DESPITE running Selangor for two terms, grassroots members of the state PKR fear enmity with PAS could lead to losses in Malaysia’s richest state in the next general election.
The decision by Pakatan Harapan (PH) to reject any cooperation with PAS in the 14th general election (GE14) has been greeted with mixed feelings.
PKR Sungai Besar branch chief Mohd Fauzi Ahmad, for one, is hoping Selangor Mentri Besar Azmin Ali continues to negotiate with the Islamist party to ensure there are no three-cornered fights in the state the opposition has held since 2008.
“If there were to be a three-cornered fight in Sungai Besar, I’m sure to lose.
“Just look at the Sungai Besar by-election. In the end Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) will win the three-cornered fight,” said the Sabak Bernam district councillor.
There was a three-cornered fight in the Sungai Besar by-election in 2016, in which the BN’s Budiman Mohd Zohdi (BN) won the federal seat with a majority of 9,191 votes surpassing the Amanah candidate Azhar Ab Shukur and PAS Dr Abdul Rani Osman.
Budiman garnered 16,800 votes compared to Azhar (7,609) and Dr Rani (6,902). BN would have still won in a straight fight but Budiman’s majority would have been reduced to just 2,289 votes.
According to Fauzi, the PKR and PAS grassroots in Sungai Besar are still working together even though their superiors have decided to cut ties.
“There are still some PAS members who want to help the PKR programmes.
“That is why I hope the PKR Selangor central leadership will try to ensure there are straight fights in the GE14,” he said.
High-risk three-cornered fights
PKR Selangor secretary Borhan Aman Shah said PAS is still strong in the rural areas and a collaboration with them would benefit PH.
During GE12 in 2008, Mohamed Hanipa Maidin pipped former minister Mohd Zin Mohamed by just 1,104 votes in the Sepang parliamentary seat.
“In Selangor, Umno knows that if PAS collaborates with PKR, they cannot take over the state government in GE14.”
“Umno under the leadership of Noh Omar will not get more than 12 seats in the Selangor state assembly,” said Borhan who is also the branch leader of PKR Sepang.
In the 2013 election, PAS managed to win 15 seats in Selangor. Among the rural seats it won were Tanjong Sepat, Morib, Sijangkang, Selat Klang, Meru, Dusun Tua and Sabak.
The remaining seats – Taman Templer, Gombak Setia, Hulu Klang, Lembah Jaya, Chempaka, Bangi, Sri Serdang and Paya Jaras are semi urban areas.
In 2015, the Morib and Hulu Klang lawmakers quit PAS to join splinter party Amanah.
Borhan said three-cornered fights would be very risky for PH to win during the elections.
“It is hard to win, it is not impossible, but the risk is too high.
“I respect the decision of PKR President Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail who signed the PH agreement the other day.
“But at the same time, I also respect the efforts of the deputy president to ensure straight fights in Selangor and the whole country,” he said referring to Azmin, who is also director of elections for PH.
Chairman of the Action Committee for Pakatan Yusuf Tapar, who urged PKR to hold a special congress on the PAS-PKR issue, declined to comment when contacted.
“I don’t want to make the situation worse,” Yusuf who is also the branch leader for PKR Rembau said.
Meanwhile, the vice-chairman of the Petaling Jaya Utara branch Fazly Razaly said the decision to reject any collaboration with PAS should have been done earlier.
“This is because it was PAS who decided to cut all ties with PKR. It wasn’t PKR who decided it.
“PAS is also seen to be ‘friendlier’ towards Umno and BN.
“If PAS were to collaborate with our political enemies, we should no longer work with them,” he said.
Fazly, who is also a Kuala Langat district councillor, said they will abide by the central leadership’s decision.
“But at the council level we are still working together with PAS although at the party level, we have cut all ties.
“That is how an organisation works, we just follow the leadership’s orders,” he said.
Who needs who more?
PKR veteran Syed Husin Ali said straight fights would have been ideal.
“But this looks impossible with PAS when they have closed the door for negotiations and continued to criticise PKR.
“PKR’s performance may also be affected in a three-cornered fight, but I think that PAS’s performance will suffer more especially in areas that rely a lot on PKR and DAP support,” said the former member of the Dewan Negara for two terms.
Syed Husin also denied PKR’s claim that it needs to rely more on PAS to win in the elections.
“This is old propaganda that PKR is helping PAS to win or PKR needs PAS’ support to win,” the former deputy PKR president said.
The PH presidential council’s decision was followed by a meeting of the PKR political bureau which met on Tuesday, where its members agreed to strengthen PH and to beat BN in the coming polls.
The one-paragraph statement issued after the meeting, however, did not address the PAS issue. – August 31, 2017.
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Comments
Posted 6 years ago by Ali Along · Reply
So now in three-cornered fights, between UMNO/BN, PKR and PAS, PAS could lose some seats which it currently holds and PKR could also lose some seats which it currently holds. However, the question remains as to which of the candidates will get at least the largest minority of seats (i.e. with under 50% of the vote in the constituency contested and thus win the seat.
Likewise, in a three-cornered fight between UMNO/BN, Pribumi and PAS, the Pribumi candidate could draw away votes from UMNO/BN, though who would get the most votes, even the largest minority remains to be seen.
In a three-cornered fight between UMNO/BN, PAN and PAS, it looks almost certain that UMNO/BN will win, unless there is so much dissatisfaction with UMNO/BN over issues such as the rising cost of living, that either PAS or PAN wins the seat.
GE 14 will be "fun" to watch, especially with three, four, five, six, etc - cornered fights.
In 2013, Azmin won Gombak with 54,827 votes or 52.0%
His opponent Raman Ismail of the BN got 50,093 votes or 47.53%
An independent candidate Said Nazar Abu Baker got a mere 474 votes 0.45%
Turnout in 2013 was 107,140 electors or 86.90% of registered voters in Gombak
In 2008, Azmin Ali won with 40,334 votes or 54.65%
His one-on-one opponent Said Anuar Said Ahmad of the BN got 33,467 votes or the remaining 45.35%
Azmin got 2.65 fewer percentage points of votes in 2013 than in 2008.
Turnout in 2008 was 75,619 voters or 76.26% of registered voters.
Going back further to 2004, the BN's Raman Ismail got 39,870 votes 59.93%
His one-on-one opponent Mohd Hatta Md. Ramli of PAS got 26,663 votes or 40.07%
Turnout in 2004 was 67,358 voters or 73.04 of registered voters.
We can expect the number of registered voters in Gombak to have increased somewhat by GE14 and assuming that in a two-cornered fight between PKR and BN, PKR gets 60,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, so Azmin of PKR retains the seat.
However, in a three-cornered fight in Gombak between PKR, BN and PAS, PAS gets say 27,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, that would leave PKR with 33,000 votes (60,000 - 27,000 votes), so BN wins with the largest minority of votes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gombak_(federal_constituency)
A similar situation actually hapepned in the Kota Damansara state seat in 2013.
In 2008, Dr. Mohd Nasir Hashim of Parti Sosialis Malaysia running under a PKR ticket got 11,846 votes or 52.38%
His one-on-one opponent Zein Isma Ismail of the BN got 10,771 votes or 47.62%
So Dr. Nasir won Kota Damansara
In 2013, in a six-cornered fight, Halimaton Saadiah Bohan of the BN got 16,387 votes or 42.27%
Still contesting under the PKR ticket, Dr. Nasir got 14,860 votes or 38.33%
PAS entered the fray with Ridzuan Ismail who got 7,312 votes of 18.86%
Independent candidate Halmi Omar got 116 votes or 0.30%
Independent candidate Edros Abdullah got 57 votes or 0.15%
Independent candidate Suppiah Anandan got 39 votes or 0.10%
BN won Kota Damansara with the largest minority of 42.27%
Going back to 2004 when BN stood head-on-head with PAS,
Mohd Mokhtar Ahmad Dahlan of the BN got 12,926 votes or 72.81%
Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof of PAS got 4,827 votes or 27.19%
BN won of course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kota_Damansara_(state_constituency)
When PAS was part of Pakatan, PAS loyalists would vote for the PKR or DAP candidate where no PAS candidate stood but now that PAS loyalists are split between PAS and PAN, PAS' former vote could be about halved in a contest involving PAS and PAN (a.k.a. Amanah), such as happened in the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar byelections in which BN retained the two seats with a slim majority of votes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sungai_Besar_(federal_constituency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuala_Kangsar_(federal_constituency)
GE 14 will be more interesting, with PAS' exit from Pakatan, then the split in PAS into PAS and PAN, with PAN joining Pakatan, then with the formation of Pribumi by ex-UMNO people, then Pribumi joining Pakatan.
Now PAS can split the Pakatan vote, PAN will split the PAS vote as it did in the above two byelections and Pribumi can split the UMNO vote.
So what happens if BN wins the largest minority of seats in parliament. Can it rule as a minority government or will it have to find a party with enough seats to form a coalition government with a simple majority of seats?
Posted 6 years ago by IT Scheiss · Reply