IF Malay Muslims are the critical vote bloc in the peninsula for the 14th general election, in Sabah, that honour goes to Muslim Bumiputeras, who make up 52% of voters.

The opposition Parti Warisan Sabah, led by influential former Umno man Mohd Shafie Apdal, is looking to break the state Barisan Nasional’s hold over the community.

State Umno sources admitted that the party will have a tough time canvassing support among Muslim Bumiputeras of Bajau and Suluk descent due to Shafie’s standing among them.

But, Sabah Umno is not taking Shafie’s challenge lightly, with one leader saying the party will “fight like underdogs” to keep its hold over traditional supporters.

The state Umno sees Warisan as its biggest political foe in contests in seats along Sabah’s east coast, like Semporna, Lahad Datu and Sandakan.

Sabah Umno captured 15 out of 25 parliamentary seats, and 31 out of 60 state seats, in GE13.

Muslim Bumiputeras form the majority of voters in 11 federal and 28 state seats.

But in October 2016, Umno lost the Semporna parliamentary seat and Sulabayan state seat.

Semporna MP Shafie and Sulabayan rep Jaujan Sambokong had left to form Warisan.

Shafie, who had resigned from Umno in July the same year, is now Warisan president, while Jaujan is one of the party’s vice-presidents.

Kinabatangan Umno chief and MP Bung Moktar Radin believes that Warisan will put up a good fight in the elections, but that the party will not be able to defeat the state BN.

He said the state Umno had a head start in preparing for GE14.

“We have worked on preparing ourselves early. I think our machinery started working even before Warisan came into the picture, after GE13.

“Our machinery is now ready for deployment, and is only awaiting the dissolution of Parliament,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

“We cannot underestimate our opponents, therefore, Umno will go all out with its machinery. Our people will work like underdogs to defend these seats.”

Bung Moktar said he expects tough battles in Semporna and Lahad Datu.

Drawing huge crowds

Warisan leaders said the huge turnout at the party’s events is a sign that the tide is shifting away from Umno.

Semporna Warisan deputy chief Hisham Fattah said his party is able to garner majority support in east coast constituencies, such as Kinabatangan, Kudat, Kunak, Sandakan, Lahad Datu and Silam, as well as Semporna itself.

“There is growing acceptance among Sabahans of Warisan. We believe we can win some state seats.”

Kalabakan Warisan Wanita chief Salmah Aziz said the party’s programmes held in the east coast are usually swarmed by supporters and members of the public.

She said unlike at Sabah Umno events, those who turn up at Warisan programmes do so voluntarily.

“My own observation is that the huge crowds at Umno or any BN party’s events… people from rural areas are ferried in on buses.”

Analysts, however, do not think that Warisan or Sabah’s other opposition parties, like those in Pakatan Harapan or the United Sabah Alliance, can break the state Umno’s hold over Muslim Bumiputeras.

Sabah Umno deputy information chief Ramlee Marahaban admitted that Shafie’s influence led to the party being divided, when the latter left in 2016.

“We know that Shafie will give us in Umno a tough time. But, we are slowly regaining support. We are not overconfident, but we have all the numbers and we can prove it to the opposition.”

He said he believes that at the end of the day, Umno’s deep roots in Sabah – through the branches and divisions it has built over some three decades – will be what saves the ruling BN coalition.

Warisan has been operational for only a little more than a year.

“We know our own people. And, we have an organised system,” said Ramlee.

“We have divisions, branches, and in them, we have the Youth and Wanita movements. All these structures are strong and organised.” – March 29, 2018.