BN-PAS can win GE15 with simple majority, analysts say

SM Amin SM Amin Updated 5 years ago · Published on 1 Feb 2019 7:00AM · 10 Comments

Umno’s grassroots supporters have remained loyal to the Malay nationalist party, a fact that was made painfully clear to Pakatan Harapan in the Cameron Highlands by-election. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, February 1, 2019.

BY maintaining its pact with PAS, Umno aims to recapture 46 parliamentary seats, 16 of them Malay-majority, lost to Pakatan Harapan by a narrow margin, which will give Barisan Nasional a simple majority in the 15th general election

Its confidence is based on the outcome of last Saturday’s Cameron Highlands by-election, where its partnership with PAS earned BN the more than 3,000 votes that went to the Islamist party in GE14, towards a sure win.

Umno, the BN lynchpin party, believes protest votes for Pakatan Harapan in GE14 will return to BN by the time the national polls are called in five years, a belief that some political analysts share.

Pollster Ilham Centre estimates a BN-PAS alliance could recapture 30 seats that PH won with a slim majority in GE14.

Its executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal said had the alliance existed in GE14, PH would have won 84 seats instead of 113 which gave them a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat. 

“BN’s victory in 79 parliamentary seats could have been BN-PAS victory in 126 parliamentary seats if the two Malay parties had worked together instead of fighting one another in the 14th general election,” he said.

“PH received a lot of protest votes from Umno supporters. Real support for PH was actually not high.”

Protest votes made up about  11% of the vote for PH.

These votes went to PH not because of genuine support but issues surrounding former prime minister Najib Razak, he cautioned.

“If there is a drop of this 11%, PH will fall.”

Many votes went to Pakatan Harapan in the general election not because of genuine support but in protest against the scandals surrounding former prime minister Najib Razak. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, February 1, 2019.

Azlan said Umno’s grassroots supporters and young party members were still loyal to the nationalist party, noting that recent defections from Umno to PH or independence were mainly of the top leaders.

He said the grassroots’ loyalty to BN was evident in the Cameron Highlands by-election.

“The young people voted for PH for the PTPTN (National Higher Education Fund), lower cost of living and other promises, but after nine months, they are not seeing anything (come out of the promises).”

Next stop Semenyih

The Umno and PAS machinery worked together well to bear fruit in the Cameron Higlands by-election, after four discouraging outings at the polls since GE14.

The same formula will apply for the campaign for the Semenyih state by-election on March 2, Umno Youth chief Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said.

“What we did in the Cameron Highlands by-election – canvassing house to house and holding political gatherings jointly – will be repeated in Semenyih.

“We realise now that the reality is, we need to cooperate.”

But Asyraf said a formal coalition with PAS was far from Umno’s mind.

The BN-PAS compact earned the Umno candidate in Cameron Highlands the more than 3,000 votes that went to the Islamist party in GE14, towards a sure win.– The Malaysian Insight file pic, February 1, 2019.

Current cooperation is limited to specific issues “that interest the people” and the two parties are still at the stage of “fostering understanding”, he told The Malaysian Insight. 

“We want to ensure that this togetherness is practised among the grassroots and not just at the top leadership level.

“We are working on that.”

No more need for spoiler

With PH yet to find its feet as the government nine months on, Umno has realised that it in the next elections, it needn’t repeat its GE14 strategy of multi-cornered fights to split the vote for PH.

In GE14, three-cornered fights won BN only 32 out of 77 seats. Twenty-three of those seats went to PAS and 22 to PH.

Umno’s 54 and PAS’ 18 parliamentary seat wins combined make 71.  Should Umno win the 46 seats it has its eye on, and MCA and MIC keep the one seat each they won, BN-PAS will have 119 out of the total 222 seats, a little more than the simple majority it needs to form the government.

Ilham Centre’s Azlan sees as potentially endangered seats for PH in GE15 to be Kubang Pasu, Pokok Sena, Sungai Petani and Kulim Bandar Baharu in Kedah.

In Perak, PH seats that may fall are Parit Buntar, Tambun, Lumut and Tanjong Malim.

In Pahang, such seats are Raub, Indera Mahkota, Kuantan and Temerloh; in Selangor, Kuala Selangor and Kapar; in Kuala Lumpur, Titiwangsa; in Negri Sembilan, Kuala Pilah; in Johor, Sri Gading and Tanjung Piai; and in Sabah, Putatan in Sabah.

In these seats, the votes for BN and PAS in GE14 combined outnumber the votes for PH.

However, these predictions are based on the last general election and do no take into account the possible voting shifts in five years due to such factors as updates to the electoral roll and changing demographics, he said. – February 1, 2019.
 

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Comments

  • LOL! Based on just one win he gave this type of opinion.

    Posted 5 years ago by Jordan Lee · Reply

  • There is still a few years before GE15 and many things could happen in between and this joker, so-called analyst can make see PAS-Umno can win GE15.

    Posted 5 years ago by SY L · Reply

  • It is not a matter of whether the BN-PAS can win or not. It is about whether they can govern the country well or not, given so many heavy weight corrupt personalities in the alliance.

    Posted 5 years ago by Tanahair Ku · Reply

  • Good situational reading - Najib lost and not so much PH ( or Mahathir ) won the election. Ilham was one of the very few who called the 3 - corner fight as benefiting PH. Unraveling that into a One on One contest , will favour the one that has grassroot support. It's time for PH to work on program for the hinterland and the urban poor , instead of pandering to the shrill of Greater Damansara.

    Posted 5 years ago by [email protected] · Reply

  • PAS BN Combine could probably win bcoz malay mindset is only focus on Religion what about science n maths n good clean governance. PAS has caveman mentality n BN has a corrupted mindset so how can PAS n BN be ONE PARTY. Rakyat esp the malays hv to make up their mind what they want Progress in future to make ringgit strong like SGD or just study Religion n hv a weak ringgit for All Malaysians to Suffer. Malays hv to come out of Race Religion Cards be a HUMAN FIRST. Religion can only be practiced in Right manner if Human is strong within itself.

    Posted 5 years ago by Tharan Singh · Reply

  • If scUMNO and pas pis pus Taliban lebai cooperate in the next GE, PH don't even have to campaign in any non Muslim areas as they will definitely reject the unholy pact.
    Make Chinese Angry and Make Indian Cry parties will be history.

    Posted 5 years ago by Chee yee ng · Reply

  • The next election will focus solely on creating an even bigger Malay tsunami, as all others will surely vote PH. PH will see less effort necessary in campaigning, while the evil alliance has to struggle to win votes from all Malaysians.

    Posted 5 years ago by Tanahair Ku · Reply

  • Without a reasonable foundation from East Malaysia, I doubt their chance is high.

    Posted 5 years ago by Chean Ang Heng · Reply

  • Ilham centre? I think most or majority of Msian never trust this analyst. Are we that stupid????

    Posted 5 years ago by Tam Yan Cheng · Reply

  • Just look at the hurdles PAS/UMNO team will have to jump before the finish line to win GE15 in 2023. 1. PAS has been inconsistent in successfully maintaining their partnerships in Malaysian politics. 2. By keeping quiet about all the corruption by UMNO, make them share the blame for them too. 3. The many episode dramas of corruption that is going to unfold during the scores of court cases involving UMNO leaders are going to have very negative perception about the leaders. How are they going to win elections? Holding on to the east coast states itself will be a problem.

    Posted 5 years ago by Citizen Pencen · Reply