ON paper, Pakatan Harapan is certain to lose the Cameron Highlands by-election. The ruling pact has little traction among rural Malays upset about plunging commodity prices and incited by a racist opposition campaign.

PH may also not be able to maintain the same level of support among Chinese and Indians, as many outstation voters may not return to cast their ballots.

But developments at the 11th hour, said PH activists, have given the pact a fighting chance, when a few days ago, there had not been any.

The PH machinery has been bolstered by what it sees as a wave of Orang Asli support for the coalition. At the same time, there is a possibility that undecided Malay voters can still be persuaded to vote PH.

According to an analysis by PH strategist Ong Kian Ming, the coalition needs to increase its support among Malays and Orang Asli to 30% from the 9% and 10% it received in the 14th general election.

Malays and Orang Asli make up 55% of the 32,008 voters in Cameron Highlands eligible to cast their ballots today. The majority are in Jelai, a state constituency that is a Barisan Nasional stronghold. Chinese and Indians make up 29.5% and 14.9% of voters, respectively.

The by-election sees a four-way fight between BN’s Ramli Mohd Nor, M. Manogaran of PH, and independents Sallehudin Ab Talib and Wong Seng Yee.

The wave of support among the Semai was evident in Sg Koyan 1 yesterday, when nearly 2,000 Orang Asli voters attended a ceramah featuring PH chairman and Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Adi Aliew and Nasri Bahari told The Malaysian Insight that no one paid them to attend, and that they came of their own volition to support PH.

Harun Siden, the tok batin (headman) of Kg Ulu Tuai in Pos Sinderut, is confident that his village will vote PH.

“I think about 90% of the village will vote for PH this time,” said the 42-year-old.

Nevertheless, a PH campaigner who has been working the ground in Orang Asli villages for the past two weeks said the coalition is still unsure whether the increased support will be enough to overcome BN’s substantial hold over the tribe.

PH activists have tweaked their approach to Malay voters, targeting those who are undecided instead of going after hardcore BN and PAS supporters.

“There is a significant number of undecided (voters) here. BN does not have a monopoly on Malays. We still have a fighting chance, we’re not down and out yet,” said a senior PH activist, tasked with going after the Malay vote, on condition of anonymity.

Although these developments are encouraging, the activists admitted that victory is still uncertain, as most voters in Jelai are used to voting for BN.

In Tanah Rata, PH leaders are concerned that outstation Indian and Chinese voters may not return to cast their ballots, threatening the pact’s ability to maintain the 70% support level from both groups that is required for it to win.

PKR communications chief Wong Chun Yuan said of the two communities, PH is more concerned about the Chinese voter turnout, given that the by-election comes shortly before Chinese New Year.

“We have engaged with the people, and they said those in the Klang Valley will return. But, those who live further away will not return because of CNY next month.”

He said PH has made progress with the Indian community, as the pact’s candidate is Indian.

“They have asked their children to come back, but the families said it’s their (children’s) decision. The Indian support in GE14 and now is the same.” – January 26, 2019.