WHEN Karmaine Sardini was named as Pakatan Harapan candidate for the Tanjung Piai by-election, an oft-heard comment was that he could “recite prayers” (dia boleh baca doa).

The announcement of his candidacy attracted cheers and applause from PH activists in the hall and piqued the interest of political observers and analysts.

Analysts and PH activists believe Karmaine’s religious background will be key to levelling the playing field in the November 16 polls as Barisan Nasional seems to be riding on a surge of Malay conservatism.

Karmaine is a mosque imam and an official at two tahfiz schools in nearby Johor Baru.

He will be up against Gerakan’s deputy secretary-general Wendy Subramaniam and most likely MCA’s Wee Jeck Seng.

Gerakan named Wendy as its candidate yesterday, The Malaysian Insight, quoting sources, said Wee was given the nod by BN. An announcement is expected today.

PH hopes that Karmaine’s religious credentials will counter the Malay nationalist narrative that it expects BN lynchpin party Umno and its partner, PAS, will play.

Another less-known but key factor is that the 66-year-old is a former Umno grassroots leader in the area, which makes him a familiar face among village and surau committees – important opinion-shapers among village folk.

“The crucial voting bloc in this by-election will be rural Malay voters in Tg Piai,” said political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali.

“He has the image of a village elder who is active in the surau, so Malays can relate to him,” said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM).  

“This is critical because PH needs to get at least 35% support from Malays to have a chance against BN.”

PH strategists are bracing for a low turnout among younger Tg Piai voters, most of whom work and live in Johor Baru, Singapore and the Klang Valley. 

The poor participation of young, outstation voters has been a trend in past by-elections.

These voters make up a half of Tg Piai’s more than 52,600 voters and were key to PH’s victory in the 14th general election.

To the scales against the BN, PH has to increase its support from those who actually reside in Tanjung Piai, said Mazlan.

Still close fight

About 57% of voters in the constituency are Malays, Chinese (42%) and the rest Indians.

In GE14, PH’s Dr Md Farid Md Rafik beat Wee, who had held the parliamentary seat for two terms. Farid won by a narrow 524 votes against Wee. Nordin Othman of PAS polled 2,962 votes.

The coalition believes that Umno and PAS are determined to win Tg Piai by playing up Muslim nationalist sentiments, said a Johor PH leader.

Umno and PAS sealed a political pact last month, which will see them form a Malay nationalist opposition front to take on PH in the 15th general election.

In Tg Piai, Umno and PAS believe their combined votes in GE14 can overcome PH’s slim majority.

“The opposition’s narrative in this by-election is that PH is not Islamic enough, it does not take care of the Malays and that it is being controlled by DAP,” the PH leader said, requesting anonymity.

“So, because we worry that Malays will be swayed by this, we chose a candidate who can counter these accusations. He is also of roughly the same age as many of the older folk we expect to be voting in large numbers in the by-election.”

Although the choice of Karmaine departs from the PH trend of opting for young, fresh faces, political analyst Mohd Azlan Zainal believes that in Tg Piai it is an advantage.

“If you have a younger candidate, it will take time for him to go around and introduce himself to everyone. Whereas Karmaine is a local guy and he is known to Malays due to his past activism with Umno.”

Azlan, however, said PH still has an uphill battle if it wants to retain Tg Piai, as it requires the coalition to maintain the same level of support among Chinese and Indian voters.

Other analysts predict that issues, such as teaching khat to Primary Four pupils and the reluctance to extradite controversial preacher Dr Zakir Naik, will dampen support for PH from among non-Muslims, its core supporters.

“Even if they gain more Malay votes, they must do so without jeopardising support from non-Malays. It’s still a close contest.” – October 30, 2019.