PAS’ share of the popular vote in Kelantan and Terengganu in GE14 remained largely unchanged from the previous two general elections in 2008 and 2013.

But it was able to keep control of Kelantan and snare Terengganu from Barisan Nasional (BN) because Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidates did just enough to chisel away support from BN in these two east coast states.

In the run-up to the polls, pundits were confident that BN would be able to wrest control of Kelantan for the first time since 1990. This confidence stemmed from conventional thinking that in three-cornered contests, PAS and PH would hurt each other’s chances.

Comparing election data from the three polls, Institut Darul Ehsan said PAS retained its popular vote of 48% in Kelantan and increased its margin to 49% in Terengganu in the recent May 9 election, reflecting little change from its share in both states in the previous election.

BN’s popular vote, meanwhile, was reduced to 39% in Kelantan and 41% in Terengganu.

It was Pakatan Harapan that split the vote in the choice between BN and PAS in these two east coast states, said IDE deputy chairman Prof Dr Redzuan Othman.

PAS ruled Terengganu from 1999 to 2004.

PH, meanwhile, took an 11% share of the popular vote in Kelantan and 10% in Terengganu in GE14.

Redzuan said votes for PH were likely meant for BN originally, since PAS’ share was largely unchanged from previous polls.

BN had based its predictions of victory in GE14 on three-cornered fights. The thinking of most pundits had also been that PAS would only serve to split the vote between BN and PH and keep the federal government and most state governments in the hands of the former ruling coalition.

“Votes for BN went to Pakatan Harapan, PAS’ support remained solid, and it won in both states (Terengganu and Kelantan),” Redzuan told The Malaysian Insight.

In terms of seat numbers, PAS won 37 state seats in Kelantan and BN eight, out of the total 45 state seats.

In Terengganu, PAS won 22 seats and BN won 10. This was an improvement on its 2013 performance, where PAS only got 14, BN 17 and PKR one.

PAS now rules both states, while PH took all others except for Perlis, Pahang and Sarawak.

Outside Kelantan and Terengganu, PAS won 14 state seats in Kedah and eight in Pahang.

At parliamentary level, PAS won 18 seats. – June 23, 2018