ASIDE from the internal schism caused by Amanah, PAS stands to lose more seats in the next elections as it is increasingly seen to be wanting to be similar to Umno, a forum heard today.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia lecturer Dr Faisal S. Hazis said in political marketing, parties try to distinguish themselves by highlighting the ideological differences between their rivals.

“But since PAS has started warming up to Umno in the last couple of years, they have shown that they are actually fighting for the same cause, which is Islam,” Faisal said.

And once a party has lost its distinctiveness, voters cannot differentiate the competing party from the incumbent, he added.

“And if that’s the case, you’ll see voters choosing the incumbent rather than its rivals,” said the UKM lecturer.

Faisal was speaking alongside Dr Johan Saravanamuttu of S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore and Merdeka Center for Opinion Research programme director Ibrhim Suffian during the “Multi-Cornered Contest: Bane or Boon?” forum today. The session was moderated by Universiti Malaya’s Dr Khoo Ying Hooi.

Back in the wilderness

Another reason PAS is expected to fare badly is due to the loss of non-Malay support.

“Historically, whenever PAS is out of any coalition, whether it was Barisan Nasional in the 1970s or Barisan Alternatif in 1990s, it fares poorly during elections,” said Johan during the presentation.

Using Serdang MP Ong Kian Ming’s recent essay “Battle for Selangor” as an example, Johan said PAS only notched decent results in Selangor when it was with a coalition.

In the 13th general election (GE13) PAS won 15 out of the 20 state seats it contested and eight out of the 20 in GE12 (2008). But in 2004, PAS did not win a single seat in 21 seats it contested.

When it was part of the Barisan Alternatif in 1999, PAS won four out of the 23 it contested. But when it contested on its own in 1990 and 1995, PAS lost all the state seats it contested in Selangor.

Faisal said the further fragmentation of Malay votes caused by Amanah and Bersatu makes it worse for PAS.

Using the Hulu Langat and Temerloh parliamentary seats as examples, Faisal said the incumbent Che Rosli Che Mat and Nasrudin Hassan are likely to lose their seats due to high number of non-Malay voters.

According to GE13 data, Hulu Langat has 45.59% of non-Malay voters while Temerloh has 33.67% voters. – October 7, 2017.