AS PAS officials thumped their chests at their party’s assembly about how a lone PAS is going to be the kingmaker in next general election, at least five lawmakers were squirming in their seats.

These five are among the 31 PAS lawmakers – most of whom are on the west coast of the peninsula – whose parliamentary and state seats have non-Malay voter populations of up to 30%.

After PAS has said it wants to end ties with the Pakatan Harapan coalition, the Islamist party will find it difficult to attract non-Malay voters, who are the core supporters of PH.

Added to this challenge is the fact that PAS will now likely have to fight two strong opponents for a slice of the Malay vote, thus making it even harder to win elections.

Studies and the historical data show that whenever there are multi-candidate contests, Barisan Nasional always emerges on top. A recent study by think thank Invoke showed that PAS would get the least number of votes in a three-cornered fight.

When The Malaysian Insight approached these five politicians on their future prospects in their seats, and how they were going to win over sceptical non-Malays, at least three were uncertain.

One flatly refused to answer and two did not want to reveal how they were going to win over non-Malays.

Although leaders such as PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang can boast that the party is stronger going at it alone, his lawmakers on the west coast know that getting re-elected is going to be a lot harder.

The PH factor 

The five are MPs of Bukit Gantang and Temerloh, Idris Ahmad and Nasrudin Hassan and Selangor legislators, Dr Halimah Ali (Selat Klang), Dr Rani Osman (Meru) and Iskandar Abdul Samad (Cempaka).

Non-Malay voters in these seats range from 33% (Temerloh) to 39% (Meru). In three-cornered contests, when the Malay votes are split, their support would be critical to victory.

No one knows this better than Rani, who personally does not agree with his colleagues who wanted to end ties with long-time ally PKR – a multiracial party.

In 2008, when PAS and PKR were a team, Rani defeated the Umno candidate in Meru by a 5,000-vote majority.

“When we were with Pakatan (Rakyat) in 2013, (which had the Chinese-majority DAP) I doubled my winning majority to almost 10,000. We need PKR because we won due to Pakatan Rakyat,” he said. His Meru constituency had 39% non-Malay voters in 2013.

A The Malaysian Insight analysis showed that PAS stands to lose half of the state seats it won in Selangor due to its decision to end ties with PH.

Of the 13 seats that PAS currently holds in Selangor, only two are strong Malay-majority seats. The rest consists of three Malay majorities, seven “weak Malay majorities” and one mixed seat.‎

Confidence and denial 

The five understand PAS’s new vulnerabilities. Some are ambivalent, some are confident while some reject the notion that not having a partner with strong non-Malay support is a weakness.

Dr Halimah is uncertain of retaining her Selat Klang seat, where non-Malays make up 35% of voters.

“Everything is 50-50, straight fight or three-cornered fight, we just have to work, it depends on our work, Malays or non-Malays, it depends on whether they can accept you to do the service. There is no such thing as confidence,” said the two-term state lawmaker.

Temerloh’s Nasrudin rejected the perception that non-Malays would no longer support the Islamist party, saying that it was a psy-war tool by PH.

“When we go to the ground and meet them (non-Malays) in Selangor, Perak and even in Pahang, we still haven’t lost the (non-Malay) crowd,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

He claimed to still have good rapport with Chinese voters in Temerloh and that not all of them were DAP supporters.

“DAP and non-Malays are separate matters. Not all non-Malays are with DAP, even in PAS we have the PAS supporters club (DHPP).”

Nasrudin said PAS’s goal would now be to replace the lost non-Malay vote with more Malay votes.

“When we previously had a Chinese tsunami (in 2013), now we have Malay-Muslim tsunami.”

Idris of Bukit Gantang said he preferred to remain optimistic of being able to explain PAS’s policies to non-Malays.

“I’m not saying I’m confident because Chinese (votes) can’t be measured, but I don’t have problems with them,” said the party vice-president.

“The reception is still good, we don’t know if they are going to translate it into votes, we just have to continue serving.”

Idris and Nasrudin refused to detail how they would win over non-Malays, saying that it was a party strategy that had to remain a secret.

Iskandar of the Cempaka state seat and who is head of Selangor PAS, refused to comment when approached by The Malaysian Insight.

“I don’t know, I don’t know,” when asked about how he planned to take on BN and PH at the same time. – May 2, 2017.