BARISAN Nasional (BN) parties Umno, MIC and MCA are at an important crossroads and are all fighting for relevance and survival. There is increasing speculation that Umno may not do well in the six-state elections scheduled for August 12 and that the party will be further weakened. MIC and MCA have decided to sit out the elections in order to prevent a further drubbing at the hands of the voters. 

These once powerful political parties are now a shadow of their former selves. Umno’s problems were mainly self-made, and the trouble-ridden party had also weakened its coalition partners. Some parties have left. I do not see a turnaround for MCA and MIC unless Umno revives and re-invents itself as the two parties have been dependent on Umno for long. The coalition concept will still be valid in the present and future due to the country’s regional, ethnic and religious diversity. Umno, MIC and MCA can re-group in the future under BN and vie for power in a more vibrant and competitive democracy with Pakatan Harapan (PH), BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN). The unfolding situation situation in the country allows for the future existence of three main political groups – west coast parties such as PH, east coast parties such as PN, and BN seeking nationwide support due to its past domination. 

In the next constituency delineation, at least 20 to 30 more seats due to the population increase will be created from the present 222 and the electoral contest could be tight, providing more chances to various parties. Umno is not going to disappear as it has done much for the Malay community. What it is going through now is a tough transitional phase. The party could recover by doing reasonably well in the state elections in the six states. Much will depend on the number of seats Umno wins and should it do well it can continue being part of the government for the next four years. Much can happen to the party in the interim, with new leaders emerging who will help the party re-invent itself and win back the confidence, support and trust of its members. The main duty of the present leadership is to ensure that the party survives and revives using the opportunity provided by the unity government. Umno has the spirit, dynamism and resources to cope with the present bleak scenario.

Hence, Umno is in a situation better than MCA or MIC. Both these parties, which are sitting out the state elections, could also attempt to restore their fortunes like Umno. They can request for senatorial positions or be given some government posts that will help them to implement some good programmes for their communities to slowly win back their support. As coalition partners within the unity government, they can demand some influential administrative positions. These parties need not fold up but face the challenges and transform themselves. Politics is the art of the possible and no one can predict what the future beholds. The presently popular PH could turn out to be lacklustre and uninspiring if it cannot fulfil its election manifesto.

BN could spring to life in the 16th general election. Much will depend on the government’s success in implementing its manifesto. If it fails to fulfil its reforms and socio-economic agendas, the 16th general election could be a free-for-all. With the number of young voters increasing and the constituency delineations to reduce lopsided variations in the number of voters will result in at least 20 to 30 additional parliamentary seats in future elections, Malaysia could have not two but three coalitions – PH, BN and PN. The Sabah and Sarawak coalitions will join any of these groupings to form the government. Coalitions are here to stay and it could be PH and BN or PN and BN that will administer the country in the future. 

What the nation is going through is an ephemeral political transition due to  electoral shifts, political preference of voters, promises of reforms and change of leaders. The political situation will stabilise in the near future. As for now much will depend on how well Umno fares in the state elections overall and if it manages to win a reasonable number of seats it could also help its long-time partners – MIC and MCA, have a better future together. – August 2, 2023.

* V. Thomas reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.