A NEW escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh began on Tuesday, September 19 when Baku launched “counter-terrorism measures of a local nature,” citing an alleged Armenian military build-up in the disputed region.  

It may look like Azerbaijan is instigating this round of aggression. But there is more to this than meets the eye. 

In the first place, this incident took place amid the joint military training exercise between Armenia and the US, which was to end on September 20. Given the volatile situation there, why up the ante by having a joint military drill? 

Right or wrong, this alone would worry Azerbaijan, even though it was done on a small-scale. 

To worsen matters, Russia regards itself as the prime security guarantor in the region, of which it is an integral part. In contrast, the US is thousands of miles away. 

On the other side of the argument, Armenia hosts a Russian military base and relies almost entirely on the country for defence supplies, so are the Azeris and Russians overreacting? 

This is where an understanding of the historical conflict between Baku and Yerevan, and the big picture of the US’ intentions in the Caucasus will shed some light. 

The sabre-rattling started months earlier when on May 22, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan said there was a very real possibility of Armenia leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). 

Pashinyan had begun to blame the alliance for not deterring Azerbaijan from moving against the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2022 as well as engaging in border skirmishes with its Caucasus neighbour.  

He claimed Armenia had lost opportunities to buy military equipment from other countries due to its membership in the CSTO. 

Armenia, he added, was ready to recognise Azerbaijan’s claim to Nagorno-Karabakh if “international guarantees” were provided for ethnic Armenians in the region, and if Baku would withdraw from several areas of Armenia that its troops had seized. 

The response from Moscow was the usual methodical patience when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would “certainly continue the dialogue with our Armenian friends. The CSTO has demonstrated its effectiveness in various situations” and “has serious potential for further development.”  

A month later, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova told a news briefing the US was seeking to drive a wedge between Moscow and its allies through disinformation and threats. 

This is because Washington is offering various benefits to CSTO members in exchange for severing ties to Russia.  

These include military and technical cooperation and “alternative security umbrellas,” she claimed, warning that these offers disguised the west’s desire to gain access to CSTO members’ national databases, which contain sensitive information on the Russian-led alliance. 

In a September 3 interview, Pashinyan accused Russia of failing to ensure Armenia’s security in the face of aggression from Azerbaijan over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. 

He added that Armenia’s policy of relying solely on Russia to guarantee its security was a “strategic mistake”. Moreover, Pashinyan also claimed Moscow was too distracted by its war with Ukraine. 

Pashinyan also surprised everyone by saying he believed Russia was in the process of leaving the wider South Caucasus region, hence Yerevan was trying to diversify its security arrangements. 

Karabakh, long recognised as part of Azerbaijan, is populated mainly by ethnic Armenians. 

Taking advantage of the turmoil that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Armenian forces captured territory around Karabakh in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War.  

But three decades later, Azerbaijan retook the areas in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which ended with a Russia-brokered truce. Talks so far have failed to clinch a long-term peace. 

Armenia complains that Russian peacekeepers overseeing the 2020 truce failed to end an Azerbaijani blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh.  

By September 14, three days into the US-Armenia military exercise, Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of moving troops close to their joint border. 

The next day Russia made a “harsh representation” to Armenia’s ambassador for signing up to the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant for president Vladimir Putin. 

It seemed like a “eureka!” moment when Armenia’s ambassador-at-large Edmon Marukyan called for US intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

So, it really looks like the US is bent on creating a second front in the Ukraine war via Armenia’s request. 

The pieces are already in place – presence of US troops in the military exercise and the EU monitoring team comprising civilians in the EU Mission in Armenia.  

But recent developments show this plan will break into pieces when victory seems to be clinched by the Azeris and Russians with a new ceasefire agreed on with Armenian separatists. 

Pashinyan himself is facing protests at home demanding his resignation for his mishandling of this crisis. It really looks prescient the famous credo of the late Russian PM, Yevgeny Primakov: “Those who do good will be rewarded. Life gets even with those who do bad.” - September 29, 2023.  

* Jamari Mohtar reads The Malaysian Insight.  

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.