Malaysia's turning point


WHEN the dust settles after the next general election, especially if a Pakatan Harapan government were to be installed, history is likely to mark July 14, 2017, as the turning point that made the difference.

A press conference was held at 12.30am on July 14 at the PKR headquarters. PH unveiled its symbol, leadership line-up and initial policy platforms.

The historic moment could be experienced in many ways. It was the end of a four-hour meeting; the joyous conclusion of months of agony over how to effectively consolidate Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) with the existing PH parties, namely PKR, DAP and Amanah; and, the grand reconciliation of an acrimonious two-decade political battle between Anwar Ibrahim and Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and the forces aligned with them.

Now, Barisan Nasional can be defeated

Regardless, a new air prevails everywhere. There is a sudden surge of hope that Prime Minister Najib Razak, Umno and BN can now be defeated.

And visibly, the Najib government did panic. Ministers were still sticking to the old script that DAP called the shots in PH, to instil fear in Malay voters, while Najib stood in front, attacking Dr Mahathir as if their roles had changed – Dr Mahathir the establishment and Najib, the opposition.

What was not articulated, but nevertheless, was most significant, was the complete collapse of Najib’s three-pronged strategy to dismantle the opposition, which he had been using since the 2013 General Election.

Najib lost the popular vote then and knew very clearly that despite all the built-in advantages of incumbency, he and BN would not survive another direct head-on electoral clash with an Anwar-led Pakatan Rakyat.

The Pakatan formula back then presented Anwar as the central protagonist with a prime ministerial aura, who could bring together all opposition forces onto a common platform. There were two ways for Najib to counter the challenge. The democratic – and ethical – route was to reform the government and genuinely win the hearts and minds of voters. But, as the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal showed, he had no qualms about using underhanded methods and highly dubious means.

How to destroy PH

Najib’s strategies have been:

first, to take Anwar out of the equation, leaving the opposition without a leader with prime ministerial appeal;

second, to lure Pas into BN’s orbit, thus splitting the opposition along ethnic and religious lines (making Pas the main spokesman against DAP), and coordinating with Pas to run three-cornered fights to split opposition support; and,

third, since the central Malay leader figure (Anwar) has been removed and with Pas in BN’s pocket, the most convenient campaign was to call the opposition “Chinese” and DAP-dominated, to worsen fears among Malay voters in the hope that they would then vote for BN in droves.

In short, Najib planned to win by default, by systematically dismantling the opposition. And, in the first half of this year, he was under the illusion that he would win by a landslide and retain the seat of power, and perhaps, stay for as long as another decade. And so, with great confidence, he was seen attempting to remove prominent Umno leaders and warlords before the next general election, and putting in a new generation of loyalists in their stead.

Had Najib called for snap polls in the second half of last year or even early this year, the chances of a handsome victory for BN were, in fact, highly possible.

Between the May 2013 election and the huge turnout of 300,000 at Bersih 4 on August 29 and 30, 2015, the opposition’s non-Malay support base generally held on despite numerous setbacks. After the opposition’s defeat in the Sarawak state election in May last year and in twin by-elections in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar in June the same year, hope that a change of government is still possible finally waned.

Fatigue, disappointment and hopelessness dominated public conversations.

Luring Pas

The year 2014 saw Anwar’s attempt to resurrect his leadership through the Kajang Move being immediately stopped by the courts, Pas, the royal house and other rivals. He was sent to Sungai Buloh prison on February 10, 2015.

Two days later, Pas’ pro-Pakatan Mursyidul Am Tok Guru Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat died, paving the way for the (Abdul) Hadi (Awang)-Najib/Pas-Umno collaboration.

Hadi’s rejection of Anwar’s Kajang Move and the subsequent snubbing of Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail’s candidature as Selangor menteri besar throughout 2014, as well as the open collaboration between Pas and Umno on the hudud issue from March 2014 onwards, meant that Pakatan was no longer tenable and Pas no longer a reliable coalition partner.

Since the March 8, 2008, election, Umno has, in fact, been attempting to lure Pas into forming a de facto coalition to break up the multi-ethnic Pakatan, thus, ending the possibility of a change of government.

Pas remained in Pakatan very much because of Nik Aziz’s commitment to defeating Umno, as well as the presence of progressive leaders within the party, most of whom had emerged during the “reformasi” period with the clear idea that Pas must work as a coalition partner in a multi-ethnic set-up.

Fundamentally, the only way to defeat Umno and BN at the ballot box is to form a formidable coalition that can win voters across ethnic lines, as well as gain significant ground across the South China Sea, in Sabah and Sarawak.

The progressives in Pas left the party after the muktamar in June 2015, which also marked the demise of Pakatan. They formed Amanah on September 16 that year, and on September 22, 2015, the splinter party joined PKR and DAP to form PH.

Leadership vacuum

From early 2015, detailed information on scandals involving Najib, Jho Low and 1MDB became available through Sarawak Report. The New York Times reported some of the details in March 2015, shocking the nation and causing Najib to rally Umno divisional chiefs.

The July 2015 report by The Wall Street Journal on the US$681 million deposited into Najib’s personal account triggered an attempt to dislodge him from within, but it was thwarted through his removal of then deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, rural and regional development minister Mohd Shafie Apdal and attorney-general Abdul Gani Patail on July 28, 2015. Some other critics were co-opted, such as former Public Accounts Committee chairman Nur Jazlan Mohamed.

Mukhriz Mahathir was ousted in February last year, confirming Najib’s grip over Umno, but widening the gulf between the Umno elite and non-partisan ordinary Malays.

Umno leaders who could not accept Najib’s grand corruption, and yet, refused to be co-opted found themselves voiceless. Najib’s support among Malays, specifically, and among Malaysians, in general, plummeted hugely by the end of 2015.

There was a leadership vacuum for the anti-Najib Malays.

Dr Mahathir’s move

There were attempts by Dr Mahathir to realign with civil society, such as his two visits to the Bersih 4 rally, but he did not get very far due to huge resistance from civil society leaders.

Finally, Dr Mahathir made the bold move of quitting Umno on February 29 last year and initiating a Citizens’ Declaration on March 4 the same year.

The declaration, as a social movement, did not get much beyond collecting some signatures, but the visual impact of Dr Mahathir sitting alongside Lim Kit Siang sent shockwaves throughout the country. I was with a senior minister from Dr Mahathir’s era the day before the event. He was trying to persuade Dr Mahathir to avoid having Kit Siang at the first press conference. “Leave it to the second phase.” Also, within DAP, many were unhappy with Kit Siang’s gesture.

Both Kit Siang and Dr Mahathir knew that for a grand coalition to be effective in countering Najib’s systematic dismantling of the opposition, they had to find a way to cooperate. Both were attacked by their respective constituencies savagely, but they held their ground. And, they eventually prevailed.

Muhyiddin and Dr Mahathir then formed Bersatu in September last year to serve as a platform for anti-Najib Malays.

Dr Mahathir was quick to recognise that a single coalition is crucial to win the next election. He told the PH convention on November 12 last year that Bersatu was prepared to be a member of PH. Other Bersatu leaders were still thinking of a loose coalition with PH parties so as to enable Bersatu to have a separate arrangement with Pas.

On December 4 last year, two events were held in the capital. Najib, along with Hadi, attended an event to show support for Rohingyas, while Dr Mahathir, together with PH leaders, attended DAP’s national conference. The contrasting visuals were very telling about the new political landscape.

New, solid PH

Bersatu and the original PH parties signed an agreement on December 13 last year, commencing the “PH + Bersatu” period of cooperation. On March 27 this year, Bersatu joined PH as an official component, in line with Dr Mahathir’s wish for a tighter format to maximise the public’s confidence in the opposition.

The big announcements that elated the nation on July 14 and gave everyone hope did not come out of nowhere. It was the result of many difficult negotiations.

Four presidential council meetings were held – on April 30 at the Bersatu office, May 31 at the Perdana Leadership Foundation, June 9 at the Bersatu office and July 13 at the PKR office – not to mention the numerous smaller meetings in between, held in multiple formats and groupings.

That the parties have come together as a coalition naturally means that they are different and have different constituencies. Otherwise, they could have just formed a single party. At the heart of it was the question how the 1997 split between Anwar and Dr Mahathir could have reconciled this year. After all, there is the subtle question of competing pre-eminence between PKR and Bersatu.

The process was deadlocked in the June 9 meeting, but “unlocked” after Dr Mahathir and Nurul Izzah Anwar met in London during Hari Raya Aidilfitri. The London meeting paved the way for the eventual deal.

During the months of deadlock, whenever I was asked about the situation, my standard answer was that, I did not mind giving the 20-year rivalry a few more days or weeks to reach a genuine, candid and full reconciliation. And if it was genuine, the nation would feel it, and it would be inspiring and uplifting, which is exactly what is felt now.

Together again

Now, the nation feels that a change of government – led by Dr Mahathir and Anwar together – would be a return to the golden era of the pre-1997 roaring 1990s. There is a new ambience.

Significantly, the July 14 meeting was Dr Mahathir’s first visit to the PKR headquarters, the home base of the party formed to oppose his rule two decades ago.

Anwar and Dr Mahathir have been the most important voices shaping national politics since the late 1960s. Dr Mahathir became a member of parliament in 1964; Anwar was a well-known student leader in the second half of the 1960s. The duo had collaborated since those early days. Dr Mahathir’s supposedly secret letter to Tunku Abdul Rahman, calling for the latter’s resignation after the May 13 riots, was widely distributed in Kuala Lumpur by student groups linked to Anwar.

Anwar was seen as Dr Mahathir’s political son between his entry into Umno a week before the 1982 general election until his dismissal on September 2, 1998.

In the last half-century, both Anwar and Dr Mahathir have had their devout followers and were able to reach out to the middle ground in a way that no other politician could. There have always been some who sacrificed for their idol even when he was in the political wilderness or, in the case of Anwar, prison.

Najib has never enjoyed such devotion, and Khairy Jamaluddin functions more like a celebrity. People may like them, but never love them.

No Malay leader beyond Dr Mahathir and Anwar has enjoyed deep devotion from his supporters. The combined effect of Anwar and Dr Mahathir is easily filling the Malay leadership vacuum in a time when Malay voters generally hate Najib and his wife, Rosmah Mansor.

Anwar and Dr Mahathir had periods in their political careers when they were seen as “ultras”, detrimental to the interests of non-Malays. But, both made amends and have been embraced with respect and devotion by non-Malays and those on the political middle ground. Dr Mahathir’s Vision 2020 period made him the prime minister of choice for non-Malays. Anwar was also well liked by non-Malays in the 1990s and during the Pakatan era as a prime ministerial candidate.

Promising moment

After the opposition’s leadership structure was unveiled on July 14, it was most comical to see how Umno ministers, one after another, were trying to stick to the old script of claiming that DAP called the shots in the opposition. Such claims will not stick now that it is the joint Dr Mahathir-Anwar leadership team they are facing.

The July 14 “New Deal” is the turning point where the opposition returns from the doldrums inflicted by Najib through the jailing of Anwar and the co-option of Pas into BN’s fold.

Malaysian political history enters its most unpredictable, and yet, most promising moment. – July 21, 2017.

* Liew Chin Tong is Kluang MP and DAP national political education director. The article first appeared in the Penang Monthly.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.


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Comments


  • Yeah, the July 14 “New Deal” is the turning point of new politics in the BolehLand !!!
    What a swelling incisive piece from Messrs. CT Liew! I like best the ensuing para...
    "And visibly, the Najib government did panic. Ministers were still sticking to the old script that DAP called the shots in PH, to instil fear in Malay voters, while Najib stood in front, attacking Dr Mahathir as if their roles had changed – Dr Mahathir the establishment and Najib, the opposition."

    Allow me hereby to proffer my preferred hashtag for PH, free of charge.: #HarapanTogetherCan or #HarapanBersamaBoleh! I further reckon it should be adopted as a war cry in the forthcoming GE14. Any taker out there?

    Posted 6 years ago by Musang Wang · Reply