UNLIKE the last two by-elections in Cameron Highlands and Semenyih, PAS support for Umno will not be as strong in the Rantau by-election next month, said analysts.

Ilham Centre chief researcher Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said to begin with, PAS is weak in the Negri Sembilan state seat, as seen from voting pattern in the 14th general election last year.

Although not a single vote was cast in Rantau for the Barisan Nasional candidate Mohamad Hasan, who won the seat unopposed, PAS voters in the state seat only contributed 700 votes to their party’s candidate in the Rembau parliamentary seat, where Rantau is located.

Instead, the fight for Rantau will be a test of which party’s election machinery – BN’s Umno or PKR under the Pakatan Harapan (PH) federal government – has the better strategy, discipline and organisation.

Another other determining factor, Yusri said, is whether PKR can convince Indian voters to support its candidate, Dr S. Streram.

The PKR candidate was also fielded in GE14 last year but was barred from contesting after the returning officer prevented him from entering the nomination centre to file his papers over a lack of a name tag.

Streram contested Mohamad’s walkover with an election petition and won, leading the court to void the acting Umno president’s win and call for fresh elections.

Indians comprise 27% of Rantau’s 20,000 voters, while Malays (53%) and Chinese (19%).

“If PH wins more votes from Indians, they only need about 10% more of the Malay vote to win the seat. 

“This is provided voter turnout is as low as recent by-elections,” Yusri told The Malaysian Insight, referring to the below 50% turnout of the first three by-elections since GE14 (Balakong, Seri Seti and Sg Kandis) and the below 70% turnout in Port Dickson and Cameron Highlands.

The recent by-election in Semenyih earlier this month attracted a better turnout at a little more than 70% but one where BN upped the ante on racial and religious rhetoric. 

Without such sentiments against PH, the ruling coalition should be able to get at least 10% of the Malay vote, since 25% of Malay voters in Rantau supported PH at the parliamentary level in GE14.

Malay support for the ruling coalition, however, might have eroded by now following the onslaught from PAS and Umno, as well as some miscalculations by PH, such as its handling of an international anti-discrimination treaty (ICERD).

As such, PH needs a convincing candidate to challenge Mohamad, the seat’s incumbent and former three-term Negri Sembilan menteri besar.

Senior lecturer at Universiti Malaya, Mohamad Tawfik Yaakub, believes Umno will again use the race card in its Rantau campaign, despite the sizeable presence of Indian voters.

“What more when many issues that are offensive to the Malays and Islam are being raised now, such as the latest the LGBT march on Women’s Day recently.

“These issues will be used as political fodder to stir the anger of Malay voters and to push them towards supporting Umno-BN,” he said.

Tawfik said Streram is the wrong choice for PKR as a Malay candidate is better suited, given the current climate.

“With 53% Malay voters in Rantau, Streram will hand Umno an easy win.”

The lecturer from UM’s Faculty of Economics and Administration suggested a candidate like respected Malay figure and former minister Rais Yatim who now heads Bersatu Negri Sembilan.

Tawfik noted that several heads of Village Community Management Councils (MPKK) in Rantau, as well as other local community leaders, earlier voiced objections to Streram as PH’s candidate.

The anaesthetist and PKR Rembau deputy branch chief is not a local born and only came to serve PKR in Rembau in 2017, they said.

PH Negri Sembilan chairman Aminuddin Harun, who is also the menteri besar, said PKR is aware of opposing views in the party but hoped the announcement of Streram as candidate by party president Anwar Ibrahim will be accepted by all.

“It’s already been discussed and settled with those who don’t agree,” he said.

PKR Youth chief Akmal Nasir said it is important that Anwar made the announcement, to show that the leadership’s decision is final, and for a specific reason.

Anwar said PH will not bow to pressure to field a Malay candidate as this will result in playing to the race card used by the opposition.

“Instead of resorting to race, we want talk about justice,” he said, adding that there are many issues of poverty, development and social wellbeing in Rantau that PH would campaign on.

If PH looks to fight a clean and non-racial campaign, Tawfik said it will have to have good strategies and tactics to counter Umno’s expected race rhetoric.

“If PH is weak in organising its machinery, BN will have the upper hand and momentum, aided by the increasing displeasure among Malay-Muslims towards PH.

“But if PH can be tactical, they can avoid giving BN an easy win.” – March 17, 2019.