THE rapidly changing population demographic which sees a drop in the number of non-Muslims in Malaysia has already impacted politics in the country and will continue to force more changes, observers said.

They said the composition of Malay to non-Malay populations in more constituencies, which will see votes being canvassed and won on the basis of race and religion.

The analysts said in the last general election and in the recently held six-state elections, seats were won by Malay-based parties in constituencies that had moved from being mixed-seats to Malay-majority ones.

Ilham Centre’s Hisommudin Bakar said more Malay voters in tandem with the rise of the Malay/Muslim population will change the outcome of elections.

“With the Malay birth rate being higher than that of Chinese and Indian ethnic groups, this will contribute to a demographic change of voters.

“Non-Malay majority areas will be balanced with the Malay voter population and will indirectly bring different meaning and results in the election,” the independent pollster’s executive director told The Malaysian Insight.

A comparison of the figures of racial ethnicity in Malaysia over the last three decades as provided by the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) showed an increase of the Malay population, with the number of non-Malays dwindling.

In 2000, there were 20.9 million registered Malaysian citizens, of which 65.6% of them were Malay and Bumiputera, Chinese (25.6%), Indians (7.5%) and others (1.2%).

In 2010, the number of Malaysian citizens rose to 25.2 million with the percentage of Malay and Bumiputera rising to 67.4% while there were dips in Chinese (24.5%), Indians (7.3%) and others (0.7%).

The latest 2020 statistics by DOSM showed that the population has risen to 29.7 million, of which 69.4%  are Malay and Bumiputera, Chinese (23.2%), Indians (6.7%) and others (0.7%).

The non-Muslim population has been shrinking over the years and the trend is set to continue in the coming years.

According to Hisommudin, the decrease in the non-Malay population in the country could be due to marriage and family planning factors.

“The non-Malay marriage and planning factors are different compared to the Malays,” he said.

Backing his claim over how the rise in Malays has had an advantage in the elections, Hisommudin gave the examples of the Hulu Kelang and Sungai Ramal state constituencies in Selangor as reference in the recent state polls.

Hisommudin said the demographics in these two urban areas have changed from a mixed composition to an area with a high percentage of Malay voters.

The 2013 General Election (GE13) electoral roll showed that the percentage of Malays in Hulu Kelang was 80.1% followed by Chinese (14.3%), Indians (4%) and others (1.6%). The DOSM figure for 2020 showed that the Malay population at the state constituency had increased to 86.3%, with drops in the rest – Chinese (10%), Indians (3.3%) and others (0.4%).

In Sungai Ramal, the GE13 electoral roll showed Malays in the constituency at 66.4%, Chinese (19%), Indians (13.5%) and others (1.1%), but the DOSM’s 2020 stats showed Malays shot up to 81.4%, while other decreased – Chinese (11.5), Indians (6.6) and others (0.5%).

With the change in population numbers, both the seats were won by Perikatan Nasional (PN) which banked on race and religion as its campaign tools.

Hisommudin said the strong Malay-Muslim narrative by PN has influenced voters, including the young voter segment.

“In other words, for a mixed parliament or state assembly seat, if the majority of Malay voters increases, then the pattern of support would favour PN,” he said.

Voting day turnout important

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the political weight of the Chinese and Indians would reduce over time, not exactly based on their percentage in citizenry, but on their percentage in the electorate.

Nevertheless, Wong of Sunway University said the election turnout of the Chinese and Indians and their political efficacy between elections can make a world of difference.

“For example, assume a mixed constituency with 60% non-Malays and 40% Malays. If the turnout amongst the non-Malays is 50% while among the Malays it is 75%, when the votes are counted, it would be virtually a 50% Malays and 50% non-Malays constituency.

“Hence, the determinants of the political power of any group are not just their birth rate, or the fairness of constituency delimitation, but vitally turnout rate and their political efficacy between elections,” he said.

Wong said at the political level, what is vital for any minority or marginalised group, or individual citizens for that matter, is competition and competitiveness between parties.

He said if any group holds an unshakeable monopoly on political power, then individuals and smaller groups risk being ignored and neglected. –  September 2, 2023.