THE year 2019 is when Pakatan Harapan loses and will likely continue to lose by-elections unless it fulfils its promises and solves bread and butter issues.

An analysis of the results of the first four state and parliamentary polls in 2018 and the two so far this year showed a trend of decreasing support for the coalition ever since its historic takeover of Putrajaya.

Political observers and politicians themselves blame this on the rise of a new opposition pact between Umno and PAS and their vicious use of racial and religious fear-mongering.

But pollsters who had studied the results of the past six by-elections and had surveyed sentiments among the Malays said that while the communal vitriol is a factor, it is not the decisive one.

A bigger reason is the unhappiness over the PH government’s failure to fulfil its promises and make life better for those who supported it – by spurring the economy, growing well-paying jobs and helping tackle cost of living pressures.

An Ilham Centre poll in mid-2018 bore this out and indicated that racial-religious rhetoric has limited traction on its intended audience – the Malays – despite dominating news headlines.

In the survey, only 16% of Malays rated protecting Malay rights and the position of Islam as chiefly important.

The remaining 50% said economic issues are their top-most concern with 32% choosing bringing down the cost of living and 18% saying boosting growth. About 20% said that meeting electoral pledges was the most important.

Although the Cameron Highlands and Semenyih by-elections seem to show that Umno-PAS racial politics carried the day, a close study of their results revealed that anger towards the government’s failures was a bigger reason why the ruling coalition lost.

“If it was true that racial and religious rhetoric would decide victory in elections, then PH would never have won GE14,” said Mohd Azlan Zainal of the Ilham Centre.

“This is because Umno has always used this tactic in every election to get Malay support. They did the same to PH in GE14 but they still lost.

“If PH wants to win by-elections again and even the next general election, it needs to show that it has performed and fulfilled its pledges. The longer it takes to do this, the harder it will be going forward.”

Winning streak

In first four by-elections in 2018, which took place from July to October, PH managed to increase its support levels in all but Seri Setia despite lower voter turnouts, said DAP assistant political education director Ong Kian Ming.

It won all four 2018 by-elections – Sungai Kandis, Balakong, Seri Setia and Port Dickson – due to a combination of voter euphoria post-GE14, weak opposition candidates and the perception of lower goods prices caused by the tax holiday.

In the Malay majority seat of Sungai Kandis, support increased by 5.8%, Balakong 7.5%, and Port Dickson 12.2%.

In the mixed state seat of Seri Setia, PH faced a more formidable PAS candidate who was a former Selangor exco, said Ong, who is also deputy minister of international trade and industry. This caused the coalition to see a fall in overall votes by 7.6% and a decrease in Malay votes of 11.2%.

Despite this decrease in support, PH still managed to retain Seri Setia by a 4,027-vote majority.

This winning streak was broken in Cameron Highlands in January when PH attempted to take over a seat that had always been a Barisan Nasional stronghold.

The rural parliamentary constituency was also where BN and PAS cooperation was at its strongest before Semenyih. PAS leaders and grassroots activists had gone all out to ensure that those who voted for the party in GE14 deliver their votes to BN.

Although the racial rhetoric was dialled up in Cameron Highlands, it was not the main reason why PH failed to capture the seat, according to Ilham Centre’s Azlan.

The coalition’s failure to address problems in the rural economy, especially the plunging prices of rubber and palm oil, and the low turnout among its hardcore supporters in Tanah Rata sealed its defeat. In the seat’s Chinese and Indian majority voting districts (PDM), turnout fell below 50%.

Semenyih and beyond

Things did not improve for PH in Semenyih – a suburban, Malay-majority seat in Selangor which it had also won in GE14. It managed to poll 17,866 votes but lost to BN’s 19,780 votes.

Stronger cooperation between BN lynchpin party Umno and PAS allowed BN to capture more than 5,000 votes with the help of PAS. In GE14, BN garnered 14,464 votes while PAS received 6,996. PH saw a drop of 5,562 votes.

PH won only 25% of all Malay votes in Semenyih, said Kamarul Bahrin Zahid of think tank Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).

In GE14, its support among Semenyih’s Malays was 44.25%, according to the DAP Parliamentary Research office.

In all 17 of Semenyih’s Malay majority polling districts, the conversion of PAS support to BN votes was clear. In at least five of these PDMs, the Umno-PAS combination managed to get more ballots than they did individually in GE14.

For instance, in the Sesapan Kelubi PDM, BN garned 387 votes as opposed to the 285 it received and the 70 PAS garnered in GE14. In Kantan Permai, BN received 2,105 in the by-election as compared to the 2,078 both it and PAS managed in GE14.

On the surface, it seemed that the increase in BN support was from those who had voted for PH in GE14, but IDE’s Kamarul Bahrin does not think so.

“The slight increases could have come from the about-1,800 voters who are casting their ballots for the first time. Even if it was PH supporters turning into BN voters, the numbers are marginal.”

What was more significant was the fall in support for PH across all Malay PDMs. In Bukit Mahkota, PH garnered 1,540 votes as compared to the 2,329 in GE14, a short fall of 789 votes. Even in Kantan Permai, PH support dropped from 2,654 to 1,622 votes but BN only increased its support by 27 votes.

If the narrative that PH’s Malay supporters were switching to BN due to fears it was sidelining Malays and Islam, then the opposition coalition would have captured even more votes.

“The Malay-Islam agenda worked more to get PAS members to vote BN but less the fence-sitters and those who supported PH in GE14. These supporters stayed away rather than vote for directly for BN. But in doing so, they want to teach PH a lesson,” said Ilham Centre’s Azlan.

The protest from those who voted for PH in GE14 towards the coalition had a stronger impact and both IDE and Ilham believe that this trend will continue in future by-elections, especially Rantau.

“PH cannot afford to take their supporters for granted,” said Azlan.

“They are already registering their protest against the coalition for not fulfilling its promises. If PH cannot convince these voters in the next one year or so, it will be tough going into the 15th general election.” – March 10, 2019.