Umno, PAS confident of winning GE15

Sheridan Mahavera Mohd Farhan Darwis Sheridan Mahavera, Mohd Farhan Darwis Updated 4 years ago · Published on 23 Jun 2019 7:00AM · 7 Comments

PAS, at its annual congress yesterday, approved the alliance with Umno, its traditional foe. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Afif Abd Halim, June 23, 2019.

PAS and Umno are confident their pact can secure them at least 109 parliamentary seats, based on their performance in the previous two general elections, said party sources.

With the help of political allies in Sabah and Sarawak, they believe they can secure at least two to three more seats to retake Parliament in the 15th general election.

Their confidence in achieving this target is a driving force behind their move to forge a formal pact. PAS, at its annual congress yesterday, approved the alliance.

The analysis is based on the following:

* Umno lost 34 parliamentary seats in GE14 from a high of the 88 seats it won in GE13. PAS went from 21 seats in GE13 to 18 in GE14.

* If both parties can reverse these losses and reclaim the seats, between them, they will have a total of 109 seats.

* With the help of the independent Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), which holds 19 parliamentary seats, the PAS-Umno pact will have enough to push Pakatan Harapan back into the opposition.

Strategists in the two Malay parties believe that victories in these seats are possible due to widespread dissatisfaction with PH among Malays, who voted for the ruling coalition in GE14.

The supposed protest votes in Umno seats forced the Barisan Nasional lynchpin to lose the constituencies in the elections on May 9 last year.

Similarly, the same would happen to PAS and allow it to win back three seats.

A crucial 11% swing in votes allowed Pakatan Harapan to defeat Umno-BN in GE14, says the Ilham Centre executive director. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, June 23, 2019.

Some of the losses in these Malay-majority seats, such as Pokok Sena, Kulim-Bandar Baharu, Padang Serai, Balik Pulau, Parti Buntar, Tambun, Lumut and Sg Besar, were due to multi-candidate fights between Umno, PAS and PH, which split the Malay vote and allowed PH to cruise to victory.

PAS and Umno, by ensuring one-to-one contests with PH, will be able to collectively pool their votes to reclaim these constituencies.

An Ilham Centre survey of Malay voters last August found that 11% of respondents would change their GE14 votes if allowed to do so.

Ilham executive director Azlan Zainal said the crucial 11% swing allowed PH to defeat Umno-BN in GE14.

If this percentage returned to Umno, PH would lose Putrajaya.

In another survey published in January, Ilham found that nearly 60% of Malays were dissatisfied with the new government’s performance.

Umno and PAS are betting that a campaign based on amplifying PH’s so-called “failure” to protect Malay and Islamic institutions will pull Malays back in their direction.

“We believe that if we can get the numbers in the peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak parties will join us,” said a source with knowledge of the plan.

The parties that formed GPS were part of the old Sarawak BN chapter, which Umno led. It is believed that they will support another Umno-led coalition in Putrajaya. – June 23, 2019.

Sign up or sign in here to comment.

Comments

  • Just like GE 14 over confident.

    Posted 4 years ago by Besaman Mucho · Reply

  • Sabah and Sarawak wont join them because radical PAS is in the pact.

    Posted 4 years ago by Elyse Gim · Reply

  • Hmmmmmm...

    Posted 4 years ago by Dom Mon · Reply

  • Umno will ditch PAS once they won GE15

    Posted 4 years ago by Lan Lan · Reply

  • Let's see whether the majority wants to go back to the Dark Ages. Young Malays are smarter and will not let the corrupts rob their future like their parents were robbed theirs in the past under the disguise of protecting their rights

    Posted 4 years ago by Concerned Citizen · Reply

  • Wait your turn UMNO - and pray you do not get de-registered before GE15

    Posted 4 years ago by Roger 5201 · Reply

  • Win with what ??? Najib himself can at least said that he has the money to win but as awhole what has Umno and PAS to offer. Bangsa dan agama again??? The bangsa is already self destructing with the hedonistic life style of butt busting and agama is going no where with perverts and liars are a plentiful coupled with plundering being make as sharia compliant. Most of the rakyat in Malaysia are fed up with the distasteful old school of politicking by this two obsolete brain dead party which could not evolve to reform. I would not be surprise that that at anytime a new party formed by the youth of Malaysia, it will be a welcome change and this two particular misfit party of Umno and PAS will be chased out and be dysfunctional in Malaysia soon.

    Posted 4 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply