Dr Mahathir for PM part of strategy to win rural Malay votes, analysts say

Bede Hong Bede Hong Updated 6 years ago · Published on 4 Dec 2017 7:30PM · 13 Comments

Analysts say the appointment of Pakatan chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad as interim prime minister is a valid strategy to penetrate the rural Malays heartland, but may not sit well with youths. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Seth Akmal, December 4, 2017.

NAMING Dr Mahathir Mohamad as interim prime minister is an obvious strategy aimed at benefitting Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) foray into rural Malay constituencies, say analysts.

The former prime minister and PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail were named as interim prime minister and deputy prime minister respectively after a two-day coalition retreat in Putrajaya that ended on Saturday.

“If the pact is solely to penetrate rural Malay votes, it might just work,” said James Chin, executive director of Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania.

“Naming Dr Mahathir is a smart move as they are telling the Umno Malay voters, if you vote PH, you get the original Umno, not Najib’s Umno,” Chin said.

BN has long controlled the Malay-dominated Felda settlements, totalling 54 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia. Dr Mahathir, while he was prime minister for 22 years, was also president of Umno.

PH, led by Bersatu chairman Dr Mahathir, 93, has been attempting to make inroads there by holding ceramah focusing on topics such as corruption and the 1Malaysia Development (1MDB) financial scandal.

Except for PKR, the other PH parties have agreed to the names should the coalition win the general election, which must be held by next August.

But Chin had a caveat when it came to the youth vote.

“The problem is, while Dr Mahathir appeals to Malays over 40, the younger Malays may not buy into him.

“Younger Malays think the most qualified persons in PH are Azmin and Rafizi,” said Chin, referring to Selangor Menteri Besar Mohamed Azmin Ali and Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli, who are PKR deputy president and vice-president, respectively.

“If younger malays were asked on this, I think they will not accept Dr Mahathir and Dr Wan Azizah. They want younger people,” Chin added.

Most opposition voters have already settled on Dr Mahathir as a transition figure, Chin added.

“The expectation is that he will be there until Anwar comes out of prison.”

Dr Mahathir was made PH chairman in July. Anwar, meanwhile, has been serving a five-year prison term since February 2015 for sodomy.

While nominating Dr Mahathir as prime minister may be the obvious strategy to win the Malay vote, PH may still have to put up stronger arguments to convince other supporters that he and Wan Azizan remained the best candidates, said Sivamurugan Pandian, a political analyst from Universiti Sains Malaysia.

“PKR members may still feel hurt because of the 1998 Anwar sacking incident and cannot support this recommendation,” he said, referring to the time when Anwar was deputy prime minister and sacked from government by Dr Mahathir.

The sacking, Anwar’s first sodomy conviction and the ensuing Reformasi movement, may still be fresh in the minds of many PKR members, Sivamurugan added.

“Many of those who support Dr Mahathir now were against him then. They (the leadership) may want to justify and rationalise the decision of naming him as interim PM.

“But more interesting will be: Where will Dr Mahathir contest in order to be eligible as PH’s prime minister candidate?” he added.

The age factor, however, should allay fears by Dr Mahathir’s detractors that the former prime minister will cling to power, said Wong Chin Huat, the Penang Institute political studies programme head.

“He is the least divisive choice for politics within PH. Given Dr Mahathir’s age, his interim nature is beyond question,” said Wong.

Due to his prominence in Malaysian politics, Dr Mahathir may be the only figure to draw in support from hardcore Umno and BN supporters.

“While Dr Mahathir’s candidacy may offend some for his adamant defence of his past rule, he also attracts a significant segment of voters who conventionally support Umno and BN only and would not support opposition unless there is some continuity. Dr Mahathir is the continuity in change which may make regime change easier to accept for Malay nationalists, the deep state and the Palace.”

“Ultimately, as in many party states, it will take someone from Umno to defeat Umno.

“BN’s greatest electoral upsets have always been caused by an opposition led by an ex-Umno supremo. In 1990, it was Tengu Razaleigh Hamzah. In 1999, 2008 and 2013, it was Anwar. This time, it has to be Dr Mahathir,” Wong said.

The Azmin-Mukhriz combo

One analyst who disagreed with PH’s move, was Universiti Malaysia Sarawak associate professor and political analyst Jeniri Amir, who said it would bring about negative repercussions to the opposition pact.

“I don’t think this is the right step by PH. (It will be) negative in terms of how the people as a whole perceive PH.

“Dr Mahathir has been up there for 22 years and now they want to put him back in that position again. His track record is not good in terms of good governance. A lot of scandals happened under his regime,” Jeniri said.

“There has to be better candidates than Dr Mahathir, who is now 93. Can’t they propose more dynamic leaders or are they so desperate that they feel that he is the only viable candidate?”

Jeniri proposed Azmin as interim prime minister and Mukhriz as his deputy.

“I think he (Azmin) has done a great job in Selangor. He is a dynamic and forward-looking leader.”

But Chin of the University of Tasmania said that the “Azmin-Mukhriz combo” would not work.

“Azmin only controls 60% of PKR while 40% is under Rafizi. And Mukhriz has no grassroots support. He is there because of Dr Mahathir,” Chin said, noting that Mukhriz resigned as Kedah menteri besar in February 2016 after state Umno leaders declared they had lost confidence in him as the state’s head of government and as state Umno liaison chief.

Jeniri said he expected BN to win the election, but with a reduced majority. As a strategy to win Malay votes, he felt naming Dr Mahathir as interim prime minister was less effective than dealing with bread and butter issues.

“As an incumbent government, BN has the money, the grassroots machinery and they control the media. PH is always talking about 1MDB, which is of less importance to the rural people. It’s still bread and butter issues there.” – December 4, 2017.

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Comments

  • Youth especially millennials do not vote. If you do not have a Macron or Obama, can forget their vote. Najib's base like Trump's base is the key and that is Mahathir.

    Posted 6 years ago by Bigjoe Lam · Reply

  • Now with Johor Official 1 scandal, Mahathir ammo just got a reload

    Posted 6 years ago by Bigjoe Lam · Reply

  • There is no better choice!! Who else can take on Najib? Give TDM a chance. His mission is to get Najib out and later on put DSAI as PM. Meanwhile as interim PM, if he can correct his past wrong doings and get the train back on track to move forward for a better Malaysia it will be a bonus to all.

    Posted 6 years ago by Ong kok dee · Reply

  • I wonder when the political analysts offer their views and remarks, do they really have facts gathering by their research team or do they go down to the street level to mingle and validate for themselves the feedbacks gathered by their interns. Some of the analysts I know after their reading around and some info gathering from certain quarters makes their own semi conclusive remarks hoping their credentialls will help to make impact. Outlining the fear that the young voters do not really buy in to the older folks as leaders and have their own preferences is just making something out of nothing. In most of the past GE the contributions votes from the younger age group have not actually make any significant impact at all to warrant a change in determining the winners.. Maybe the demography might have changed a bit with the nation aging but again the voting patterns at this juncture are still pertaining to the age group who are abled to associate with the current old folks leader. It is a known fact that young voters stayed away during voting day due to their "don't give two hoots" attitude or simply no interest. The Bersih rally had stirred up great interest but the momentum from the younger group are still far from desirable. The opposition leaders of the younger groups are of calibre grade but in terms of political expediency it comes along with age and maturity. It will comes along to them after couple of elections . We will be kidding ourselves to think that GE 14 is battle royale fought with the hopes of young capable leaders to steer the country back on track after the 1MDB debacles or the GLCs institution in the financial fiasco. It is already understood by almost majority of the Rakayat for they have already tasted the hardship which are directly or indirectly linked to all the scandals which brought miseries to their economic well being. It is given and accepted that it is the core of the country ills. The country needs a very much experience guy who will be fast in solutions and very decisive with firm footings
    At this dire situation, the masses who are dependent on economy and country stability are looking for a hero who they can associates and have confidence to bring back their past glory. Who were be the most most appropriate . When no one is available even the devil will do fine if the job is done . With intense desperation affecting everyone a cool level headed statesman with strong political demeanor will do very well. The exuberant nonagenarian fox still with his high passion to make a change will be a much safer bet than others but can't say much on his physical aspect. What the heck!! The freaking high spiritedness of the old fox are drawing the attentions and kinda of help to boost the unity and drawing the Malay community with his charisma. Time is crucial as that is the precious item he has willingly given to us. Stop the crap of him having agenda of his own . Believe me when you are at his age nothing really tickles anymore . He has learnt to accpet that all things are preordained and only for him to propose. It is too tiresome for an old man like him to carry on endlessly fighting for his sons ambitions.
    It is peremptory that the election must be won and if at this crucial period we are flaked in determining who is the best choice I would rather that PH do not win for it is a harbinger of a worst administraor in the making.

    Posted 6 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

    • Blame it on "the prisoner of Bamboo River" for the opposition NOT being stronger. Instead of organic growth, he tried to implement "skim cepat kuasa" through luring of "kataks" from BN. Remember what he tried to do on September 16, 2008?


      Posted 6 years ago by Malaysian First · Reply

    • Agreed!!! This Bamboo River guest has never impressed me one bit. He is also the cause of Malaysia ills today. The Arabisation and the extremes was from his time and doing and manifested ito something of a nightmare today. A real chamelion.

      Posted 6 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

  • The deluded Opp still think the people are still lapping up their forlorn theory that mahathir is going to save their arse. They are sadly mistaken. The next GE will prove to be the worst turnout ever because apathy is seeping through all level of populace. The people don't want and dont believe in the unrepentant sly old fox. The people dont buy it that after 37 years they are presented with their worst nightmare as the knight in shining armor. The people dont buy it that after handing the Opp the impetus in 2013

    Posted 6 years ago by Ju bur · Reply

  • The idea that after 37 years, and after the great push in 2013, there is no better choice than the old unrepentant despot is laughable. It is a testimony if the abject failure of Opp. The turnout in the next GE will likely be the worst yet because unbeknowst to the Opp, apathy is seeping through the ground. Nobody in their right mind will trust the old fox as their saviour. And the architect of OSA can suddenly produce a voluminous dossier to save not the country but his own skin after the forrx scandal. The same dossiers that the Opp begged for in parliament. Ha. Ha. The people will not be hoodwinked like the current bunch of Opp leaders who have lost their ways by surrendering their hard-earned trust from the people and presenting them with their worst nightmare on the eve of GE. Do you really trust Mahathir?

    Posted 6 years ago by Ju bur · Reply

    • Jubur ( arse hole ) you are a joke. Who teaches you English . Google translate. Can you understand your lousy piece. It is a shame that you represent Umno in this forum. The party is already bad and on the way to be kuburkan somemore ada lah jubur yang busuk nak kelentong lagi. Woi Jubur pergi lah belajar baik2 dan jangan tiap kali pikir sodomee sja. Malu lah.

      Posted 6 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

    • I don't trust him either... but ... Tun could do what he did due to the backing of the "strong" BN then but with the small Bersatu he now leads, he will be forced to compromise. He belongs to an earlier age but with the fast changing world political, technological and economical environment now, he will lose in every debate with the younger leaders. He can NEVER be a dictator again but my hope rest on him to remove UMNO/BN ...


      Posted 6 years ago by Malaysian First · Reply

    • LOL padan muka kau, 37 tahun disuap poliitik busuk mahatthir dab masuh ketsgih lagi di tahun 2018. Mimoi ngeri

      Posted 6 years ago by Ju bur · Reply

  • NO, NO, NO ................. to Azmin ....... He may turn out to be MO1 v2 ....eg...... why did he REFUSED to declare his assets publicly even though his predecessor as MB did ...... remember he tried to form DEIG (1MDB v2) ..... remember that MACC caught the assistant to Zuraidah (his lackey) and his nephew .... they may well be only proxies ....... fronting for "someone" higher up ..... as often happened in UMNO ... ()where corrupted one learned the tricks)

    Posted 6 years ago by Malaysian First · Reply

  • Never ever again will I vote for this dictator that breeds, supports and encourages racism, bigotry, division, hatred, donation & corruption. The same goes for Anwar - his attack dog. The core problem with Malaysia is that we do not have enough quality leadership (politician).

    Posted 6 years ago by Chris Ng · Reply