THE Umno political bureau’s decisions last night to review support for the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government and formalise the party’s political alliance with PAS were not unexpected.

What was unexpected was that the decisions were made within hours of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s audience with the Agong to present proof that the PKR president had the majority support to be prime minister.

That proof has yet to be verified as the king has not met any other political party leader except for veteran Umno leader Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah who is on record telling his party to quit the PN government led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin.

His reasons for Umno to leave the alliance might be dissimilar to the party political bureau’s but the effect is the same: it will lead to the collapse of the Muhyiddin administration and possibly, a snap election.

The reasons for Umno’s disenchantment with PN is very much in the public domain despite the party having nine ministers, seven deputy ministers and a number of agency chairmanships in its hold.

They range from giving way to leaders from Muhyiddin’s Bersatu party in Perak and Sabah to lead the respective state governments to the ongoing prosecutions of Umno leaders such as disgraced former prime minister Najib Razak and party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

The only one who has been left off the hook is former Sabah chief minister Musa Aman, who had 46 corruption and money laundering charges against him dropped last June. Musa went on to engineer a political coup in Sabah that ended in state elections that gave Bersatu the chief minister’s post and PAS its first foothold in the Borneo state.

The events surrounding the Sabah elections last month have been mired in controversy with accusations of sabotage that led to Umno losing a chance to head the state government.

That has also strengthened the belief among almost all levels of Umno rank and file that Bersatu, comprising mainly ex-Umno members, has not been a reliable political ally and is just riding on the Umno political machinery.

In effect, Umno has come to the conclusion that it is not beneficial for it to further support Bersatu or the PN government – unless new terms are set and put in writing.

After all, their support in February was contingent on a few conditions which they believe have not been fulfilled as yet. In other words, supporting PM Muhyiddin has not paid off for Umno nearly nine months down the line.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad alluded to this recently, saying Anwar too would be subject to such terms should the Port Dickson MP become prime minister with Umno support, like Muhyiddin did in February.

Umno’s decision to formalise Muafakat Nasional with PAS is also notice to the Islamist party ahead of a possible snap election if the government collapses. PAS has been getting closer to Bersatu under the PN framework but Umno believes it is the stronger ally in their traditional rural political fortresses.

Those permutations are still not clear but what is clear is Umno has decided to put its foot down and act as the big brother of Malay politics. Political support is contingent on its terms and it will go to the politician who can fulfil it.

Right now, Istana Negara might be off-limits to all, especially politicians called in for an audience with the king, but what is certain is that Muhyiddin has been put on notice.

Umno’s decision to tell the world it is thinking of withdrawing support from Muhyiddin is a death knell for the sitting PM. It could also happen for Anwar in the future but that future is not set in stone. – October 14, 2020.

* Jahabar Sadiq runs The Malaysian Insight.