AMANAH, which turned five on Malaysia Day, is facing an existential crisis, said analysts.

They said the PAS splinter party has survived only because it depended on allies PKR and DAP in elections, drawing support from mostly non-Malay and non-Muslim voters.

As a Malay-Muslim party, it now faces the difficult challenge of retaining its seats in the next general election.

At the most, it may only be able to retain half of the 11 seats won in the 14th general election in 2018, they said.

In the next polls, tiny Amanah will face the combined might of PAS, Umno and Bersatu, which are now in government together, said Universiti Malaya (UM) political analyst Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

Amanah could win 11 seats in GE14 with Bersatu on its side, but the party has since left Pakatan Harapan and is now in a pact with Umno and PAS in Muafakat Nasional, besides being in the ruling Perikatan Nasional coalition.

In GE14, PAS was also on its own, acting as spoilers by creating three-cornered fights.

Following the change in federal government in late February, Amanah faces a tough situation as it lacks its own strength and has so far relied on the votes from DAP and PKR supporters in mixed constituencies, Awang said.

“In GE14, even though it contested for the first time, Amanah could get support with the help of other parties and because of the 1Malaysia Development Bhd issue, which was the mother of all election issues.

“But in the next polls, Amanah’s chances will not be as good, given that votes for PAS and Umno will be combined.

“If Amanah can win half its current seats, that will be good enough,” Awang added.

Amanah’s 11 seats are two in Perak; one each in Kedah, Negri Sembilan, Pahang and Johor; and five in Selangor – a PH-led state.

The seat in Johor – Pulai – was won by Amanah deputy president Salahuddin Ayub by a large majority comprising almost the entire Chinese electorate there.

Another complication for Amanah is the issue of the opposition’s prime ministerial candidate, said Awang.

While party president Mohamad Sabu initially voiced support for PKR president Anwar Ibrahim as PH’s candidate, this changed when former Sabah chief minister Mohd Shafie Apdal was proposed in talks following PH’s ouster from Putrajaya.

Mohamad and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng were both open to Shafie as an alternative candidate, but later reaffirmed Anwar remained first choice.

“It is enough to make PKR supporters dissatisfied,” Awang said.

Little Malay support

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said Amanah, in its five years of existence, has not been able to gain the trust of the majority of Malay voters. 

The market is still controlled by Umno and PAS.

“Whatever Amanah had of Malay support was from being with PH in the last election. For the most part, they have been relying on non-Malay votes.

“That is why it can do well in Selangor (mixed constituencies), because its own strength is minimal and cannot compete against PAS,” said Hisomuddin.

“As long as MN and PN can hold strong and not end up fighting, Amanah stands to lose the seats it has,” he said, adding that given the current political situation involving the conditional alliances between Bersatu and Umno, new dynamics were constantly emerging.

Another analyst, Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub, said Amanah, even as a PH component party, should have worked on creating a clearer identity.

Since its founding in 2015, the party’s own direction has been unclear, said the UM senior lecturer from the Faculty of Economics and Administration.

“There is the perception Amanah leaders are divided, so they need to immediately set the party’s direction clearly.”

The latest sign of disagreement is Husam Musa’s resignation from his post as vice-president, amid talk he did not see eye-to-eye with party president Mohamad.

Husam remains an Amanah member and still head of the Kota Baru division, while the party has also asked him to be adviser to three bureaus – elections, communications and strategy.

Tawfik also said Amanah has never tested its own strength in any election because it used PKR’s symbol in GE14.

Amanah can start making changes by reaching out to other opposition parties, such as PKR and Pejuang, he suggested.

“This could be in the form of a unit for a modern Islamic movement within PKR and Pejuang,” he said, drawing from Amanah’s Islamist PAS origins.

Amanah vice-president Mahfuz Omar conceded that “on paper”, the party’s chances in an election are not good.

“I know from a mathematical and academic point of view, as well as from reading (that) the combination of Umno and PAS votes will win (MN) many seats,” he said.

But Mahfuz said the alliances Umno, PAS and Bersatu forged for the Sabah election may only look good on paper, as they were in fights against each other in 17 seats.

Mahfuz, who is Pokok Sena MP, said Amanah is growing in membership, with new people joining almost every month, but did not specify the numbers.

The party remains attractive to unhappy PAS members – if not as actual members, then through support and votes, he said.

“Many PAS members are unhappy but they do not dare to move forward. They are instilled with the doctrine of fear, but they will support us.” – September 18, 2020.