BARISAN Nasional’s landslide win in the Slim by-election last weekend will cement Umno’s claim as the dominant party among Malay voters and weaken the position of Bersatu, its partner in the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, said analysts.

The victory will mean that Umno now gets to call the shots when deciding how to divide seats between itself and Bersatu, a party with a similar ideology that also contests in Malay areas, they said.

It also means that Umno will now demand that future cooperation in elections be done through the Muafakat Nasional (MN) and BN platforms, which it dominates, instead of PN, which is driven by Prime Minister and Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin.

This is since campaigning during the Slim by-election was carried out mostly through the MN and BN political pacts, where Umno is the lead party in each.

In contrast, Bersatu is actively pushing to use the new PN coalition, which was formally registered recently but the launch of which has been postponed due to a breakdown in talks with Sabah parties.

MN was formed in September 2019 by Umno and PAS to create a Muslim nationalist front, then in opposition to Pakatan Harapan.

Bersatu only joined MN last month after it abandoned PH in February to create the PN government.

The victory in Slim is a signal that the cooperation between Umno and PAS through MN is the best platform for them in the next general election, said political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM).

“The victory also signals that Umno will continue to pressure Muhyiddin in seat negotiations for the upcoming Sabah elections,” said Mazlan, adding that it is unlikely Umno will forge closer ties with Bersatu given that both parties faced off against each other in the 14th general election.

Political scientist Dr Azmil Tayeb, a senior lecturer at Universiti Sains Malaysia, said the Slim victory will be used by Umno as evidence that it is the most popular party in Malay-majority constituencies.

“This will limit Bersatu’s chances to contest for those seats. There is no incentive for Umno-BN to give in to Bersatu’s demands during seat negotiations as the record in all the by-elections favours the former,” said Azmil.

“I am confident that Umno members will be angry if Beratu is allowed to contest in Malay-majority areas,” Azmil added.

Pressure for GE15

Umno’s Mohd Zaidi Aziz managed to retain the Slim state seat for the party by 10,945 votes, larger than the 2,183-vote margin that his predecessor, Mohd Khusairi Abdul Talib, garnered at GE14.

Campaigning under the blue BN “dacing” logo, Umno, PAS, MCA and MIC won all Malay-majority polling centres, and those Umno lost in GE14.

The effectiveness of the dacing will further strengthen Umno’s demand that it be used in the next general election, as opposed to whatever new symbol PN unveils, said pollster Assoc Prof Dr Yusri Ibrahim of the Ilham Centre.

The BN victories in Slim and the previous six by-elections show the voters’ continued acceptance of BN, and the cooperation between Umno and PAS through MN, said Yusri.

“Umno will continue to insist on using the BN logo, as opposed to Bersatu, which wants to use the PN logo,” said Yusri, Ilham Centre’s senior fellow.

The huge turnout in support for BN could motivate Umno to further pressure Muhyiddin to dissolve Parliament and call for an early 15th general election, said Mazlan.

“They feel that this is the time for (Umno) to come back to power and retake the prime minister’s post.

“However, Muhyiddin’s decision to extend the recovery movement-control order (RMCO) to December 31 will cripple the plan to hold an early election.”

From Slim to Sabah

Although GE15 could still be several months away, the more immediate impact that Slim will have is in the ongoing talks between Sabah Umno and Bersatu over contesting 73 seats.

Like its counterparts in the Peninsula, Sabah Umno sees Bersatu as the usurper of its long dominance in the northern Borneo states.

Since 1995, Sabah Umno has been the dominant party in Sabah BN, even after the coalition was booted out of power by Warisan and its allies.

Sabah Bersatu was formed by nine Umno assemblymen last year, who abandoned their old party while it was in opposition.

Umno will use its Slim victory to demand the lion’s share of seats in Sabah, said Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“But Sabah is different from Slim in terms of sentiment and landscape. Even though Umno is a big party, it still needs to work with local political parties to win.”

Political economist Dr Firdausi Suffian said the Sabah landscape has many local parties, such as PBS, STAR and PBRS, which can affect the vote.

Also, the continued rivalry between Umno and Bersatu means that there could be two coalitions – the Umno-led Sabah BN and PPB-driven PN – fighting over the same seats, said Firdausi.

“Bersatu wants to contest in the same seats they won as Umno candidates in GE14, but now Umno wants these seats back,” said the senior lecturer of Unversiti Teknologi Mara Sabah (UiTM Sabah).

“Candidates who switched parties may not get the people’s support but there are a few who have strong grassroots support.

“Although Muhyiddin has launched the PN logo, Bersatu is still in its maiden contest in Sabah.”

The most important factor in determining victory in Sabah will be in how Bersatu and Umno reach an agreement on seats and candidates, Firdausi said.

“The Slim by-election victory does not change anything. It is just a morale-booster. It is not a significant factor in Sabah.” – September 2, 2020.