1MALAYSIA Development Bhd (1MDB) may be hogging the headlines in the wake of the latest US civil suits last month, reinvigorating the opposition’s drive the unseat the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN).

However, the financial scandal takes a backseat when voters’ concerns are weighted according to their demographic spread, according to an opposition survey and analysts that The Malaysian Insight spoke to. 

In short, bread-and-butter issues take precedence among rural Malay and other Bumiputera voters. 

Yesterday, PKR’s Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli said an opposition-funded survey showed that Malay voters were far more concerned with fuel prices and stagnant wages than with corruption scandals like 1MDB.  

The PKR-linked Invoke Centre for Policy Initiatives (INVOKE) found that 47.7% of Malays, 29.1% of Chinese and 47.6% of Indians polled were more concern with the rising cost of living caused by the Goods and Services Tax.

Corruption scandals concern only 13.6% of Malay respondents, 15.1% of Chinese, and 9.9% of Indians.

Macroeconomic issues, like gross national product or interest rates, matter less still, with 4% of Malays, 16.5% of Chinese, and 8.9% of Indians surveyed showing concern. 

The survey polled 17,107 registered voters from June 5 to July 14. 

“If you focus solely on the anger towards [Prime Minister] Najib [Razak] while BN is giving out goodies, there’s a chance that the fence-sitters would swing towards BN,” Rafizi said yesterday.

“The fence-sitters only want to hear what’s important to them.” 

In the 2013 election, Barisan Nasional won 47% of the popular vote, but took 60% of the 222 parliamentary seats.

Of the 222 parliamentary seats, only about 30 are predominantly Chinese seats, all of which were won by the opposition. 

Of the 133 seats controlled by BN, 108 are in rural areas. Umno alone controls 88 seats, mostly in predominantly rural Malay seats. 

“I agree with the financial analysts who believe Najib will retain power,” said political analyst Jeniri Amir when contacted.

“You must remember, at least two-thirds of the parliamentary seats are in rural areas, due to gerrymandering and things of that sort,” said the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak lecturer.

“The people there are not concerned with 1MDB at all. You must not underestimate this. What matters to them most are bread-and-butter issues.”

In comparison with BN’s dependence on rural voters, a total of 72 out of 89 seats won by the then Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition were urban and semi-urban seats.

Jeniri said rural voters, in particular in Malay-majority constituencies, were inclined to believe that only BN rule was possible.

“The rural people exhibit the signs of the ‘captive mind’ phenomena. They are being taken in by the propaganda, by BR1M and money being given out. They believe that only BN can rule the country. 

“When the opposition won in Penang, they asked, ‘Can the opposition rule?’. Their understanding of matters outside their realm is very poor. They have low levels of political literacy, which affects voting patterns.”

Universiti Malaya associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi believed the mainstream media was “too focused on DAP and its CEC (Central Executive Committee)”

“The fact is, the government-controlled media is trying to bury the fact that 80% of Chinese voters will vote for the opposition. The Chinese vote is always based on the economy. Every decision will be based on that. They’re very realistic and will not act out of sentiment or sympathy.

“Chinese voters will want the opposition to be a watchdog, not a lap dog,” said Awang, who heads the university’s Academy of Malay Studies. 

However, the opposition’s ability to be the check and balance in the democratic process would remain limited, he said. 

With Chinese voters concentrated in urban seats, the opposition receives fewer MPs for every vote cast compared with BN, which dominates rural seats where most Malays live. 

According to the 2015 census, Malays comprise 50.8% of the 30-million Malaysian population. 

In terms of percentage, the Bumiputera population, which includes the native tribes of Sabah and Sarawak, is anticipated to increase from 61.8% in 2015 to 67.5% by 2030.

The Chinese population, on the other hand, is projected to shrink to 19.6% in 2030, from 24.6% in 2010 and 21.4% in 2015, according to a report by Sin Chew Daily in January. 

Jeniri said rural votes are further weighted in the Bornean states, with Sabah and Sarawak having 56 seats in total, or 25.2% representation in Parliament, despite having only 20.4% of the country’s population. 

Electoral representation is further skewed in those states. Sabah has 25 seats compared with Sarawak’s 31, despite having a population of 3.5 million compared with Sarawak’s 2.6 million. 

To further illustrate the electoral disparity: The Igan (BN)  parliamentary seat in Sarawak has 17,771 registered voters, while Kapar (PKR) in Selangor has 144,159 voters.

“As long as Sabah and Sarawak BN retain the support of rural folk, they will win. There is very strong support for Najib in the rural areas because of what he has done, in terms of allocation and stimulus to help to the lower-income group. He is seen as their leader. 

“And Sarawak’s importance is evident. Najib has come to Sarawak more than 55 times,” Jeniri said. 

Jeniri noted that problems in Felda may prove problematic for the ruling government.

“There are 54 seats in Felda areas. It’s starting to look precarious and this will directly affect the voters. That’s why the issue has to be tackled by Umno if they wish to hang on to power,” he said. – July 21, 2017.