NINE months ago, I proposed that we should target nothing less than 18 million tourist arrivals for this year and aim for 24 million in 2024, 30 million in 2025, 36 million in 2026, and 42 million in 2027. Many had dismissed these high figures as nothing more than a pipe dream.

Last year, I wrote that tourist arrivals were likely to reach 10 million. The initial target was two million for 2022 but was revised to 4.5 million in June. The year ended with 10,070,964 arrivals and the average of 1.5 million arrivals per month in Q4 was continued into 2023.

In June this year, Deputy Tourism, Arts and Culture Minister Khairul Firdaus Akhbar Khan said the ministry was confident of achieving the target of 16.1 million tourist arrivals for 2023, which is expected to generate more than RM49 billion in tourism revenue.

In August, Tourism Malaysia director-general Ammar Abdul Ghapar said if nothing goes wrong, we can get 18 million tourists this year. By September, tourist arrivals reached 14,467,037. We are on track to get more than 19 million or even exceed 20 million by December.

Although tourist arrivals targeted for Visit Malaysia Year (VMY) 2026 are the same as in 2019, which was 26.1 million, we ought to gear ourselves for much higher arrivals, starting next year. Also, tourism industry players ought to know where the 24 million tourists would be coming from in 2024.

A clear idea of what is in store for inbound tourism next year is by analysing tourist arrival figures for the first nine months of this year together with those recorded in 2019. By grouping the countries where tourists come from into regions, a recognisable picture will emerge.

For 2024, we can expect 16.56 million or 69% of all tourist arrivals from Asean countries, very close to the 68.5% recorded in 2019. In the first nine months of this year, the nine Asean nations contributed 10,491,826 or 72.5% of all tourist arrivals, which totalled 14,467,037.

The increase from nine Asean nations was mainly due to slow recoveries by four East Asian countries, which delivered 17.6% in 2019 but only 11.9% or 1,717,910 for the first nine months of this year.

For 2024, China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan combined are likely to provide 3.96 million or 16.5% of all tourist arrivals.

Tourists from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal will continue their upward trends and contribute 1.32 million or 5.5% of tourist arrivals in 2024, up from 4.1% in 2019. For the first nine months of 2023, these countries supplied 723,113 or 5% of total tourist arrivals.

Thirteen European nations viz. United Kingdom, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium, Ireland and Norway will probably generate a combined total of 840,000 or 3.5% of tourist arrivals in 2024, down from 3.7% in 2019.

For the first nine months of this year, these 13 European countries provided a total of 593,285, or 4.1% of all tourist arrivals. It would have been more had it not for the ongoing war in Ukraine.

For 2024, a total of 360,000 Aussies and Kiwis are expected to come to our shores, or 1.5% of all tourist arrivals, down from 1.6% in 2019. For the first nine months of this year, tourist arrivals from these two countries in Oceania accounted for 268,818 or 1.9% of the total.

Next year, we are likely to receive 288,000 or 1.2% of tourist arrivals from two North American countries, up from 1% in 2019. For the first nine months of this year, tourist arrivals from the United States and Canada totalled 213,252, or 1.5% of all arrivals.

Another 10 countries from various regions are lumped together here. They are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, South Africa, Ukraine, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan.

Combined, they could produce 288,000 or 1.2% of all tourist arrivals in 2024.

For the first nine months of this year, these 10 countries generated a total of 202,104 or 1.3% of total arrivals, down from 1.8% for the whole of 2019.

And finally, the rest of the world put together will yield 384,000 or 1.6% of all arrivals in 2024. For the first nine months, they contributed 256,729, or 1.8% of all arrivals, up from 1.7% for the whole of 2019.

For 24 million tourists to visit our country in a year, we must be ready to receive an average of 2,732 arrivals at our entry points every hour plus a similar number of departures. The first impression of our country, good or bad, is much in the hands of our Immigration Department.

The pandemic has forced many three, four, and five-star hotels to be closed and those that are operating today may be short of competent staff. Whether new workers are foreigners or locals, they must be trained in interpersonal communication skills and deliver quality service.

In any case, preparation for VMY 2026 should start in earnest from January 2024. We should aim for more than 24 million tourist arrivals next year and a record of 30 million in 2025 before surpassing it again in 2026 with 36 million, and not be contented with 26.1 million as targeted. – December 26, 2023.

* Y.S. Chan reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.