BASED on winnability and by eliminating other factors, the best seats for PKR president-elect Anwar Ibrahim to return to Parliament in a by-election are either Port Dickson or Selayang.

Neither seat is among the seats with the highest winning margins after factoring a Barisan Nasional and PAS tie-up, as seen in the last three by-elections. The top three with the highest margins are Subang, Pandan and Ampang.

But Pandan, which Pakatan Harapan won by a 43,692-vote margin (50.94%), is out as announced by PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, as it is currently held by Anwar’s wife, Deputy Prime Minister Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

Subang has an even higher winning margin, calculated by subtracting the combined votes of BN, PAS and independents, at 66.15%. The Subang seat is currently held by 50-year-old lawyer Wong Chen, who is in Rafizi Ramli’s camp.

Ampang, meanwhile, is cushioned by a 32,064-vote margin (41.89%) but is held by three-term MP and Housing Minister Zuraida Kamaruddin.

Penang Institute’s Dr Wong Chin Huat said that Anwar’s choice is constrained by two factors: firstly, voter composition and reaction; and secondly, the incumbents, as most, especially those with ministerial posts, would not want to vacate their seats.

“Anwar must exclude all constituencies with a popular incumbent,” said Wong, adding that the PKR leader should also exclude seats held by incumbents who are in Mohamed Azmin Ali and Rafizi Ramli’s camps, referring to the bitter tussle between both men who are vying to become the party’s deputy president in the upcoming party polls.

The other seats with a high chance of winnability in the Klang Valley are Petaling Jaya (37.03%), Gombak (26.2%), Selayang (22.77%), and Batu (21.41%).

Of these “safe seats”, only three-term Selayang MP William Leong has offered to give up his seat to Anwar.

Other seats in the top tier that have a winning margin of more than 20% are Bayan Baru, Gopeng, Tebrau and Johor Bahru. But of these 11 seats, three are held by ministers while two are held by deputy ministers.

The announcement on the seat to be vacated for Anwar, who must return to Parliament before he can succeed Dr Mahathir Mohamad as prime minister in two years’ time, will be made tomorrow.

Among seats with a less than a 20% winning margin, a favoured possibility is Port Dickson, won by PKR’s Danyal Balagopal Abdullah, a former navy man who was a surprise candidate in GE14.

Port Dickson had a winning margin of 18.12% for PKR and bests 10 other seats that have between 10% and 20% winning margins.

Nibong Tebal, that was speculated to be one of the seats to be vacated for Anwar, falls into the group with a 13.85% winning margin. Others are Sungai Buloh (11.94%), Wangsa Maju (14.60%), Setiawangsa (13.29%), Bandar Tun Razak (17.16%), Segamat (6.18%), Ledang (6.11%), Batu Pahat (11.84%) and Pasir Gudang (17.35%).

Wong felt that Port Dickson would be a better bet than Selayang as it would avoid any factional undercurrents as he is a newcomer.

“In any case, Anwar needs to make a legitimate case for his return to Parliament. After intense politicking and back-and-forth realignment in the past 20 years, voters and the public are suffering from political fatigue,” said Wong.

Port Dickson is also a good choice for its composition of 43% Malay, 33% Chinese and 24% Indian voters, in keeping with the advice that Anwar avoid Malay-majority seats due to weak support from the community for the new government over certain race issues.

This makes it safer than the Johor seats which could be unpredictable due to remnant support for BN in the state.

And given Johor’s distance from the capital combined with the record of low turnouts at the recent by-elections in Sungai Kandis (47%), Sri Setia (44%) and Balakong (43%), Anwar would want to avoid a situation that requires a big chunk of voters to travel back to vote for him.

There is, however, one risk in the Port Dickson seat. With a total of 61,000 voters, it has the fifth largest number of early voters in the country who make up 9.44% of its electorate.

Wong believes that voter fatigue leading to a low turnout and a small margin will be factors that could affect Anwar’s chances in what could be the fourth by-election after May 9, if it is held soon.

“Unfortunately, if his return is perceived as destabilising rather than reinforcing the government, his win will come with a lower turnout and smaller margin.

“Whichever seat, the by-election would be a qualifying test of his popularity for PM. Anwar’s return must show leadership, his manoeuvres must be savvy and not opportunistic.

“His ultimate constituents would be the nation and the constituency’s voters are but the nation’s proxy,” said Wong. – September 11, 2018.