MUHYIDDIN Yassin could not have ignored the shocking claim by Anwar Ibrahim on Wednesday while giving his live telecast on the RM10 billion Kita Prihatin package.

“What is needed is a stable government that is supported by all of you as it is crucial to ensure more initiatives to restore the economy can be carried out by the government.

“I appeal to all of you to reject the actions of a small group of politicians who are intentionally trying to disrupt our political stability and economic recovery plan,” the prime minister said as he wrapped up his speech about 3pm.

Anwar, the opposition leader, has just claimed that the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government had fallen and that he had a solid majority to change the government.

That same night in Luyang, Kota Kinabalu, the 73-year-old Muhyiddin continued campaigning for PN component SAPP, stoically asserting that he is still the prime minister.

Real troubles in Sabah

Anwar aside, Muhyiddin’s troubles stem from whether PN’s biggest partner, Barisan Nasional, truly supports him.

Although his other allies – PAS and GPS – have said they remain behind him despite Anwar’s claims, Muhyiddin knows that trouble is at the door as Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi stopped short of explicitly backing the prime minister.

Instead, Zahid said that BN MPs are free to choose who they want to support as prime minister, in a thinly veiled approval for MPs to support Anwar.

This is crucial as Muhyiddin’s PN government comprises only 113 MPs, and a quick change of heart by just two MPs would cause his government to fall.

This is in contrast to what occurred on February 29, when Zahid, representing all of BN’s 42 MPs, had told the king they backed the Bersatu president for prime minister.

Zahid’s departure, however, is not surprising as while Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) – on paper – is a single coalition made up of PN (Bersatu, PAS, Star and SAPP), BN (Umno, MCA, MIC and PBRS) and PBS, each party has run separate campaigns in the Sabah elections, unlike Warisan Plus.

Furthermore, GRS parties are set to clash with each other in 17 seats in Sabah.

On the ground, Muhyiddin has steered clear of the BN areas, keeping his appearances to PN or PBS seats. Even the “Abah for Sabah” posters, used extensively by PN, are confined to non-BN areas.

Warisan Plus’ “sailboat” logo, on the other hand, can be found all across Sabah, even in seats PKR is contesting, despite using its own “eye” logo.

This may not come as a shock, as even when Muhyiddin announced the GRS pact on September 12, he did so alone, without the other parties. Similarly, when he announced GRS’ “Aku janji” manifesto for the Sabah elections, Zahid was conspicuously missing.

The only BN leaders present were BN secretary-general Annuar Musa and Sabah Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin.

PN even had to move and rename its final party presidents’ ceramah on Thursday night from Sutera Harbour to a village in Putatan because Zahid and PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang failed to show in Sabah.

Incidentally, GRS has not resolved its Sabah chief minister issue either, as PN wants Bersatu Sabah chief Hajiji Noor while BN wants Bung Moktar for the role.

To make matters worse, Bung Moktar had, in a campaign speech last week, told the BN machinery that Bersatu will not win anything in Sabah.

“Bersatu think they are strong and wanted more seats than Umno. This is what it has done.

“I don’t know if Bersatu is strong in your areas but you know that Bersatu has no strength or machinery. It is only attempting suicide.

“Maybe time will determine whether it can survive in Sabah or not. But as your chief, I want to say that Bersatu will not win anything in Sabah,” the Kinabatangan MP had said.

Make or break for Muhyiddin

Winning Sabah may not add much value to Putrajaya, but the results of the state elections today will determine the landscape of Malaysia, said Universiti Malaysia Terengganu’s Mohd Yusri Ibrahim.

“This is a political war that Muhyiddin cannot afford to lose,” he said.

The Sabah election, said Yusri, is Muhyiddin and his administration’s first referendum after the Bersatu chief’s role in causing the fall of the PH government.

“Muhyiddin must win this to legitimise his leadership and allow him to continue to lead the country under PN. This win will also give him confidence to call for a fresh general election,” said the Ilham Centre research director.

Yusri, along with the Ilham Centre team, have been traversing Sabah for two weeks conducting interviews with focus groups.

A defeat here, Yusri said, could spell disaster for Muhyiddin, who is hoping to be renominated for the prime minister post in the 15th general election.

“Losing in Sabah will put PN and Muhyiddin’s ability to lead the country under scrutiny again. As it is, Umno also wants BN to take back the prime minister’s seat,” said the political science lecturer.

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said that although Sabah is just a small piece in PN’s jigsaw puzzle, it is an important piece.

“If it loses Sabah to Warisan Plus, Bersatu itself will lose a lot of bargaining power against Umno. Zahid and BN will blame Bersatu for the defeat as they have taken many Umno seats.

“Worse yet, BN will call for fresh elections if Gabungan loses here.”

Bersatu is contesting 19 seats, of which six are former Umno seats after defections, while Umno is contesting 31.

Back in Luyang on Wednesday night, though tired from the long day, Muhyiddin put up a brave front as he faced a full house of Chinese voters.

“I don’t want to talk about my government coming in the front door or the back door.

“What matters is I am a prime minister from the royal palace’s door,” he said.

He said that any challenge to his position must be based on the federal constitution.

“But I stand here and I am still your prime minister.”

While Warisan’s campaign revolves around telling Sabahans not to let the peninsula determine their future, perhaps this time, it is Sabahans who will decide Peninsular Malaysia and Muhyiddin’s destiny. – September 26, 2020.