BN will win GE14 with only 42% of vote

Zulkifli Sulong Zulkifli Sulong Updated 6 years ago · Published on 29 Mar 2018 7:00AM · 6 Comments

Opposition members of parliament holding a protest against the re-delineation bill after its tabling at Parliament yesterday. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Hasnoor Hussain, March 29, 2018.

IF the elections are held today, Barisan Nasional is expected to retain power even if it has lost the trust of six out of every 10 voters.

A study by think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan found BN will win a majority of the 222 parliamentary seats, but with just 42% of the popular vote.

Despite a drop in the popular vote from 47% in the 13th general election, BN is expected to win more parliamentary seats compared with the 133 it captured five years ago, the think-tank said. 

This is because of the redrawing of electoral boundaries or re-delineation, which creates more mono-ethnic constituencies, said IDE deputy chairman Dr Redzuan Othman.

BN, Redzuan said, is also expected to retain Johor, which is facing an onslaught from Pakatan Harapan, but it will lose Kedah.

The study, which polled 5,000 respondents and used 95 enumerators, ended on March 26.

“What is for sure, according to this research, PH, in particular, Amanah, will defeat PAS in Kelantan but in the west coast, PAS will defeat PH,” the Unisel vice-chancellor said.

The study also found that PAS will lose Kelantan, which it has ruled for close to three decades due to three-cornered fights. 

“PAS will get several seats but it will not retain the state government.”

In Johor, the Malays would support Umno despite the fact that they are unhappy with the Najib administration. 

“The Muhyiddin influence is not strong enough to pull Umno supporters to PH but the Dr Mahathir and Mukhriz influence will draw Umno support in Kedah for PH.”

PH’s campaign in Johor is being led former Umno deputy president and Johor menteri besar Muhyiddin Yassin, who is the opposition coalition’s Johor chief.

PH prime minister-designate Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son, Mukhriz Mahathir, are expected to contest in Kedah.  

“This is the current study, it will be different if there is a wave of change after the dissolution of Parliament,” Redzuan said. 

IDE also found that PH will continue to rule in Selangor and Penang but Umno will the party to win the most seats in Selangor. 

“Umno will win up to 20 seats in Selangor through the new re-delineation, but the cooperation in PH will ensure the current government remains in power,” Redzuan said, referring to the 56-seat Selangor assembly. 

PAS is expected to lose all its 13 state seats in Selangor when it won’t even win 1% of the Chinese vote and only 14% of the Malay votes. In 2013, it garnered 18% of the Malay vote.  

“It appears that PAS will be isolated in Selangor and also will be the loner in the elections,” Redzuan said. 

The study also found that BN coalition parties like MCA, Gerakan and MIC will be almost wiped out because of the shape and character of the new electoral constituencies.  

“The issue is, will the public accept such a result? Umno will win big but the component parties will lose it all, through the manipulation of electoral boundaries,” Redzuan added.

The new electoral boundaries report was passed yesterday despite a protest earlier and the opposition vote against it.

It is speculated that the new boundaries will create more Malay-majority seats and a smaller number of non-Malay majority seats.  

Critics said new boundaries are to give BN an advantage on the presumption that Malays will largely support the party in GE14.

IDE is expected to table the detailed study at a seminar in early April. – March 29, 2018.

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Comments

  • Hey, Think Tank. How about the likelihood that BN will gain much much more than 42% of the vote. In fact there is a distinct possibility they will go close to gaining a 2/3 majority. Harapan have pretty well assured the latter. So in fact your alarmist scaremongering is just more Harapan hot air. Your profoundly naive assumption that BN’s share of the vote will decline shows you are not doing enough THINKING , but you are doing way too much TALKING

    Posted 6 years ago by Dennis Da Menace · Reply

    • LMAO. the whole reason scumno came up with this retarded redelination plan is bc they're pissing their pants (like that stupid prof from the world's 891st-ranked university) over the fact that they're gonna LOSE even MORE of the popular vote than they did during the last election. so this isn't scaremongering, its fact - but yes, admittedly, UMNO knows nothing about facts and they're the true purveyors of fake news. just watch UMNO steal this election through ridiculous and retarded gerrymandering, while getting <45% of the popular vote bc the majority of malaysians are sick and tired of their inability to bring the country forward. its time for change, enough of this useless BN bs.

      Posted 6 years ago by Tommy richard · Reply

  • At least you got one thing right. “the Malays would support Umno despite the fact that they are unhappy with the Najib administration. “. But, not only Johor, that will be a nationwide trend. Add that to the disillusioned Chinese and Indians and you have a Harapan rout on your hands. A rout that all the seat counting and candidate shuffling will do nothing to dilute. Harapan have crapped in their own nest to a degree impossible to imagine after the result of GE13


    Posted 6 years ago by Dennis Da Menace · Reply

    • yawnnnnnnn

      Posted 6 years ago by Tommy richard · Reply

  • I sort of think so too. Even with half the support of voters , I think BN will take more than half the seats contested. Redeliniation, enticement and divide and rule added together with the natural human tendency to follow winners and he nature of the first past the post electoral system will ensure that BN wins.

    Posted 6 years ago by Nehru Sathiamoorthy · Reply

    • eh nehru, go back to fixing ur ugly ass instagram u gay faggot

      https://www.instagram.com/nehrusathiamoorthy

      Posted 6 years ago by Tommy richard · Reply