THERE was never any doubt that Barisan Nasional’s Mohd Zaidi Aziz would win the Slim by-election yesterday but the resounding victory, especially in Chinese and Indian polling stations, is a boost to the coalition’s confidence ahead of the Sabah state election and impending 15th general election, say analysts. 

“More than just winning Slim, they will be pleased to have won polling stations they had previously lost to Pakatan Harapan in GE14,” said Ilham Centre research director Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim. 

“The victory will give BN confidence to face GE15, which is expected to be held soon,” the Universiti Malaysia Terengganu lecturer told The Malaysian Insight.

According to preliminary data provided by Ilham, BN managed to regain predominantly Indian and Chinese polling stations – Ladang Sungkai, Pekan Lama and Pekan Slim. 

These polling stations had gone to PH in GE14.

On top of that, BN also held on firmly to all the seven Felda settlements after adding the PAS votes to their final tally of 13,060 votes, compared to Pejuang’s 2,115 votes.  

The only consolation for Pejuang, whose candidate contested as an independent, is that it did not lose its deposit after winning 13.7% of the total votes cast (15,451). Another independent candidate, S. Santharasekaran, could only poll 276 votes. 

Ilham’s early analysis also indicates that BN obtained around 91% of Malay votes compared to Pejuang’s 9%. 

The early analysis also showed 68% of the Chinese and 61% of the Indians picked BN.

In GE14, 51% of Malays chose BN while only 18% Chinese and 24% Indians had voted BN.

Ilham will present its full analysis for the by-election at Universiti Malaya on September 4.

The winning Muafakat, Najib formulas

Centre for Governance and Political Studies (Cent-GPS) founder Senator Khairul Azwan Harun said the Muafakat Nasional formula worked very well for BN in Slim.

“Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Pejuang is new and was not expected to make a strong debut. Furthermore, the BN and PAS machinery were working hand-in-hand on the ground, without much participation from Bersatu,” said Khairul. 

Another factor that helped BN, said the political analyst, was former prime minister Najib Razak – one of the most hardworking campaigners for BN. 

“Najib was a crowd puller for BN and his last ceramah on Friday drew thousands,” said Khairul.

The former Umno Youth deputy chief, however, cautioned there is no guarantee of a similar victory in GE15.

“Voters want better policy recommendations and a better economy and more job opportunities. The side that provides better policies will win the day.”

The 15th national polls must be called by the third quarter of 2023, although there is speculation of a snap election before that because of the slim majority Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional government has in Parliament.

Currently PN counts 113 MPs among its ranks in the 222-seat Parliament.

BN, Muafakat or Perikatan?

The resounding win aside, Yusri said PN parties still have a branding issue. 

“BN won big here today using its dacing (scales) logo. But what will they use in GE15, when there is Umno, PAS and Bersatu?” said the pollster.

“Umno will want to keep their dacing based on their success, starting from the Cameron Highlands by-election. But with Bersatu and Muhyiddin leading the government now, they will want to use a new logo,” said Yusri.

PH, meanwhile, should heed the message Slim voters have sent to them, Yusri added.

“Without strong cooperation and understanding at the highest level, PH parties can be easily defeated as shown in the by-election yesterday.

“PH and other opposition parties need to get to the negotiation table to reach a consensus on policies, logos and strategies if it wants to give PN a fight in Sabah or GE15.” – August 30, 2020.