WORLD coal consumption should start declining next year after peaking in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.

The IEA’s latest forecast came after nearly 200 countries at the United Nations COP28 climate talks adopted a deal stating the world would be “transitioning away from fossil fuels” to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming.

Coal is the largest energy-related source of the carbon dioxide emissions, along with other greenhouse gases, responsible for global warming.

Scientists said the planet has already warmed by 1.2ºC above pre-industrial levels, and expected 2023 to be the hottest year on record as storms, droughts and lethal wildfires expand around the world.

Consumption of the dirtiest fossil fuel rose by 1.4% in 2023 to a record 8.5 billion tonnes, as increases in China, India and Indonesia outweighed sharply falling demand in Europe and the United States, the IEA said.

“We expect to see a trend emerging of declining worldwide coal demand, starting in 2024,” the Paris-based agency said, as renewable power generation from solar and wind continued to expand.

The IEA said consumption in China alone grew by 220 million tonnes or 4.9% in 2023, while in India it grew 8% and in Indonesia by 11%.

Elsewhere, consumption fell 23% or by 107 million tonnes in Europe, while in the US it dropped 95 million tonnes or by 21%, largely due to weakening industrial activity and an ongoing shift away from coal-fired generation towards renewables.

The IEA said it was difficult to forecast demand in Russia, currently the fourth-largest coal consumer, because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. – AFP, December 15, 2023.