WITHIN the average human body, a temperature rise of 2°C is the difference between a state of regular functioning (37°C) and a raging fever (39°C).

With regards to climate change, the ‘2°C limit’ is often cited as a reference to the “global warming limit” stipulated in the 2015 Paris United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the Paris Agreement). The scientific consensus is that there are tremendous risks associated with global temperatures exceeding this target. For the Maldives, a 2°C increase is the difference between island resorts going underwater, and staying afloat. For Arctic wildlife, it is the difference between having, and not having, ice to live on.

The challenge in Malaysia has always been to make issues of climate change relevant to the larger population. With the exception of some millennials, activists, and environmental NGOs, most of us tend to think of climate change as a distant threat, less important or relevant than day-to-day problems like rising living costs and stagnating wages.

Academic evidence, however, indicates otherwise.

An Earth System Dynamics study indicates that 2°C of warming would cause an average total sea-level rise (SLR) of 50cm, putting low-lying regions of the Earth at high risk of intense flooding. The majority of these areas lie in Asia; particularly, in South and Southeast Asia (SEA). Malaysia will not be spared such misery.

The National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) confirms these grim predictions, and finds that East Malaysia is likely to face an even higher SLR. Given that almost five million Malaysians live and work in what the Department of Irrigation and Draining (JPS) classifies as flood-prone areas, effects will be nothing short of disastrous. JPS estimates economic costs alone to stand at RM1 billion annually. This figure excludes the costs incurred by expected increases in extreme precipitation, tied to an increasing frequency, and intensity, of flash floods across the country.

Flooding will create a significant number of ‘climate change refugees’. If the global failure to deal with the comparatively low count of Syrian refugees is any indication, we may end up failing at-risk populations on the Indian subcontinent, and across SEA – including at-risk Malaysians.

There is more. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) finds that a single-degree rise in mean surface temperatures would “reduce average global yields of wheat by 6%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%”. If these figures seem low, it is because they reflect average global yield reductions; high-latitude countries like Russia may benefit from warming, as, for instance, ice on the Siberian plateau melts and opens up land for agricultural use.

For already-warm regions such as SEA, negative effects will often exceed average projections. Research indicates that rising temperatures will severely impact rice production in Malaysia, reducing yields by over 12% during peak seasons, and by almost a third during off-peak seasons.

The buck doesn’t stop with rice. At the 2°C limit, oil palm yields are projected to fall by 30%, and rubber yields by 10%. Combined, these two industries would see a direct annual economic loss of RM5.5 billion.

With 2°C of warming, 90% of coral reefs along the Malaysian coastline will be at risk of severe degradation. Furthermore, ocean acidification raises the health hazards associated with seafood consumption. All this will adversely affect national food security and hamper the livelihoods of Malaysian agricultural workers.

Breaching the 2°C limit will make the availability of clean water an extremely pressing issue, leading to higher concentrations of pollutants in water bodies. Regions at risk of flooding from SLR will face added concerns of saltwater intrusion. Terrestrial ecosystems will also be at risk. Pest outbreaks and mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue – already major health hazards in Malaysia – will be more common moving forward.

With a 2°C rise, heatwaves and droughts will occur more frequently, and at greater intensity. Hotter temperatures are associated with higher mortality, lower productivity, and more conflict. Extreme weather events – think typhoons and tsunamis – will also rise in frequency and intensity, and likely exacerbate some of the aforementioned issues.

These impacts, while not exhaustive, provide a compelling enough case for Malaysia, and the rest of the world, to take action on climate change now.

Damages from climate change are projected to cost Malaysia over RM40 trillion (RM151 trillion for SEA) by 2110. Investing in technology today that mitigates our greenhouse gas emissions moving forward will play an important role in minimising these disastrous future costs.

While it may seem an expensive task to decarbonise the electricity grid by introducing a higher percentage of renewables into electricity generation, the long-term benefits of decarbonisation will surely outweigh initial investment costs. Strong, progressive action must be taken from today onwards. There is no time to drag our feet on the issue of decarbonising the economy – in truth, there never really was any time for that.

Yet, the Malaysian Government plans to increase our country’s reliance on coal – the dirtiest source of energy on the planet. While cheap, much of the blame for current and future damages from climate change can be placed squarely on its shoulders.

For this reason, Malaysia’s plan to increase its coal reliance can only be classified as a short-sighted and regressive policy response in the face of climate change. What our country needs more than coal-powered electricity are serious strategies that culminate in the decarbonisation of our economy. Detailing such strategies will be the focus of future articles in this series. – January 21, 2018.

* Darshan Joshi is an Analyst at Penang Institute in Kuala Lumpur. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of New South Wales, and a Master’s degree in Public Policy from the University of Chicago. His true passions lie in the analyses of global energy- and environmental-related issues. He views climate change as the most significant issue to face contemporary society.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.