SARAWAK Pakatan Harapan’s aim of winning 10 extra parliamentary seats in the 14th general election is merely a dream, say analysts.

Sarawak PH leader Chong Chieng Jen today announced the opposition coalition would contest all 31 seats, with the allocation remaining the same as the last election.

In the announcement at the state PH convention in Sibu, Chong said the state coalition aims “to contribute” an additional 10 seats.

“That’s a really big dream. I don’t think they are able to rise to the occasion. They’re actually on the defensive,” said Jeniri Amir, political analyst with Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.

Jeniri, an associate professor at the university’s communication science department, said Chong’s announcement should be regarded as a “confidence booster to the grassroots”.

“In actual fact, the opposition, especially the DAP, has reached the maximum number of seats they can attain in urban areas.

“Can they win Bintulu? Tiong is very strong there,” Jeniri said, referring to influential businessman and lawmaker Tiong King Sing who heads the state BN component PDP (Progressive Democratic Party).

PH controls six parliamentary seats, which are urban Chinese-majority constituencies – Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sibu, Lanang, Sarikei and Miri. PKR controls Miri while the rest are DAP’s.

For the coming election DAP will contest 11 seats, PKR (15) and Amanah (five). Amanah, which joined PH in 2015, is contesting the seats PAS did in the 2013 election.

PAS was part of the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat coalition, which broke apart following a dispute between the Islamist party’s hardliners, led by PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, against its more moderate leaders who left to form Amanah.

Jeniri said PKR and Amanah will have trouble getting Bumiputera support.

“For PKR, the best they can do is retain Miri,” said Jeniri, adding two BN seats PH could hope to win may be Saratok and Baram.

Saratok MP William Mawan Ikom is without a party and reportedly dwindling support among the electorate and state Barisan Nasional leaders.

“The situation in Baram has improved somewhat since Tok Nan (former chief minister Adenan Satem) shelved plans to build a hydroelectric dam. That may decrease PKR’s chances,” Jeniri said.

In 2013, PAS lost all five seats they contested.

“Amanah is new with no effective grassroots machinery and little resources. They’re contesting against PBB (Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu) and Muslim areas are PBB’s stronghold.”

Jeniri said it was a high likelihood PH may lose Sibu and Sarikei.

“The problem in Sarikei is political intrigue within DAP as it is an ex-SUPP (Sarawak United People’s Party) leader who is the MP,” said Jeniri, referring to Sarikei MP Wong Ling Biu.

Jeniri said the caveat for BN’s victory in Sibu is that “there’s no sabotaging between SUPP-and UPP”. UPP is the cash-flushed United People’s Party a splinter ‘BN-friendly’ party that broke up after infighting in 2014.

“Leaders would have to bite the bullet and take drastic action. There can be no direct BN candidates if they want to win,” Jeniri said of Sibu and Sarikei, which are seats traditionally contested by SUPP.

Meanwhile, University of Malaya associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Chong was right to put a high target for the coalition.

“He should aim high. If he just said we need to maintain seats, people won’t have confidence in the coalition,” said Awang Azman who is a faculty member of UM’s Academy of Malay Studies.

Awang felt PH may lose two seats – Sarikei and Miri – but could win Baram and Saratok, the latter due to the Mawan-factor.

“PKR’s Ali Biju may fight against Mawan again, and he could win if he focused on national issues such as GST (goods and services tax) and state issues such as native land rights,” Awang Azman said.

Awang Azman said Adenan’s legacy continue to be felt in politics. He died on January 11, 2017 from heart complications.

“Adenan was seen to have united all ethnic groups in Sarawak and practice the politics of ethno-nationalism, which created space for PH and other opposition parties to speak.

“(Sarawak chief minister) Abang Johari’s leadership will be tested because he doesn’t have his own mandate. The mandate came from Adenan Satem,” said Awang Azman of the late chief minister who routinely took on the Federal government on issues such as education and hudud laws.

James Chin, executive director of Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania, said PH can be forgiven for targeting 16 seats.

“Of course, it’s their final convention before the general election, so they’re upbeat. Although going for 16 seats is a high target. It is more than double what they have now,” he said.

“The easiest are the Chinese-majority seats but these seats are already taken. The only ones left are semi urban Dayak seats. Realistically, only one is winnable,” said Chin, referring to Baram.

Chin said, based on Sarawak PH’s manifesto, the state opposition appeared to be using the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) as its main campaign platform.

“I suspect MA63 and Sarawak nationalism will also be the main platform for Sarawak BN,” Chin said.

Chin said “one positive thing that came out of the convention is PKR and DAP have learnt the 2016 lesson and will not squabble over seats.”

In the 2016 state election, PKR and DAP clashed over six seats and subsequently lost all to BN. In that election, BN won 72 out of 82 seats.

Earlier today, Chong told party leaders, Sarawak PH had actually reached a consensus long before its Peninsular Malaysia counterparts.

“We have fought each other hard. So we treasure our friendship now,” Chong said to applause.

Sarawak PKR leader said he does not “foresee” any problems in the election.

“What happened in last state election will not happen again,” PKR Sarawak chairman Baru Bian had said earlier.

The 14th general election must be held by August after the automatic dissolution of Parliament on June 24. – January 20, 2018.