DESPITE its winning formula of political patronage and strong personalities, the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition which has ruled the nation for 60 years will finally fall at the next elections because of Umno’s second biggest split in almost two decades, said opposition leaders.

In 1998, the Reformasi movement, which was sparked by the firing and jailing of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim led to the creation of Parti Keadilan Nasional, now known as PKR.

The party not only divided Umno members, but the opposition managed to wrest more than 50% of the Malay vote at the 1999 general election.

Almost 17 years later, Umno’s second biggest split erupted during the peak of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal, which resulted in deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin and vice-president Shafie Apdal being removed from both party and cabinet posts.

The two leaders then went on to form their own parties in 2016 – Bersatu, which is also led by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and Warisan, which is making waves in Sabah politics.

While the Reformasi movement in 1999 largely affected Malay voters in the urban and partial-urban areas, the latest Umno split will have an effect on rural areas, including Felda settlements, said DAP strategist Liew Chin Tong.

“The split within Umno this time has led to Bersatu and will have a great impact on Malays in the rural areas, including Felda areas,” the Kluang MP told The Malaysian Insight.

“Umno only needs to lose 15% of the Malay votes nationwide. If the non-Malay voters continue to support the opposition as they did in 2013, Pakatan Harapan will be able to wrest control of 35 of Umno’s parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia.”

In the last elections, Umno won 88 parliamentary seats out of the 133 won by BN. The then-opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition, made up of PKR, DAP and PAS, won 89 seats.

Liew admitted that BN’s strength lies in the patronage system, and the personal touch of many of its decades-long leaders, adding that PH was not able to challenge the ruling front in terms of its organisational strengths.

“But each time BN loses many seats, we see that it’s because of the people’s anger, just like what happened in 2008,” said Liew, referring to the 12th general election where BN lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament as well as five states to the opposition.

Change in Malay mindset

Bersatu’s chief of policy and strategic bureau Dr Rais Hussin said changes in the mindset of the Malays, including those living in rural areas, will make it harder for BN to rely on political patronage and personal touch.

“Even though they may not fully understand mega-scandals like 1MDB, they have now become more critical of the government because their livelihoods are being threatened with the rising cost of living.”

He said Bersatu and PH are now targeting Malay-majority urban, rural, semi-urban and Felda areas to take over Putrajaya in the next elections.

There are 54 parliamentary seats in Felda areas, and Umno-BN only lost six of those seats – Raub, Kuala Nerus, Temerloh, Dungun, Kulai and Sungai Siput – during GE13.

“In the last elections, Umno-BN got 59% of the parliamentary seats even though they only won 47% of the popular vote because of gerrymandering.

“This time will be different because the scandal and crisis that are happening today are like an ‘own goal’ move by Umno-BN.”

Amanah’s strategic director Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad said even though BN’s influence in the rural areas was strong, PH could still reach out to voters in these areas if the coalition forms dedicated and organised teams to reach out to the grassroots.

“It’s not that difficult, but PH needs a team that is dedicated with very organised operations, especially to address the problems facing rural folk,” said the former Kuala Selangor MP.

Dzulkefly said Umno and BN had the advantage of having government agencies, such as Felda, the fishermen’s association and welfare departments supporting them.

Rural Malays are dependent on many of these agencies, especially those involved in agriculture and the fishing industry, he said.

Sharing seats for greater good

At the last elections, PKR as part of a loose opposition coalition called Pakatan Rakyat contested in 99 parliamentary seats but won only 30.

PKR vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar said for GE14, her party will try to retain its existing seats while “attacking” seats marginally won by BN in the last elections.

But to assure a PH victory in GE14, PKR is prepared to “share” seats with fellow opposition coalition members Amanah and Bersatu.

“For the greater good and collective responsibility, we are willing to reduce our seats by 30% at GE14 to make way for Amanah and Bersatu.

“I am confident the political cooperation between PH component parties will yield very good results when Felda seats, marginal seats, traditionally DAP seats and new targets for Amanah and Bersatu are contested based on our winnability, and with the spirit of ‘for a better Malaysia’,” said the Lembah Pantai MP. – July 31, 2017.