I WAS one of the earliest in Malaysia to use the war analogy to describe our fight against Covid-19.

This provocative perspective has now become a popularly accepted one. But be that as it may, I find that many have yet to realise how multifaceted a war effort actually is.

There are three key components to a war: unity of minds and effort, dynamic deployment of personnel, and mobilisation of resources and industrial production. In this article, let me focus solely on “wartime” production.

No war can be sustained merely through keeping soldiers in high spirits. A general has to aim at maximising the impact of the “men, machine and method” at his disposal.

In fighting Covid-19, however hard our healthcare frontliners fight and however skilful they may be, without personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, testing kits, medical gloves and masks, they themselves will get infected, and with them out of the game, the health system will simply collapse.

Even if the rest of the population fully complies with lockdown rules, if we do not have enough testing kits to trace and test people, or enough masks to go around when the movement-control order (MCO) ends on April 14, we risk losing the war.

And, we need food. We need to grow and import, process and package, transport and deliver. For such a process to happen smoothly, a whole network of economic activities is involved. For example, big fishing nations can’t survive only on the hard work of fishermen. They also rely on engineers to build seaworthy ships, factories to build nets and other fishing equipment, workers to keep quays in good shape, vehicles to take the catch to the market, roads for these vehicles to use, and information channels maintained at all instances. And, they need the research and development that this network needs for its survival.

Wars are fought and finally won on the back of an effective network of industries, through coordination of the supply of food, labour and equipment, maintaining logistics, securing information flows, etc. You get my point.

As we fight what promises to be a protracted war against Covid-19, a few scenarios present themselves.

First, as much as we hope that the coronavirus nightmare will suddenly end one fine morning, the truth is that we will only see an end to the pandemic when a proven and widely distributed vaccine is available. Scientists seem to be in agreement that this will not happen for another 12 to 18 months. So, we are in this for the long haul.

And to manage such a situation, thinking just for the short term – as we are prone to do nowadays – is not going to cut it. We will need more and more hospital beds, more and more ICU facilities, especially ventilators, and more and more medical supplies. And, we will not only need food and water, but the whole industrial infrastructure to secure these basic items for that period.

Second, the world as a whole – and we should let that thought sink in – is in this for the long haul. This is a global crisis, and it means that we are competing with the US, Europe and the rest of the world for exactly the same items: masks, PPE, ventilators, etc. There are already reports on representatives of different nations competing for stocks of masks on the tarmac of China’s airports. Like it or not, Malaysia will have to start producing sufficient preventive and medical items for its own people. No matter how good our relations with China, we cannot keep thinking that China will have sufficient stocks set aside especially for us.

Third, the tourism, MICE and entertainment sectors – hotels, airlines, cinemas, restaurants, etc – will suffer for a long while. But at the same time, the medical and food supply sectors will need more and more investment, and more and more properly trained workers. A major shift is needed in our thinking about investments and reskilling programmes, and this has to happen very quickly if we are to stand a chance of handling this health crisis and the unemployment crisis that it will inevitably give rise to.

Fourth, while we plan ahead for the crisis within our borders, we have to consider the region in crisis as well. By the time the pandemic reaches less-prepared nations in the south – Southeast Asia, South Asia and Africa – the world as a whole will be dealing with an enormous humanitarian crisis. If Malaysia is quick on its feet, and if we are able to build up a strong medical and food production capacity, we can be of tremendous help to these countries. We have the capacity. We just need the necessary boldness and imagination, and a collaborative leadership, in order to achieve this.

Fifth, since the global economy will be in a depressed state for some time to come, if we are able to strengthen and upgrade our medical and food supply industries in the meantime, Malaysia will not only be useful to the rest of the world, but will also be able to boost our balance of payments. To be sure, these are also sectors where we are ahead of the curve compared to most other countries of a similar size.

The government must have clarity and purpose in its array of policies if we are to achieve the desired outcomes. Thus far, the government has not caught on to the long-term implications of fighting Covid-19. The post-virus economic situation will depend on how we activate and align our industrial resources in the fight against the virus now. The full arsenal of industrial policy should be brought to the fore, to build our capabilities and capacities for our immediate health requirement and the future of our economy.

Malaysia is uniquely and strongly positioned in that context.

- We have a strong rubber-based medical supply industry. Malaysia produces about 60% of medical gloves, and significantly, one in every five condoms used in the world.

- Penang, Selangor and Johor have a decent presence of factories producing medical devices for global brands, as subsidiary or outsourced manufacturers.

- Much of the rest of our industrial capacity can be easily redirected to produce for the medical field, and for the nation’s food security.

We should learn from what’s been happening among big industrial players around the world these past few weeks.

- Perfume makers such as Christian Dior and alcohol brands such as Brewdog are producing hand sanitiser.

- Fashion retailers Zara is sourcing material for masks.

- Clothes manufacturer Hanes is producing masks.

- China manages to increase the daily production of masks by more than tenfold within February, from 15 million pieces to more than 150 million a day.

To move in that direction, the Malaysian government will have to strongly signal that it backs the speedy emergence of a medical supply industry producing for domestic consumption initially, but one that has its sights set on supplying Asean and South Asian countries in the near future.

There are multiple ways the government can guide industrial players in this direction, such as facilitating procurement procedures and placing sizeable orders, requesting that banks grant fast-tracked loans for all “wartime” production and guaranteeing some portion of these loans, and providing training or extra allowance for Malaysians who have lost their jobs in other sectors to ease their switch to the “wartime” sectors. It can also direct relevant government-linked companies to invest, procure or get involved more broadly.

Essentially, the government needs to intervene in order to achieve larger and longer-term socioeconomic goals. Such intervention makes perfect economic sense in a “wartime” economy – it creates many new future-proof jobs, and it opens a path for the country to emerge as a major regional supplier of medical supplies, further stimulating R&D in that field in the process.

The silver lining in this crisis is showing clearly, where Malaysia is concerned. It is for the government to be bold enough to act on it. It’s not as if it has any other promising option. – April 2, 2020.

* Liew Chin Tong is former deputy defence minister.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.