POLITICAL realities, including Pakatan Harapan’s need for more Malay support, were the reason for Anwar Ibrahim’s much criticised advice to the new government to pay more attention to Malay welfare, analysts said.

They said Anwar’s concerns are not unfounded and he means to bolster the ruling coalition’s shaky reputation among the country’s largest community.

With a study showing Pakatan Harapan received only 23% of Malay support in the May 9 elections, compared with 45% for Barisan Nasional and 32% for PAS, the new government has to head off attempts by Umno to revive itself by pandering to ultra-conservative Malays.   

Pollster Ibrahim Suffian said Anwar was likely voicing his concerns following recent moves by the government to be more inclusive, such as by appointing non-Malays to key posts, which have caused discomfort to Malay voters.

“While this view (to pay more attention to Malay rights) is unpopular with most PH supporters, as can be seen in the comments section of the article in English, it probably has basis in the results of the GE,” said Ibrahim, who is programme director at the Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research.

Despite winning the 14th general election, PH had won less than a quarter of the Malay vote, which make up about 60% of the total electorate, he said.

“The concerns are further compounded by the government’s recent statements that BR1M would be reduced or be done away with. This will cause backlash among voters, the majority of which are low-income Bumiputeras.”

A study by another pollster the Ilham Centre, found that only 17% of Malay voters surveyed voted for PH in GE14, compared with 46% for BN and 35% for PAS. 

Although the next general election is still five years away, PH will find it hard to increase Malay support if its reforms do not generate the desired economic growth or resolve some of the cost of living woes that Malays frequently complain about.

In fact, tackling cost of living, fulfilling promised reforms and increasing economic growth were the top three issues for Malay voters in the Ilham study.

Little genuine support

Since an electoral pact between PAS and Umno looks increasingly likely, PH must redouble its overtures to Malay voters.

“So (Anwar’s) concerns have some basis,” said Ibrahim.  

Additionally, Ibrahim said, if PH goes ahead to lower the voting age to 18, it would significantly increase the proportion of Malay voters from about 62% now to nearly 70%.

Malay support for the PH government is on less firm ground than most people think, said Ilham Centre acting executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal.

“Regarding Malay rights, there is anxiety among the rural voters in many constituencies dominated by Umno.

“What Anwar advised was for PH to refocus its efforts to garner more Malay support and to retain the support it does have.”

Azlan said PH has yet to “fully capture” the Malay vote and that Malay acceptance of the coalition is “too minimal”.

“Generally speaking, the Malay votes for PH are not genuine in terms of support for large-scale change.

“It’s more a rejection of kleptocracy and a protest against Najib Razak,” he said, referring to the former president of Umno and former chairman of the ousted Barisan Nasional government.   

Azlan said that in some districts and states, the Dr Mahathir factor is not a reliable barometer of PH support. The 93-year-old is viewed by many Malay voters as merely a catalyst for rejecting BN.

“The first hundred days of the administration saw Malay-Islamic issues crop up and PH appear in a ‘tense’ situation when it comes to gaining the trust of the Malays.”

“If they fail to address these concerns, then PH is in real danger (of losing power).”

PH also needs to focus its efforts on dealing with bread and butter issues faced by urbanites aged 40 to 60, most of whom are Malays.

It also needs to tackle problems faced by Felda settlers, who form a large rural vote bank in at least 54 parliamentary seats, Azlan said. –  September 2, 2018.