ON paper, the PAS-Umno pact will emerge victorious if snap elections are called as its brand of Malay nationalism will play out well in 95 seats where Malays comprise more than 70% of voters, according to pollsters.  

In practice, however, no one can predict how voters will react to the parties, which have helped defectors from Pakatan Harapan bring down a democratically elected government.

Pollsters said sentiments towards PAS and Umno’s muafakat nasional pact and the deposed PH have changed in the past week, when the country lost its government through defections.

Sympathy for PH could negate the rising popularity of muafakat nasional and boost the former ruling coalition’s standing among voters, resulting in evenly matched teams in snap polls.

Also, the composition of the new Perikatan Nasional government will lead to instability going into a general election as three of its main parties, namely Umno, PAS and Bersatu, each draws from the same voter base.

This will make seat negotiations among them difficult, said analysts, pointing out how the inability to reach agreements has doomed a party’s chances in past elections.

Before the heady events of February 24, public approval of PH was below 40% due to the sluggish economy and the coalition’s failure to deliver on key electoral promises.

A string of by-election defeats also made it seem that muafakat nasional was on the rise.

“But the sentiments towards muafakat nasional changed once it emerged that they were part of the ‘Sheraton move’ to form a back-door government,” said Mohd Azlan Zainal of the Ilham Centre.

“The social media chatter was very negative against Azmin and Bersatu. No matter what they or their supporters said, they were called traitors,” said Azlan, referring to Mohamed Azmin Ali, a former minister and senior PH leader.

Azmin, who was PKR No. 2, left the party and brought with him 10 MPs last week. One lawmaker, Baru Bian, has since renounced his support for the former deputy president.

The same day, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin – who is now prime minister – took his party and 26 lawmakers out of PH.

Azmin and Muhyiddin teamed up with former opposition parties PAS and Umno to form the PN government.

However, PH is poised to challenge the new bloc’s claim to have majority support in Parliament, saying some MPs who backed Muhyiddin have changed their stance.

Sympathy votes

In surveys by Ilham Centre and Merdeka Centre, PH’s public approval ratings by the end of last year plunged to below 40%.

Favourability of the coalition dropped across all ethnic groups and ages, and among both urban and rural voters, said Merdeka Centre’s Ibrahim Suffian.

At the same time, he said, PAS and Umno consolidated support from Malay-Muslims, and this was apparent in the voting patterns in the Cameron Highlands, Semenyih and Tg Piai by-elections last year.

“In areas where Malays are 70% or more of the electorate, which is about 95 seats in the peninsula, the chances of Umno and PAS sweeping them are very high.”

Political scientist Mazlan Ali of of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said his own surveys of Malays found that the foundation of muafakat nasional, to unify Malay-Muslim political power under one banner, is attractive to the community.

“For Malays living in east coast states, 90% of them like the idea. It is also popular with about 70% of Malays living in urban environments.”

The question now is whether PH will get enough sympathy votes to blunt muafakat nasional’s advantage among Malays.

In The Malaysian Insight’s straw poll a day after the PH government collapsed, all but one of the 11 individuals interviewed said they want snap polls, rejecting a back-door government.

Ibrahim said the crisis will further polarise Malays and non-Malays along partisan lines, with the former likely to support Perikatan Nasional, and the latter, PH.

The Malay-centric Bersatu’s exit from PH will cripple the coalition’s ability to campaign among the community.

However, said Mazlan, PN will not have an easy path to victory, as PAS, Umno and Bersatu will find it hard to work together during elections.

“Even between Umno and PAS, they have not settled how to allocate seats among themselves because they have traditionally faced off with each other in elections.

“Bersatu also contests the same seats, but as a young party, how will it negotiate with Umno and PAS?”

Ibrahim said Umno is burdened with scandal-tainted leaders, such as president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is on trial for fraud and corruption.

“These are personalities who will drag muafakat nasional down due to their tainted image. The same goes with PAS, whose top leaders are seen as old and out of touch with young Malay voters.” – March 5, 2020.