah and Sarawak, Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Warisan have kept to their traditional role of kingmaker, watching the drama unfold more or less quietly from the sidelines.

Which party will prove loyal to the prime minister and who is likely to sell him out? And why?

The Malaysian Insight offers a look into the various parties in the power struggle and the motivations for them to swing one way or the other.

Bersatu

Muhyiddin and his party, Bersatu, struck gold in February with the “Sheraton move” to oust PH. Party members now occupy the choicest political positions controlling the country’s money and economy, as well as its education and security sectors, all thanks to the power grab.

Any change in the political landscape could send newcomers, such as Edmund Santhara Kumar, Rina Harun and Ali Biju into political oblivion.

It’s hard to see many Bersatu candidates winning against Umno and PAS in the Malay-majority seats, or even against PKR and DAP in the mixed constituencies, in the next elections. 

PAS

Before February, PAS’ sources of wealth were confined to logging in Kelantan and waiting for oil royalties from Terengganu’s oil fields.

But the far-right party was thrust into Putrajaya because Muhyiddin needed 18 more MPs to make up his 113 to become the eighth prime minister.

And while they have been rewarded handsomely in the form of GLC positions, cabinet posts and even an appointed seat in the Sabah assembly where they did not contest in, most PAS ministers have done little other than to gain notoriety. 

The most prominent of these is Plantation and Commodities Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali, who went to Turkey with his family in July during the movement restrictions against Covid-19 but did not undergo any quarantine after his return.

Although he has been fined RM1,000 and the police are investigating his actions, don’t hold your breath waiting for him to be charged in court.

All this plus the posts, perks and Vellfires are PAS’ reward for backing Muhyiddin. They love it so much that they were willing to throw Umno under the bus and join Muhyiddin’s new coalition, PN, despite the MN charter with Umno.

Umno ministers, deputies

Prior to the current political crisis, there was already talk that Umno was split between those who supported Muhyiddin because of the appointments he dished out, and those who felt Umno was conceding too much to Bersatu.

The test now is what will they do if Umno carries through its plan to break ties with PN and Muhyiddin. Will they follow their president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi? Or will they do a Mohamed Azmin Ali and quit their party to go where the money is?

Umno faithful

Up till the Sabah elections last month, Umno members were content to bide their time and wait for GE15 to get back the prime minister’s post and regain their former dominance in government.

But due to Muhyiddin’s attempt to take over Sabah – through former chief minister Musa Aman’s move to get 32 assemblymen over to his side – elections were held after the governor agreed to dissolve the legislative assembly. That’s when Bersatu showed its greed.

Though the much smaller party and despite not having contested in Sabah in 2018, seat negotiations for the recent state polls saw Umno giving up their best seats to Bersatu, while a verbal war broke out in the media between the two parties over the candidate for chief minister.

“Planned” multi-cornered fights in the Sabah polls also pitted Umno against PN-linked candidates even as Muhyiddin proclaimed Umno/BN and Bersatu/PN were one under the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah banner.

As a result, Umno lost eight more seats to PN. The subsequent concession of the Sabah CM post to Bersatu was particularly galling to the party members. 

In anticipation of more of the same shoddy treatment on the peninsula by its partner, Umno may feel it has no choice but to fight back now before it is too late.

Pakatan Harapan

Muhyiddin, with Dr Mahathir Mohamad and the rest of Bersatu, fought with other PH parties in 2018 against Umno and BN.

PH has little love for Muhyiddin, whose betrayal of the pact by engineering the infamous dinner at Sheraton Hotel in February led to the fall of the government that held power for just 22 months.

Dr Mahathir and Anwar

Because of this betrayal, Dr Mahathir will not support Muhyiddin’s government, a fact he has repeated many times since February. 

Muhyiddin, Bersatu’s president, also sacked Dr Mahathir, his son Mukhriz and several other leaders from the party both had founded in 2016. 

As for Anwar, the perpetual prime minister hopeful has no reason to support his usurper who had dashed his expectations of becoming the eighth prime minister. – October 16, 2020.