11% swing is all it takes to defeat Pakatan

Sheridan Mahavera Sheridan Mahavera Updated 5 years ago · Published on 15 Aug 2018 11:00AM · 8 Comments

PAKATAN Harapan will be a one-term government if 11% of the total Malay votes it received in the last general election returned to Umno, a study revealed.

This 11% vote swing from Malay voters, said pollster Ilham Centre, was what gave the four-party coalition the edge to oust Umno and the Barisan Nasional coalition from Putrajaya.

And as the new PH government passes the 100-day milestone of its historic administration, Ilham Centre warns that the 11% votes it received were not “genuine” support.

“That 11% is fragile. They are the protest votes against Umno and BN from Malays because of the Najib Razak factor,” said Ilham Centre acting executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal.

“It was not genuine support because they did not vote PH because they liked or believed in PH’s agenda. It was because they protested against Umno.”

The 11% could return to Umno and BN if PH fails to improve the economy and deal with cost-of-living issues. Also important is whether PH can successfully manage racial and religious issues.   

In a study commissioned by The Malaysian Insight, Ilham Centre said 11% of more than 1,600 Malay voters they surveyed in June and July would change their vote in the next polls.

“This 11% is the protest votes against BN and Umno due to Najib Razak,” Azlan said, referring to the scandal-tainted former prime minister and Umno president.

At the 14th general election, BN won only 79 parliamentary seats from the 133 in 2013. PH won 116 federal seats in GE14 giving it a simple 112-seat majority in the Dewan Rakyat to form the government.

About 59% said they would maintain their choice of party in GE15 while 24% were unsure.

Umno still rules the Malays 

Of the 79 seats BN won, 54 were from Umno, the Malay party that called the shots in the coalition.

Despite being in the opposition, Umno is still the party with the most parliamentary seats. Its nearest rival is PH component party PKR, with 50 seats.  

This fact reflects how Umno still commands the support of a majority of Malays who make up about 60% or 7.68 million of the 14.9 million voters.

This is also revealed in the Ilham Centre study where 46% of its respondents said they chose BN, followed by conservative Islamist party PAS (35%). PH received the least amount of Malay votes at 17%.

Among the three, BN was the preferred coalition for Malays in seven states – Perlis, Penang, Pahang, Perak, Negri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor.

PAS received the most Malay votes in Kelantan and Terengganu, while PH scored in Selangor and the Kuala Lumpur area.

The Islamist party was able to increase its presence in Kelantan and recapture Terengganu because of the anti-BN wave that swept through the country, said Azlan.  

As Malays in these two states were not convinced that PH was a viable choice, they went with PAS which has deep roots in the east coast.

“Support for PH among Malays is only strong in urban areas and among Malays below their 50s who have dependents. Support for BN is higher among senior citizens in rural areas.”

PH must be protector  

Despite PH’s efforts to end racial and religious politics, the survey reveals that it still drives the voting habits of a significant chunk of Malays.

In a list of priorities for the new Malaysian government, about 16% of Malay respondents chose “protecting Malays and Islam” as the top-most concern.

This agenda beat out wiping out corruption and cleaning up the government at 10%.

The race-religion issue was fourth after dealing with cost of living (32%), fulfilling the promises in its election manifesto (20%) and boosting the economy (18%).

“Even if PH manages to boost the economy and reduce cost-of-living pressures, it will only boost its support among some Malays, not all,” said Azlan, adding that these Malays will likely be those who live in urban centres.

“For seniors in rural areas, who have their own land and have a small income from their adult children, they will likely want to be convinced that PH can protect the Malays and Islam.

“Convincing Malays on race and religious concerns will be critical for the PH government in the next five years.”

The study involved 1,622 respondents aged above 21. About 16% were between 21 and 29, 30-39 (19%), 40-49 (28%), 50-59 (21%), while only 14% were above 60.

Men made up 51% of the respondents.

More than half the respondents were in the northern states, Selangor and the Federal Territories. The majority live in cities (66%) and the rest in the suburbs (19%) and rural areas (15%).

Most of the 1,622 respondents are farmers, fishermen or worked in the kampung (21%), businessmen (21%) and government employees (16%). More than half the respondents are in the B40 group (52%) while 31% are in M40 and 17%, T20.

The study was conducted via questionnaires and in-depth interviews from June 1 until July 30. –  August 15, 2018.

Sign up or sign in here to comment.

Comments

  • I'm sure the PH leaders are well aware of the Malay proclivity to wallow in race and religion issues. They have five years to wean these people from their backward worldview and propel them into the world of tomorrow. Not impossible even for these folks.

    Posted 5 years ago by Simple Sulaiman · Reply

  • So in summary, with the majority support from urban Malays and non-Malays, this country is finally saved. It's sad that those rural folks who are still supporting of the thieves in UMNO and to the lesser extent PAS, are willing to sell their country down the drain just for the hope for some handful of money in their hands. Pathetic indeed.

    Posted 5 years ago by Jackal Way · Reply

  • No wonder then that I read on the Internet Dr. Mahathir said pre-GE14 that Malaysia has become a "pariah" state!..

    Posted 5 years ago by MELVILLE JAYATHISSA · Reply

  • Really so LEMBEK always needed protection. HABISLAH MALAYSIA.

    Posted 5 years ago by CHEE Meng Ng · Reply

  • I hope that after four years of fair and transparent government, the people of Malaysia will judge on performance rather than selfish reasons like whether their group is favoured over others. Blind loyalty is what has got Malaysia into the mess it is. So I am not concerned if voters are likely to vote differently in 5 years time. That is the proper check and balance on the government of the day.

    Posted 5 years ago by Malaysia New hope · Reply

  • No I won't return to that piece of garbage that is Umno-bn.

    Posted 5 years ago by Mokhzani Mohamad · Reply

  • Llham centre is surely a very pro UMNO Malay oriented centre .surely they are wrong . Doing a study by concentrating on rural and predominantly

    Posted 5 years ago by Ravee Suppiah · Reply

    • Predominantly Malay UMNo opinion is surely the wrong direction .
      People generally have woken up to the misdeeds time others did too

      Posted 5 years ago by Ravee Suppiah · Reply