A SLEW of issues have affected Pakatan Harapan’s non-Malay support base, making the coalition’s bid to retain the Tg Piai parliamentary seat an uphill battle, said analysts.

They told The Malaysian Insight issues, such as the introduction of khat into the Bahasa Malaysia syllabus in vernacular schools, Putrajaya’s reluctance to act on controversial Muslim preacher Dr Zakir Naik and socio-economic factors, have eaten into the pact’s non-Malay support base since the May 9 general election last year.

Sunway University political scientist Dr Wong Chin Huat said Tg Piai could play out in the same way that the Cameron Highlands by-election did with Barisan Nasional retaining the seat with a comfortable majority, after retaining it with razor-thin majorities in two past general elections.

“I think (the) Tg Piai by-election will register substantially lower turnout among the Chinese (and likely Indians, too), and possibly some will swing towards BN, too.

“Tg Piai is quite similar to Cameron Highlands (voter-racial breakdown) and with Umno and PAS Malay votes combined, the advantage is with the opposition,” Wong said.

In the last elections, Bersatu’s Dr Md Farid Md Rafik beat MCA’s Wee Jeck Seng, who held the Johor parliamentary seat for two terms, by a narrow 524 votes. Nordin Othman of PAS polled 2,962 votes.

The combined votes of the PAS and BN candidates would have defeated the PH candidate. The constituency has 53,528 voters, 57% of which are Malay, Chinese (42%) and Indians (1%).

In the Cameron Highlands by-election earlier this year, BN component MIC was compelled to make way for an Orang Asli candidate as the BN leadership felt a candidate from the community stood a better chance of winning the seat – which turned out to be correct.

Umno and PAS worked together unofficially to drum up support for the candidate, setting the stage for future cooperation in state by-elections in Semenyih in Selangor and Rantau in Negri Sembilan.

Though Bersatu, which won the seat had confirmed it will contest, BN has been circumspect about its candidate leading to speculation that Umno wants to field a Malay candidate to better the chances of the coalition.

The Malay party had also formalised its working arrangement with it long-time nemesis and inked a charter to cooperate.

The Islamist party said it will sit out the by-election and pledged its support to BN.

Despite the decline and the new alliance between the country’s top two Malay parties, Wong felt a united PH with a clearer direction on policies and succession can arrest this trend among non-Malays.

On the other hand, he said, more internal bickering between and within PH parties will keep more non-Malay voters at home.

Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng said the non-Malay gripe is centred on the government’s lack of will to fulfil its GE14 pledges.

Khoo said Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s remarks that some of the election promises may not be easy to fulfil are not a good justification.

The by-election will serve as a test for PH on some of its decisions over the last few weeks, he said.

“The protection of Dr Zakir Naik, forced introduction of khat into BM syllabus, etc are going to be tested in the next by-election.”

Despite the issues and discontent, University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute director Prof James Chin said the choice of candidate could tilt it for either side.  

“It will be a close fight, so everything will come down to who is the candidate,” he said, noting that Umno and PAS will want to show their new charter works and can make a difference in the next general election.

PH is expected to name its candidate next week. Nomination day is set for November 2 and polling on November 16. – October 18, 2019.