THE clock is ticking down today on the deal that allows Ukraine to export its grain via the Black Sea, with the agreement set to expire at midnight Istanbul time (2100 GMT).

In Ukraine, Kyiv reported fierce fighting on its eastern frontline yesterday, as Russian President Vladimir Putin called Kyiv’s counteroffensive a failure.

There was no word from talks in Istanbul, where Turkish and United Nations officials are trying to persuade Russia to agree to another extension of the deal first signed there in July 2022.

Over the course of the last year, the Black Sea grain initiative has enabled the export in cargo of more than 32 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain.

But that traffic has come to a halt because of Russia’s refusal so far to renew the deal.

“The applications have not been approved by all parties,” said a statement from the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) that oversees the agreement. “No new ships have been approved to participate since 27 June.”

The last cargo ship cleared by the signatories to the deal – Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN – Turkish bulk carrier TQ Samsun, was headed across the Black Sea from the Ukrainian port of Odesa towards Istanbul, the Marine Traffic website showed late yesterday.

Russia’s objections

On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was optimistic about the prospects of the deal being renewed again.

But his claim that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin saw eye to eye on the matter did not find an echo in Moscow, as a Kremlin spokesman quickly said they had made no such declaration.

Putin has repeatedly threatened to pull out of the agreement, arguing that elements of the deal allowing the export of Russian food and fertilisers had not been honoured.

“The main goal of the deal, namely the supply of grain to countries in need, including on the African continent, has not been implemented,” he said on Saturday, in a phone conversation with South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa.

According to data from the JCC, China and Turkey are the main beneficiaries of the grain shipments, as well as developed economies.

The deal has helped the World Food Programme bring relief to countries facing critical food shortages such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Yemen.

This helps explain why UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres has been working hard to get the deal renewed. He supports removing hurdles to Russia exporting its fertilisers and sent Putin a letter on the subject on Tuesday.

He also met senior figures in the European Union last week to discuss the effect of the sanctions they imposed on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine. But there has been no public statement on their talks.

Fierce fighting

On the ground in Ukraine, Kyiv has admitted its highly anticipated counteroffensive on the eastern front has encountered fierce resistance.

On Friday, Ukraine said it had over the past week advanced nearly 2km around the southern city of Melitopol, occupied by Russia shortly after the war began. Some analysts think their aim is to push down towards the Sea of Azov to cut Russian lines and isolate Russian-occupied Crimea.

But on yesterday, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Malyar said: “The situation has somewhat intensified in the east.

“For two days in a row, the enemy has been actively attacking in the Kupiansk sector in the Kharkiv region. We are on the defensive,” Malyar wrote on Telegram.

She nevertheless said Ukrainian forces are “gradually moving forward” near the eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russian forces seized in May.

“People should understand what price we pay for (advancing),” a commander on the ground, “Bulat”, told AFP. “There are a lot of enemies. We need time to grind them down.”

Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched in June with the help of heavy weapons supplied by western countries, has so far made slow progress, advancing into territory the Russian forces have had time to fortify and protect with minefields.

In a televised interview broadcast yesterday, Putin said: “All enemy attempts to break through our defences… have not succeeded since the offensive began. The enemy is not successful.” – AFP, July 17, 2023