WHATEVER the outcome, it’s a win-win decision for Barisan Nasional to field an Orang Asli candidate in the Cameron Highlands by-election, say analysts.

This is because Umno will not be embarrassed even if the candidate loses as he is not from any of the component parties, said Universiti Utara Malaysia political science lecturer Dr Kamarul Yunus Zaman.

Earlier today acting BN chairman Mohamad Hasan named Ramli Mohd Noor as its candidate for the Cameron Highlands by-election.

“Although Ramli is a good candidate as he’s well known among the Semai tribe and also happens to be the treasurer for Persatuan Orang Asli Semenanjung Malaysia (POASM), he will be hard pressed to win this seat,” said Kamarul.

“Pakatan Harapan still has the edge in terms of machinery, media and finances. Moreover, Pakatan is now the federal government.”

The 60-year-old Ramli is from the Semai tribe in Pos Mensoon, Ringlet in Cameron Highlands. Ramli retired from the police as Penang commercial crimes division chief and is now doing his PhD in business studies.

The decision by BN to field an Orang Asli candidate is also due to the number of Orang Asli  voters in Cameron Highlands. The votes, predominantly from the Semai tribe, form the majority in nine of the 29 voting stations and comprise 22% of the 32,000 voters in Cameron Highlands.

Kamarul said history is not on BN’s side as the opposition has always found it difficult to win by-elections against the ruling government candidates.

“The opposition rarely wins against the government candidates in by-elections unless it involves a famous leader,” said Kamarul.

A case in point would be the Permatang Pauh by-elections in 2008 and 2015, when PKR’s Anwar Ibrahim and wife Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail both won the by-elections following Anwar’s return to politics in 2008 and his jailing in 2015.

Kamarul said the idea of placing direct candidates was first mooted by the late Sarawak chief minister Adenan Satem during the state elections in Sarawak in 2016, where 11 out of 13 won.

“But the system of using an independent candidate never materialised in the peninsular. So, it’s seems a bit late to do it now.” 

He said the strategy was aimed at reducing the discontent among BN component parties when their candidates were not chosen to contest.

Advantage BN

The choice of candidate, the PAS factor and existing PH problems gives BN the advantage in Cameron Highlands, said Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“Rosli is a respected candidate among locals and village chiefs, and that will help him a lot among the Orang Asli compared with Pakatan’s M. Manogaran,” said Awang Azman.

He said Manogaran’s recent comments about how the Malays won’t even buy “kuih” from Orang Asli will hurt his chances among both sets of voters.

“Although he has already apologised for the comments, it would seem that he is insensitive and doesn’t understand the local culture,” said the Malay studies lecturer.

Another important point, said Awang Azman, is the PAS factor.

“Although, they are not contesting, they have promised to throw their support behind BN and the bloc of votes (3,500) will be a huge advantage for Rosli when the last BN winning margin was only 597 votes.

He said that besides the “kuih” issue, BN will likely use this as another opportunity to highlight Pakatan’s inability to fulfil all its manifesto promises.

“BN will turn the tables on Pakatan this time, by highlighting cost of living and escalating prices, which the government has been unable to resolve since taking over last May,” said the Sarawakian.

In the last elections, MIC’s Sivarraajh Chandran won by 597 votes after picking up 10,307 votes compared to DAP’s M Manogaran (9,710), PAS’ Wan Mahadir (3,587), PSM’s Suresh Kumar Balasubramaniam (680) and Berjasa’s Mohd Tahir Kassim (81).

There were 32,048 voters in the last elections with a turnout of 76% (24,365). The seat comprise 34% Malays, 30% Chinese, 15% Indians and 22% Orang Asli. – January 10, 2019.