PAS cannot prevent Pakatan Harapan from forming the next government in Selangor even in the most pessimistic scenario, said Serdang MP Dr Ong Kian Ming.

In his final analysis on the “Battle for Selangor” in the 14th general election, Ong projected three scenarios where even with the worst outcome where PH wins only 35 out of the 56 seats, it could still form the next Selangor government.

The opposition currently has 44 seats, including PAS’ 13.

Ong projected that Malay support for PAS in GE14 would drop between 15% and 25%, while non-Malay support would take an 80% dive among Chinese, 60% among Indians and 50% among “other” voters.

In seats contested by DAP and PKR, Ong said PAS would likely win between 15% and 25% of Malay votes, while non-Malay support would be negligible at about 1%.

“Keep in mind that PAS’ Malay support in the Sg Besar by-election dropped by 10% from 40% to 30%. Given the inclusion of Bersatu in PH, the strengthening of the PH leadership and the breaking off of ties between PAS and PKR, it is not unrealistic to think that Malay support for PAS will drop further in GE14.”

In the second scenario, he projected that PH would win 43 seats with a mini-Malay tsunami.

However, in the case of a Malay tsunami, which is the third scenario, PH could run off with 50 seats, as Ong does not think it is unrealistic to see many PAS and even UMNO supporters throwing their support behind PH in the polls.

“There are many indications that overall Malay support for Barisan Nasional will fall in GE14. The impact of the goods and services tax and the increase in the cost of living have been felt by rural and urban voters.

“Support for Najib Razak among Malays is far lower than what it was in GE13. Bersatu, led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin, has allowed PH to venture into Umno strongholds that were previously closed to the opposition coalition.”

As for Malay support for BN, Ong said he projected a 5% loss for the ruling coalition.

This, he explained, was due to the fact that Selangor voters were more sophisticated.

“These voters are more aware of not just the impact of GST, but also other issues regarding good governance, such as 1Malaysia Development Berhad and Felda.”

Nonetheless, in his projection, he saw no change in Malay support for BN in scenario one.

In scenario two, he project a fall of 8% and 3% in Malay and non-Malay support, respectively, for BN, while in scenario three, where a Malay tsunami occurs, a drop of 10% in Malay support and 5% in non-Malay support is to be expected.

Ong said the projections showed that PAS would be left with no seats after GE14 in Selangor.

“The reason is simple. PAS will be left with almost no non-Malay support, which is important in a multiracial state like Selangor, where non-Malays comprise 49% of voters.

“And, it cannot win enough Malay support on its own to win any state seats.”

He said PH was in the best position to capture the political dividends in the event of a Malay tsunami.

PH, said Ong, was able to campaign credibly to change policies of the federal government that were unpopular among the people, while PAS was unable to do the same.

“PAS cannot say that it will be the kingmaker in Selangor because it is not likely to win even the single seat.” – September 29, 2017.