THE future of Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan – for the next five years will be decided today. 

Although six states go to the polls, Selangor has emerged as a key battleground for the unity coalition of Pakatan Harapan (PH) - Barisan Nasional (BN) and their rival Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Political pundits have mixed views on which way Selangor, the “crown jewel” state of PH, will go. 

Some say PN has the chance to win, depending on the Malay swing and voter turnout, while others are confident PH will retain the state which it had held for the past 15 years. 

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said the state of Selangor has the most potential to tumble from the current administration compared to Kedah and Negeri Sembilan. 

He said PN has aggressively campaigned in Selangor and Negri Sembilan, while PH and BN were more focused on defeating PAS, a component party of PN, in Kedah.

According to Hisommudin, the Malay-majority seats could potentially decide the next administration of Selangor. 

“Why is Selangor vulnerable to a change of state government? This is because there is space for changes to take place in 34 Malay-majority seats in the richest state,” Hisommudin told The Malaysian Insight. 

The research centre director said the voting pattern of the previous general election (GE) was an indicator of why PN could probably have the edge over the other coalitions in the state. 

Despite the formation of the unity government, which saw long-time enemies PH and BN working under one roof, Hisommudin said the voting pattern has not changed drastically. 

“Based on the voting pattern of the GE, PN succeeded in creating a surprise in the Malay-majority areas in Selangor. 

“Based on current developments, this pattern does not show any change.

“Hence, PN needs to shift more than 20% of the Malay vote to ensure they pass the 29 seats margin, especially in the Malay-majority seats,” he said. 

PN rode on the “green wave” during the GE and are expecting a similar response from voters. 

In the last GE, of the 22 parliamentary seats in Selangor, PN won six seats while PH won 16 seats. 

The composition of the Selangor state assembly prior to the dissolution shows PH had 40 seats and BN (5), while PN had five seats.

Other seats were held by candidates from PBM, Warisan and Pejuang.

The opposition’s charge in Selangor is led by former Selangor Menteri Besar Mohamed Azmin Ali. 

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar, meanwhile had an opposite opinion compared to Hisommudin.

The political science assistant professor said PN might not be successful in capturing enough seats in Selangor. 

“This is because Bersatu mainly depends on PAS but the Islamist party is not strong in Selangor.

“There are enough urban seats that could help PH-BN to victory,” he said. 

A total of 56-seats will be up for contest in the polls. 

Among the top battles in Selangor include current Selangor caretaker Menteri Besar Amuridin Shari taking on PN’s Muhammad Hanif Jamaluddin and Independent Suman Gopal in Sungai Tua.

In Hulu Kelang, PN state chief Azmin will take on Amirudin’s political secretary Juwairiya Zulkifli of PKR.

Amirudin yesterday announced Monday will be a public holiday in Selangor, should PH-BN win the election. 

Kedah

Besides Selangor, pundits also had contrasting views of Kedah.

Hisommudin was of the view that PN will retain Kedah, while Tunku Mohar believes caretaker Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor’s recent image may bring down the curtain on the state leadership. 

“While Sanusi is popular, more Kedah folk have begun to have reservations about him,” Tunku Mohar said.

“The more he opens his mouth, the more people think about his contributions, or lack thereof.

“Meanwhile, PH and BN leaders also actively campaigned in Kedah, offering guarantees that the federal government would assist the state better through a unity government there,” he added. 

Besides Selangor and Kedah, pundits believe that it will be a status quo in the other four states. 

Negri Sembilan and Penang are expected to be retained by the unity coalition, while Kelantan and Terengganu are expected to be in the bag for PAS, who lead the fight for PN. –  August 12, 2023.