IT’S going to be status quo in Umno with Ahmad Zahid Hamidi leading with 51% of the vote and Khairy Jamaluddin far behind with six percent in the presidential race.

This is according to an Ilham Centre study, which also found that Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah is set to secure 35% of the division votes in the race for the presidency.

However, the study found that while the remaining eight percent of divisions were still mum on whom they preferred.

Ilham Centre executive Muhamad Hisommudin Bakar said if the figures hold, former deputy prime minister Ahmad Zahid will prevail.

“The study shows mixed feelings and delegates have started to be critical of Umno’s top leadership.

“This situation shows that the ‘warlord’ tradition will be challenged by the winds of change but Ahmad Zahid will prevail,” he told the Malaysian Insight today.

The figures were derived from an eight-day study from June 21-28, involving 581 Umno delegates through face-to-face interview.

There are 191 divisions involved in tomorrow’s ballot.

More than 100,000 members will be voting in tomorrow’s elections, but because Umno practices the electoral college system, each division carries one vote for each post.

Apart from Zahid, Tengku Razaleigh and Khairy, the two others running for party president are Mohamed Iqbal Maricair and Yusof Musa@Jamaludin.

Hisommudin said the presidential candidates had strategised their campaigns to focus on states with a large numbersof divisions, such as Johor (26), Sabah (25), Perak (24) and Selangor (22).

 “The one who can secure these states will have the advantage,” he said.

Hisommudin said with the elections coming on the heels of Umno’s loss of federal power, the question the delegates would be asking was, which one of the three frontrunners was best qualified to lead the party back to power . 

“Some of them say the reason Barisan Nasional lost was because of the Umno leadership’s failure to reprimand its president and those in his cabinet.” 

The delegates would be weighing the candidates’ capability to show them the way to rebuilding the party, reuniting the members, and winning back the people’s trust in Umno, he said.

He said the delegates were beginning to challenge the control of the “warlords” among the state liaison chairmen and certain division chiefs.

“Delegates have started to demand their rights to speak out freely without being controlled by certain quarters. But these voices are still a minority.”

Whatever the outcome of the race, Hisomuddin said Umno veteran Ku Li and Khairy’s throwing their hats in the ring had made for a more interesting party elections.

The majority of the warlords in the party are backing Zahid

Hisommudin said it was likely the votes would be split.

“This is because the division members have to choose between Zahid Hamidi or Ku Li while Khairy has captured the hearts of the youth and the women.” – June 29, 2018.